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anvilcrawler

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    The Midlands - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Everything has gone further West than expected, so I really am not too sure. If that band of rain to the South turns convective, then there is a good chance. Unfortunately all the convection is to the East at the moment.

     

    According to Netweather, Warwickshire has a decent chance later.

     

    Everything has gone further West than expected, so I really am not too sure. If that band of rain to the South turns convective, then there is a good chance. Unfortunately all the convection is to the East at the moment.

     

    According to Netweather, Warwickshire has a decent chance later.

    Ty here's hoping 

    Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Did Estofex get it completely wrong for France today? [unless it's all going to kick off later - not much sign of it at the moment]...FranceAhead of the deepening Atlantic trough, increasing south-westerly winds will be associated with low-level warm air advection through-out the period. Steep lapse rates up to 600 hPa present over the Iberian plateau will spread north-east into southern and central France. In the boundary layer, rich moisture is still present as indicated by latest observations and the 12 UTC Bordeaux sounding, so that high CAPE values will likely result in response to diurnal heating.Thermal low over Iberia due to strong heating ahead of the approaching cold front will enhance easterly low-level winds across north-east Spain and southern/central France with a pronounced convergence across south-west France along the sea-breeze. Moisture pooling will result in 0-500m low-level mixing ratio up to 14 g/kg, and models predict CAPE values in the order of 2-3 kJ. Further east, low-level moisture will be party mixed out. Initiation becomes likely over south-west France in the afternoon/evening due an approaching mid-level vort-max and associated decreasing temperatures above the boundary-layer.Explosive storm development is expected. 15 m/s 0-3 km vertical wind shear and 200 m²/s² 0-3 km SRH will support supercells capable of producing large or even very large hail. Limiting factor is rather weak CAPE in the hail growth zone. Additionally, a tornado is not ruled out, especially along the sea-breeze convergence. Upscale growth into a convective system becomes likely in the evening hours given the favorable thermodynamic environment along a convergence line forming to the northeast. Bow echoes due to rapidly moving cold pools and storm mergers along the leading gust front will be capable of producing high winds. Excessive rain and high winds may also affect western central or even northern France during the night hours, before the storms weaken due to limited moisture.

    Did Estofex get it completely wrong for France today? [unless it's all going to kick off later - not much sign of it at the moment]...FranceAhead of the deepening Atlantic trough, increasing south-westerly winds will be associated with low-level warm air advection through-out the period. Steep lapse rates up to 600 hPa present over the Iberian plateau will spread north-east into southern and central France. In the boundary layer, rich moisture is still present as indicated by latest observations and the 12 UTC Bordeaux sounding, so that high CAPE values will likely result in response to diurnal heating.Thermal low over Iberia due to strong heating ahead of the approaching cold front will enhance easterly low-level winds across north-east Spain and southern/central France with a pronounced convergence across south-west France along the sea-breeze. Moisture pooling will result in 0-500m low-level mixing ratio up to 14 g/kg, and models predict CAPE values in the order of 2-3 kJ. Further east, low-level moisture will be party mixed out. Initiation becomes likely over south-west France in the afternoon/evening due an approaching mid-level vort-max and associated decreasing temperatures above the boundary-layer.Explosive storm development is expected. 15 m/s 0-3 km vertical wind shear and 200 m²/s² 0-3 km SRH will support supercells capable of producing large or even very large hail. Limiting factor is rather weak CAPE in the hail growth zone. Additionally, a tornado is not ruled out, especially along the sea-breeze convergence. Upscale growth into a convective system becomes likely in the evening hours given the favorable thermodynamic environment along a convergence line forming to the northeast. Bow echoes due to rapidly moving cold pools and storm mergers along the leading gust front will be capable of producing high winds. Excessive rain and high winds may also affect western central or even northern France during the night hours, before the storms weaken due to limited moisture.

    A friend of mine currently in France say that they been tornado warned for next 2 days
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