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Snowy L

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Everything posted by Snowy L

  1. 2013 was the last time we had a split around this time of year, happened on the 6th of Jan. The 2nd half of January saw a weak block to our NorthEast but it gave tonnes of snow to some places. The main cold spell happened in March though.
  2. Looks like an immediate trop response to the vortex being pushed to Siberia to me. Hopefully the ensembles follow but encouraging to see the oP go for this twice in a row.
  3. Strange. I can understand going for wet and mild in the next 3 weeks as the vortex is pushed towards our side of the globe, but some of those 300h+ charts show a noticeable lack of vortex over Canada and Greenland.
  4. Cant be certain without actually measuring the gradient, but the current decline does look more gradual than previous cycles, even a bit more gradual than 23. Looking at the graph, Cycle 24 sees a 98 sunspot decline in 49 months, so 2 sunspots per month Cycle 23 has a decline of 171 sunspots in 68 months which is 2.5 sunspots per month. Cycles 22 and 21 look far steeper than both.
  5. So for the last week ECM has been too far east now everything is too far west.
  6. Looks to me like the closest set of runs are actually below the mean in FI too. Does look as though D7-10 the high will be stuck a bit but hopefully another shot will see it to Greenland after that.
  7. I dont think the UKMO would be that great beyond t144. As mentioned already GFS has those lows splitting in the Atlantic which allows another Atlantic high to build, and this acts as a guide for the Scandi High to migrate to Greenland. D6-8 is the one to watch, need to see those lows split.
  8. Great to see that huge low pressure anomaly over central Europe.
  9. Thats common anyway and happens even more when at solar maximum and declining from solar maximum, as seen in 4 of the last 5 winters. We are pretty much at solar minimum now, solar flux has been at background or close to background levels so hopefully we should be seeing more winters where the Atlantic isnt completely dominant in early winter. We saw a bit of that last winter. As for the cold in November argument, we are at least 2 weeks away from seeing a potential cold block. That brings us into the end of November and by then if you get a cold block in place it will defiitely be cold enough for low level snow. I have no problem with us getting these synoptics now. Im just happy the cold block didnt happen in October/early November as that definitely would have been a waste.
  10. Those ground temps are actually lower than our average temperature of October so far (CET is 12.4c so far), so not worried at all about ground temps. Land is awful at retaining heat so it really would only take a couple cold days to make them fine.
  11. If we establish the block I think fears of it being too early will fade quickly. That Greenland High in the 06z GFS for example is only 10 days before the cold spell of 2010 started. Scandinavia looks like it will cool down quite a bit during the next week or so too.
  12. 20C and sunny today. Not ready to let go of this warm weather. That can happen after the clocks go back. I see people getting excited at a possible easterly or northerly. I don't think they realise that means 8C and rain at this time of year, not snow.
  13. Snowy L

    World Economy

    Yeah lets keep the demographic pyramid scheme going indefinitely, what could go wrong! Take the hit now and learn to live with an economy with a maintained population or be stuck in an economic system that needs constant population growth to work.
  14. The overnight temperatures look interesting too with many areas staying above 20C. Surely close to breaking a record there?
  15. Some social media is bad yes. I think Twitter is almost single-handedly responsible for the vile political "discourse" we have seen in the last 5 years.
  16. One more day of this trash and then back to normal thankfully.
  17. Sorry if my poor joke scared everyone off. Currently 30C here with sunny spells.
  18. Ok I keep seeing summer's over and huge downgrade posts, so I look at the models myself, expecting low pressure systems all over the UK and instead I see a huge high pressure sat right on top of the UK from Thursday through the whole run pretty much. What is wrong with this thread lol.
  19. Model thread is confusing. People seeing 27C and sunny as "downgrades" yet getting excited for cloud and 40c. Keep thinking summer is over with all the downgrade talk when in reality the downgrades are better than the upgrades.
  20. Well I can hear a lot of crashes but Im not sure if its thunder or the binmen.
  21. They had 28c and thunderstorms for most of the afternoon. The reality was 32C and mostly sunny except for a light 2 minute shower. So yes they are terrible.
  22. 32C now was not expecting it to keep warming up.
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