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phil nw.

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Everything posted by phil nw.

  1. This slow moving pattern with a southerly tracking jet continues to be modeled. Looking at the 12z ECM run for instance for days 3 and 6 This setup shows further trough development digging down towards Iberia encouraging further thundery type lows heading up our way.The one upside with this is the brief import of warmth and humidity it will bring to some areas from the continent between the rain bands. No doubt Summer has started on a very unsettled and wet note quite widely with the Azores high yet to make any impression further north towards the UK.
  2. A couple of off topic posts have been removed. Casual chat and banter should now be posted into the general winter thread. Model discussions only in here now please. Thanks all.
  3. A little bit of a cool off in week 2 as the warmth from the far south eases with more of an Atlantic influence showing as the upper flow veers towards more of south west to west as the high becomes less amplified. ECM mean for days 5/10 A look at the 2m temperature gefs anomalies for 5 day means from day 1-5 and then 10-14 show the cool off The overall picture though still shows mild for the next 2 weeks with much of any rainfall more likely over western and northern fringes on the periphery of the high. No real change to the polar profile with low heights remaining steadfast to our north right to the end of the Winter quarter.A pretty uneventful mild and quiet period set to bring the curtain down on a pretty nondescript "cold" season.
  4. UkMO and GFS 12z runs look to be repeating the 500 hPa pattern next week after some Atlantic interference over the weekend. Day 6 The return of the Euro high with energy still spilling off the Canadian trough into Mid-Atlantic advecting more sub-tropical air northwards over w.Europe and the UK.Away from the north west it looks another largely dry and mild week with more sunshine and afternoon temperatures well into the teens again.
  5. ECM Op.day 5 shows the Atlantic making temporary inroads early next week as fronts move across as suggested by GFS also but agreement that the Euro heights return pretty quickly afterwards The Atlantic trough continuing to be renewed from the Canadian vortex-a persistent theme of the Winter.
  6. The Euro block for want of a better term remains steadfast in the face of the Atlantic with only the far north west coming under any influence in the next few days. A snapshot of Friday shows plenty of warmth wafting up from the sub tropics bringing afternoon highs well above average across much of Europe and the UK Little changes next week as we view the 5 day mean NH 500 hPa pattern and temperature profiles The mid-Atlantic trough against the Euro block continuing to bring in mild air from the south or south west although the idea of weak fronts crossing the UK is more likely next week with the high retreating temporarily before re-amplifying.
  7. The expected High shows as building in the next few days but the gfs jetstream modeling shows plenty of energy heading across to the north which ultimately flattens the pattern at the end of the coming week. UKMO model showing a similar evolution day 3 and 6 with the 500 hPa charts As expected for this week really with fairly mild and quiet weather in a south westerly flow with signs of the Atlantic affecting the north later.
  8. Yes it was magical Sam.To get as far north as the edge of the Polar ice was something else.
  9. Yes Norway is a beautiful experience anytime of year.
  10. Certainly the eps clusters have backed off Greenland heights compared to 36 hrs ago when i last looked when around 40% was the main cluster for that trend. Latest for days 10 and 15 Plenty of support for an on going Euro/UK high but only around 20% support for any ridging gaining enough traction north or north west to create any possible cold interest.
  11. It makes sense to drop one of the 3 wicket keepers and bring back a so called specialist batsman,especially as Foulkes hasn't capitalised on his run scoring last year.Shame that Woakes isn't playing.
  12. Anyone still got some energy left for one more cold chase? I can understand all the doubts expressed over all this Winter's let downs but i always treat each new situation the same and look at what the outputs say,if they prove wrong then so be it. So a look at tonight's EPS clusters days 12-15 which a small majority cluster favouring a UK High moving nw towards Greenland.Still a decent cluster though for the Euro(milder)pattern. Day 12 day 15 A strong enough signal for a pattern change towards cold in a couple of weeks which are also showing in today's gfs runs so it has some support.We would be looking for low pressure to eventually undercut the high in order to bring in the cold though,something like cluster 3 above. This will not come about in the next week so another few days of model runs before we can start to gain confidence if this will happen. Still let's get this high established first and see where it goes bearing in mind we will likely to see a some milder days first before it(hopefully)moves nw.
  13. Yes the clearance of the Canadian lobe and movement of the main vortex to the Siberian side is what we want to see and is the first part of any future Heights to our nw. Just to add the building sub-tropical ridge is also a key part of it and it can bring a temporary mild interlude before the high goes north and we start to see the change to cold.
  14. Don't despair shaky.Give the sub-tropical ridging a chance to develop.If we are to see a cold block further north it won't happen in the next week or so.
