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Everything posted by Timmytour

  1. I think there's room for both if it's mooted that things are looking a whole lot better for the second half of August. I'd expect the anomalies to be picking this up in the next couple of days if that's the case....
  2. I really don't understand why an adjustment downward of 0.5C needs to be made. Now a 2.5C downward one would be much more in tune with what my estimate for the month was.....
  3. Not sure I go along completely with your second paragraph. I think prior to the heatwave the month was exceptionally warm when considering the cloudy weather that accompanied it for many of us. I think this is what has given the month a lot of its impetus which the heatwave was able to build on. I've been struck with how warm the nights have been all month. While very nice, I'm not sure the heatwave was particularly exceptional, bar the minima. For example it's pretty much certain that this month will end up a fair bit warmer than July 2019, but the latter delivered up a five day period of successive daily means above 20C and a maximum in excess of anything we saw this July.. I think the longest sustained run of daily mean CETs at or above 20C was between the 8th and 17th July in 1983. followed by 9 in August 2003 and runs of 8 in the Augusts of 1947, 1995 and 1997 and the July of 1976. It wouldn't surprise me if this July makes it into that list as well, not so much because of the heatwave but because of the relative high minima that we've seen.
  4. In terms of average daily max temps, this is how July and August split into four quarters fare, ranked 1-4 (or Hot to Cold) in terms of the warmest The warmest period is split fairly evenly between the first three quarters, with the first half of August just pipping the first half of July for second place. However there is a slight tendency for the second half of August to be warmer than the the first half of August in the years where the second half of July is the warmest quarter, as it is nigh on certain to be this year. That said, when the second half of July is the warmest, the first half of July is the coldest as often as the two halves of August combined. Got a feeling however this year, looking at the models, we are heading for a 2-1-4-3 pattern similar to 2001
  5. I believe the proper Netweather term for the bit I've highlighted in bold is "nae bad" Mind you, I've not seen it used much of late which is probably a fair indication of where the model output has been heading these past few days!
  6. It was my first day of freedom yesterday after a spell of imprisonment for catching Covid so I wandered down the the local yesterday afternoon where one of my favorite local singers was booked to perform in the outside garden Before doing so, knowing I was unlikely to be returning before the hours of darkness, I closed the windows in my kitchen and pulled down the blind. While I was in the pub, fortunately within a marquee, right on cue as she began her performance, the heavens opened and I mean opened. I would struglle to recall a time when I have seen it rain with as much intensity for as long as it did. In fact, incredibly, it eased up while she was on her break and then came again with the same intensity and duration when she started up again! I duly started making up for lost time in the pub and eventually at some point in time arrived home, a fact I am only aware of through the knowledge that I woke up in my bed this morning! Upon opening the blind in the kitchen, I was astounded at the number of house flies that had accumulated behind it! I opened the window and nearly all disappeared, though a couple of unlucky ones ended up getting closer to the window than I imagine they would have liked to get! I've not come across this before. I only moved here last year so hadn't experienced summer rain like that before with the blinds closed. However, a couple of months ago we had torrential rain, a day after which I noticed some earth below my back door and then a load of ants responsible for putting it there. Going across to the shop to get some ant powder, I met a mate who was in there to do the same having come across the same problem in his house! I presume the collection of flies within the blinds, and the intrusion of ants into my house, were connected with the respective downpours. Is this a fair assumption on my part and, if so, is there an explanation of some sorts for it I can understand the ants I suppose but does heavy rain encourage flies into seeking refuge in a house even more than they usually do? Are there any other peculiar traits concerning weather extremes and nature in this country?
  7. If his record on better outlooks is as good as his record on cold outlooks, I'd say that's cause for optimism..... meanwhile the models that didn't account for the development of a low pressure system off the beach of Florida appear to have been on the money....
  8. Couldn't agree more...I say the same about Kerry and for that matter Devon and Cornwall.
  9. Matt I'm guessing by the first map that ECM is discounting the possibility suggested by NHC here? Or if such a system did end up forming, would it have blown out by 3rd August anyway?
  10. My classic was going for a five week holiday in Kerry as a kid which I thought beforehand was great! Only it was the summer of 1976 and when I went back after the summer holidays I was the only white kid in school!
  11. Working from home just outside London while regularly listening to Radio Kerry it's been very bizarre on quite a few days over this summer to listen to them talking about beautiful sunshine and warmth while I'm listening to the rain pouring down outside. At times I've had to pinch myself to remember they are broadcasting from Kerry! also, I find it incredible that, after just two of three days of fne warm weather, they invariably start talking about water shortages. What on earth happens to all the water out there! I know from the experience of many fortnight holidays spent out there that it comes in abundance!
  12. Just a wild stab in the dark here, but I'm going to guess that Alderc was referring to a place about 4 miles north of Dubrovnik I've scrutinized his original post in minute detail and believe I've stumbled across a clue that has been left in the subtext which would be hard for anyone to have picked up apart from most people.
  13. I think the average daily Min CET in 2013 was less than 13C. I'm guessing we've hardly had a min that low this month! The nights have been the biggest driver of such a relatively high mean CET
  14. We sure did have some beautiful weather for the time I had to spend in isolation. I'm allowed back out tomorrow so although the greyness has already come back, I imagine I'll have to wait til them before I see the rain!
  15. Based on what we've had and what the models currently show, July 16th to 31st looks set to extend its lead as the warmest quarter of July and August, based on average daily max CETs during 2000 -2020 This would make it the 9th time in 22 years so over 40% of the time. With the 1st to 15th August in second place, it kind of puts to rest the gut feeling I had about the weather getting worse when the school summer holidays started! The strange thing to me is how the first half of July is more often the coldest then it is the hottest! In fact it's been the coldest as many times as the second half of August, when summer is arguably on the wane, though of course the sea temps probably assist the latter. Following goes on a scale of Hot - Warm - Cool - Cold. to represent order only and not actual temps..... For Comparison....here's the figures for 1980-2000
  16. I would imagine it's not only a high spot of the month for Sheffield, but right up there in the highest spots ever seen?
  17. Did you ever find the source of the claim from sometime back that predicted a cool August for north west Europe? Looks very close to the money judging by this!
  18. Clouding over here now from the east.....is that it for the sustained sunshine for some time?
  19. Sod the rest of summer, I'm gonna start getting excited for winter!
  20. I think it looks like St Swithin's is losing! If the modelled change of weather at the end of this week for the worse comes off, it will in my opinion follow the pattern that I've noticed over the past 15 years of so (just going by gut feel I hasten to add) It seems to be that this time of year, coinciding with the schools breaking up for summer, has often seen a marked change in the weather to a pattern that sticks around for a while - like a mini verion of St Swithins. Unfortunately the change is more often than not for the worse...
  21. The big standoff at the moment seems to be the Models v St Swithin......
  22. Gorgeous day out there and a nick week in prospect. More's the pity I can't go out in it beyond my back garden! I can guarantee it will all change next Sunday when I can! Taking my washing off the line earlier was like taking it out of a tumble dryer!
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