Dunmurry Hedgehog

My knowledge of strat thread is very "threadbare" (pardon the poor pun) so to speak - but I thought that the charts are a lot more stable and accurate higher up in the atmosphere, and I seem to recall other warming events in other years being predicted at 300+ hours and working their way down to T0 quite often. It just seems that every time there is a glimmer of hope this year, the models find a newer way to to smash each and every cold chance to smithereens, and then dance on the grave for good measure!

I suspect that this will sound crazy with a very powerful PV sat over Eastern Canada/Western Greenland directing a series of lows across the Atlantic straight at us for weeks now, but it looks to me from your 500 mb charts that the pattern whilst being similar has moved between 5 & 10 degrees west. Do you think that this retrogression will be maintained, and if so, how much of a further correction would be needed to bring cold to our neck of the woods? Thanks in advance.

Any chance of the high in the Arctic splitting the vortexs over Canada & Northern Russia?

Have been watching for a number of years under a couple of different usernames and can make a reasonable stab at reading 850T, 500hPa and anomalie charts. However I would be grateful if you could give a few tips on reading the 500mb charts. I can understand your your point that if the high pressure to our east is not closed, then the high pressure feature is likely to be transient in nature. However the azores high in the atlantic has been very consistent (albeit ridging closer and pulling away sw on occasion), and often is not shown as a closed loop.Many thanks in advance

Yes it looks like that filling trough would drift away with ridging from the azores/atlantic anticyclone following in, similar to what the gfs has been showing for a while now.