  15. A glance at the MJO forecasts today show better agreement between the 2 ens suites of movement eastwards into phase 8 Decent amplitude in both so let's see if NWP start to trend towards the pattern showing in the climatic composites which is for +ve heights to our nw,similar to the 06z GFS operative run.
  16. These are the MSL pressure ens graphs for the areas we are looking to for height rises Scandinavia or Griceland as expected the ridging towards our ne is more likely in the shorter term.Much uncertainty further on wrt hts rising to our nw.Phase 8 of the mjo would suggest that evolution as we head towards week 3 similar to GFS 06z op run. Hard to say from this range if this will pan out but a trend worth watching for sure.
  17. A very mobile pattern for the next week at least and we are now in the situation of highlighting anything with a hint of a ridge as a respite from this west to east mobile +nao pattern which has never really left us through much of Winter. So a little cold snap around day 5 is the only sign of anything from the north a transient affair which may deliver some snowfall further north briefly but all rather underwhelming. It's likely we then see the high move in but apart from some frost it looks to be held too far south to promise any real cold from the north or east at this stage.
  18. Meanwhile back at the ranch signs that the downwelling effects at ground level,for what they were,are forecasted to weaken Weak positive mean zonal winds anomalies are set to return in a few days along with an increase at the top filtering down towards mid-level.
  19. The shredded pv has just not worked for us on this side of the pole with a large chunk held around Canada.It seems the best we got was the north westerlies feeding into a cold upper Euro trough over the last couple of weeks culminating in snowfall around the uk in recent days. The current modeling over the Arctic makes it difficult to see anything blocky up there and the signs of the pv reforming are not positive for cold. The best we can hope for is the suggestion of a building ridge over nw Europe around mid-month,showing in the ens.and this builds further north later on.The mjo is now showing in favourable phases 7/8 but there is usually a delay factor of these feeding through of around 10/14 days so let's not write Winter off yet.This hasn't exactly been a reliable factor so far but it is one possible positive in what are very poor outputs this evening.
  20. Yes the end of Winter when the polar night ends and the sun returns over the pole which gradually warms the top of the Stratosphere.Sometime in March but the date of final demise of the pv can vary time wise.
  21. 12z gefs still favouring the development of a high building in week 2.A slowing down of Atlantic mobility still looks the trend next week with a building ridge from the south.The current probability is of a high settling just south of the UK. Euro temp 2m 5 day anomalies days 11-15 Gentle south westerlies would then seem the order of the day,It well could feel quite pleasant where we see cloud breaks and the sun shines.
  22. Backed up by the lower Strat GFS forecast for day 10 at 100 hPa Looking at the 500 hPa ens alongside and they suggest the same evolution in week 2 as the 00z runs ie.a UK or maybe a Sceuro high.If we do get more amplification in the pattern then we cannot rule out this developing into a Scandi.high after mid-month,but that of course is speculation at the moment.
  23. Got to agree.That was bad,very poor batting ,many dismissals were odi shots and on a wicket with variable bounce hitting like that ain't wise.This was a strip where patience paid off as shown by the WI. Where we go from here lord knows.The thing is there seems no better batters around and we have tried just about all the current crop,some more than once and no one has established themselves.They have to change attitudes and start innings just to stay at the crease and learn to leave some balls go by the bat.It's basic stuff really but it's frustrating to see talented batsmen like Bairstow,Root,Stokes and Buttler getting out like this time and time again. Thinking about the bowling too.Whose waiting to step in when Broad and Anderson hang up their boots,which can't be too far away now?We need more pace for one and yes another decent spinner. We got a bit of sorting out to do and the Ashes coming up-oh dear.
  24. A good summary of the current outputs MWB. Just a glance at the gefs modeled jet profile for the next 15 days does show it gradually weakening as the upstream N.American pattern changes with the the upper trough modeled further west thus the feed of deep cold into the Atlantic retracts. Days 5/10/15 A gradual process but it would suggest a better chance of a building high towards the Uk from sub-tropical ridging in week 2 but in the meantime this coming week does look nailed on for milder westerlies with some rain bands. The 2m temp.ens graph pretty emphatic with this As can be seen the 00z GFS op is very much on the warm side though in week 2. Just for reference eps day 10 anomalies and flow. The idea of the jet easing somewhat week 2 suggests more chance of a settled spell but as ever depending on any high placement the surface could cool off somewhat with a return to some night frosts.Not sure we can expect anything better cold wise into mid-month based on these outputs. Quite disappointing from a cold point of view as we are now looking towards the second half of February for further pattern changes in order to see Winter out on a colder note.
  25. The latest fax's from the 12z runs showing the Atlantic moving in next week. Less cold air moving across with the frontal systems so temperatures generally closer to normal in the westerly flow. ECM mean for day 7 with the nh pattern showing little change out to the end of next week.
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