Snowy L

Whole region gets buried.

Trying not to get excited at the ECM. Wow.

At this time I still think they were using out of date FAX charts showing the low up in Scotland. Most models have it moving through midlands/Northern England now plus more disrupted.

This afternoon's UKMO an absolute bank for our region, North Midlands in with a shout for an all snow event on Thursday/Friday if trends continue.

Hello darkness my old friend Some showers are really intensifying around North Midlands/Yorkshire area at the moment though.

Surprise snow flurry here! Only very light stuff though.

Yes this connection has been going on all week and I can't make sense of it. Does Wednesday's low being further north mean it's a stronger system which kinds of draws the next low closer to its path? Anyway was not expecting that ICON that is a good 300 mile shift south.

Looks like GFS is going for bowling ball too. Oddly the low disrupts during Wednesday but then regains shape in time to blast England with rain? Would say it's nonsensical but anything that keeps snow away from England seems to always make perfect sense in recent years. I've never known such terrible luck and timing until this winter. So much promise yet easily the most frustrating winter I've lived through. ICON, UKMO and GFS all singing from the same hymnsheet and we are running out of time to reverse it unfortunately.

No I mean the met office warning states that southern areas have the highest chance of snow and I've posted the wet bulb showing northern areas are closer to the wet bulb freezing level.

Interesting that the Met say the highest risk of snow tonight is in the South of the warning area but the lowest wet bulb temperatures are clearly towards the NorthEast of the warning area. Definitely not bringing this up out of Imby desperation by the way

Approaching 100ml of precipitation in some parts of the UK by next Monday. There really is potential for huge snowfalls in the lucky spot.

Met Office have given up too! One of the most bizarre periods of model watching I've ever witnessed. The fact we have a monster of an Iberian High yet we're still in with a shout of snow is pretty unheard of too.

I've noticed a few times now where the further South Wednesday's low is modeled, the further North Thursday's low is? Any reasons for this, would think if Wednesday is further South then Thursday should be too. It's happened on the 18z, not a good run this, game over for England and Wales by Thursday night.

It looks a lot worse than the complicated reality imo. In Edinburgh the average remains at -5 or below throughout. Small corrections South and the same could end up being true for much of England.

Look at the difference in Spain between GFS/UKMO and ECM. Northern Spain going green in the former two this afternoon, still orange with the ECM. Hopefully ECM comes on board with weakening those heights later.

Azores high in retreat, the smallest of further weakenings could bring huge results.

Looks like a snow line Manchester northwards to me? In this scenario with battleground snow, surface cold still there and winds coming from the area with the surface cold I'd imagine uppers of -2/-3C would be enough.

A further 200 mile shift South and much of England is buried under an endless stream of battleground snow Need to see similar trough disruption with UKMO and ECM.

Baby steps but out to day 5 that's a bit better than the 06z.

The cold spell, which hasn't even begun yet, is over this time in 4 days according to the ICON...

Yep as usual we've got the worst of both worlds. Prolong the dry cold just to have a rain event for our troubles.

Three weeks model watching just for a 2 day cold snap, what a waste. Why is this country allergic to snow.

Looking at the strat there is zero indication of the PV trying to get back into the Arctic or even reforming in the first place. In fact we still have a strong high pressure in the Greenland/Easy Canada region so it's a bit odd the GFS is so desperate to move the PV back to a normal position when things are still the opposite of normal up above.

Just 4 out of the 17 going up and of those 4 2 of them come right back down again. Much improved from yesterday.

It's a complicated one because the enemy for this cold spell and certainly the last one in December is Azores ridging. We actually want an injection of progressiveness in the Atlantic to keep the slider conveyer belt going so that the Azores doesn't get the opportunity to ridge in betwen Atlantic lows. This run demonstrating perfectly how good things can get if we get some but not too much consistent Atlantic energy.