NeilN
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When was the last time a -16 / -20 upper hit the UK? 1986? 1979?
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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
NeilN replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
So where are we at the state of play re: the weather? I want some snow in Weston! Jealous of my relatives in the Midlands. -
February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
NeilN replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The coldest February in a long time: 1.9c and 56mm -
Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
NeilN replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sadly, I think this is the sign of the times. You'll never get the weather we had before. Sounds crazy, but what about nuking these fronts that are disrupting the cold? Perhaps a few up to the arctic could bring a man made SSW? -
Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?
NeilN replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That sounds lovely! I was only 1 at the time it happened, but my parents said it was a brutal winter month. Even if a watered down version more like 2010, 1996 or 2018 would be nice too. -
Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?
NeilN replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Completely agree with you. I think we're having a February 1986 repeat on our hands. -
Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?
NeilN replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well, it seems the handsome Chris Fawkes has said it will possibly turn colder from Thursday onwards on the Countryfile Forecast! There is hope, and a mild spell isn't the end of the world. -
January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
NeilN replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
If all this comes off with the models for a cold spell mid-month onwards, I can see a sub 2c month!! -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
NeilN replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know this isn't the right thread, but would this potentially throw a winter 85-86 outcome? -
Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
NeilN replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
How it's going so far, we're going to mild up for a bit - to be fair probably welcome for a lot of people, especially as we're all at home and got to stay in and save on heating costs. I do think it will snow, but February looks the "magic month" - I'll go for a nationwide spell the first fortnight of the month. This is more of an 08/09 style winter - decent, but better than what we've had. Best case (if an SSW does deliver cold and other things go our way but who knows) - an 85/86 clone - the January is looking similar, though to pull that February off will need luck. Even a watered down style one with an average of 1.5-2.8c would be a "win". -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
NeilN replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think early 2010 had us both in the freezer? Possibly some of the 1980s ones? I know Feb 1991, the UK was in the freezer and they had an unusually mild winter. -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
NeilN replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The thing is, these are predictions and I guess any outcome can come off. -
Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
NeilN replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It makes you wonder, is global warming neutering these fronts? Then again, perhaps it a case of wrong place, wrong time? I think this winter is more of an 08/09 than anything classic. -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
NeilN replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It seems like everything is on the table regarding the weather. I do think this mild spell will be less potent, but with these SSWs, it takes a while for it to pay off. To me this is more akin to early 2009.. -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
NeilN replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Just out of interest with the BBC and their Countryfile forecast - what model do they use? I know weather apps are unreliable, but for my location (Google's weather app) the highest is 4c, yet the BBC has me at 5-6c degrees for a couple of days this week. Are they seeing something we've not twigged on to, or is them just being a bit cautious / mild ramping with the temps? Personally looking at the models, it doesn't look that bad - but there's a long way to go, and from history and personal experience February seems to be the best month for snow. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
NeilN replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
West Based -NAO good or bad for cold prospects? -
January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
NeilN replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
1.3c and 66mm -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
NeilN replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don't they have a habit of underplaying things? -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
NeilN replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The BBC Countryfile forecast - where are they getting their temperatures from? -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
NeilN replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is what I had in mind. It does make you wonder, they've had an advance warning in regards to the weather but we'll have to see what happens! -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
NeilN replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Perhaps the weather models are letting us get the cold the long way round? I do think January is the magic month. -
Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?
NeilN replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Each run is different and with anomalies. Considering how bizzare this year has been, I am not ruling out any prospect of a cold winter. Perhaps the holy trinity of winters could see a new challenger? Remember December is not realiable. -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
NeilN replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes the models seem to be a bit dull and lifeless, but isnt it too early in the game? I'm sure many a good winter have started like this and have built upon it. As long as it stays dry and is cool is what matters.