KTtom

My personal feelings was that this SSW was far too late to help the UK into a wintry spell, but boy, I do hope it knocks us out of the diabolical pattern we seem to be stuck in..GFS for next weekend dominated by yet another UK limpet low with knowhere to go!

Well if the day 10 snow charts that have been posted had verified we would all be fed up of the stuff by now! Hopefully, models are a bit more accurate with predicting high pressure...GFS Op hinting we may be able to dry off soon...

RJBingham Totally agree, as a golfer, its hard to believe in 15 weeks time the course will be parched where its currently a mass of puddles..our weather seems to be becoming more defined with less variety.. here its dry and warm April to July with vertually 0 rain, then deluge for the next 8 months! Anyway, ECM sums it up nicely for the start of spring ..as we were, Azores and Ruski high, trough over UK with no-where to go!

RJBingham Im afraid Im seeing little to get my hopes up of any change in the next 2 weeks either to cold or more importantly dry, PV looks as organised as it can be for start of spring...strong Azores high = westerly and unsettled conditions being the predominant pattern.

Question... just reading the latest off topic posts in the Mod thread, why is someone who doesnt insist we are going into the freezer a 'Troll' ??

raz.org.rain unfortunately the garden path has now come up against a brick wall...Spring! Some still thinking of March in the 80's etc...my personal opinion is there is no chance of low level snow for England and Wales in March these days let alone the back end. Edit: Just realised this is the wrong thread

Just twigged with the subtle change of slightly higher chances of an easterly, then they changed the word easterly to westerly yesterday as if to sweep it in under the radar without anyone noticing... embarrassing!

Methuselah To fair ive been tempted to paint the outside of my house xmas day for the last 10 years!

I normally go from winter preference to summer around mid March, this year Ive totally given up on Winter already. Given my location, I have to accept mid Feb is mid March in the 00's. Just want some sun now, not fussed about temperature for the next month or so. My lawn is ridiculous for Mid Feb, 1stly its too wet to cut and secondly I would be just too embarrassed doing it this time of year..it i had a quiet mower I would do it at midnight!

Johnp yes, checked out the 850' s when I saw that chart...shocked just how far the -5 isotherm is away from the UK ! Colours at 500hpa misleading .

johncam Just been down the garden for a smoke and there was one of those fat bodied spiders you get in autumn making a web on a bush...obviously survived the winter!

northwestsnow Having seen some of Norway from the sky, I would think Dennis has done very well this winter..ideal pattern,Atlantic low after low crashing into Norway whilst entrenched in the Scandinavian cold..like Finland I would say Norway has had copious amounts of snow this winter. Back to our miserable back yard...just give us some sunshine! Please!

feb1991blizzard using that anology, how would you describe tonights ECM

Cloud 10 Not such an intense low modelled overnight but still the theme of dropping a lobe of vortex down over the UK. It looks quite impressive when viewing the H500 charts in terms of cold potential, however when viewing 850 chart the lows are just pumping warm air up into europe and Scandinavia with the deep cold retreating back to the arctic.

I do agree with all signs pointing to a colder (won't take much) spell during the last week of February. Currently, northern coasts and hills should see some snow. Is it worth getting excited about?, going by the trend over the last couple of years, absolutely not. We are still looking 300 odd hours away, baring in mind how other cold spells this year have dwindled away as they got within the reliable, plus taking into account we are a stones throw from Spring, you can certainly understand people scepticism, doesn't mean they are winding people up! Some people on here have been seeing snow potential since September, some have never seen it.. the latter have been more accurate.

RJBingham its an outlier

daz_4 indeed, you are looking at nearer -10 uppers required from a northerly that late in Feb / early March for lowland lying snow.

Ill settle for the ECM 216 please...

Ali1977 unfortunately Ali, due to CC I think these days we would need the Synoptic pattern mid Feb to deliver what BFTE devivered late Feb 6 years ago, and no model is hinting this type of pattern change yet.

Lukesluckybunch yes, anyone who sees any sort of potential in the overnight runs clearly has their device upside down! Maybe a crumb in the ens for end of the month but we know how fickle these are..

Alderc 2.0 Didnt that happen Jan 29th, well 19.9 rounded up ?

Nick F Thats a shame, I find this thread truly fascinating in that we can have a good old fashioned debate without it occurring on the MOD thread with various posts going AWOL. FWIW im sure the members are 50/50 split on this, personally im in your court. 1 thing is for sure, no matter what your knowledge on x, y and z. It hasnt helped anyone in forecasting our weather over the last year or so..March 2023, August 2023 and this winter are ones that jump at me. No issues with how strongly people feel about whatever tools you use, but again agree with Nick, some need to work on how they come accross. Need a similar thread next year.. hopefully not a post mortem one tho.

Maybe a little consistancy showing for the last week or so of Feb with a UK high. Some much sought after sunshine on the cards. After that, as we've seen in Jan, always a chance this will migrate north west..will it happen in time for one last cold snap??

Penguin16 It is getting a bit uncomfortable to read now, if 'coldies' were a dog there is no way they would still be allowed to suffer this long

Overnight ops sobering us up after last nights party as usual. Pretty bog standard late winter / early spring set up as the winter vortex breaks up yet the UK still manages to remain in a south westerly courtesy of the high to the south west. The 'UK low' really has been a killer in terms of Feb, after hanging around the UK for an eternity, it then trundles off to Norway to prevent a nice little barrier to the arctic high trying to head in our direction!