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9 minutes ago, cobbett said:
Just needed an update..
Early DecMid DecLate DecEarly JanMid JanLate Jan ?
Early Feb
Mid Feb
Late Feb
Early March
Plenty oftime yet for winter to start !** for us down south
Excellent summary of how most of us are probably feeling on here, given that snowpocalypse is now off the table for January (except for all our friends in Scotland perhaps)! Time hasn't run out yet but we sure need to see something dramatic happening in the next four weeks for it to be memorable given that Spring will then be just around the corner. Just to show that this is possible, though, and to keep everyone's hopes alive, I have decided to risk a hail of criticism from the purists by posting the following CFS charts:
Yes, I know it's 900 hours away (27th February) and yes, I know they'll be gone tomorrow, but its worth looking at them because it shows a BFTE2019 is still possible, among the many millions of other possible ways the UK weather could go in the next 30 days. Who knows, it might come earlier. Or it might not happen at all.... All I know is that I will be here every day, like a mug, waiting for the models to show these conditions in the short term. But then I always check my lottery numbers too, and that never works.
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3 minutes ago, andymusic said:
gfs 18z steady as she goes - Monday night
OMG! Just seen your latest post above - if that Monday night snowfall is still being shown on Sundays charts I'm definitely travelling back Monday morning!
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42 minutes ago, andymusic said:
i'd say the earlier the better as the initial snow up till about Wednesday will/may depend on height 150m and above - after that the easterly kicks in
Thanks mate - I thought you might say that. Might try and get back Monday as it happens. Mind you, I think there might be worse conditions on the cards for the following week so anyone travelling after next weekend should keep a close eye on the forecasts.
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7 minutes ago, andymusic said:
ensembles will be out in a bit - outlier for ecm or not - apparently 10,000 years ago - last ice age - everything had to move out of Wales - even barrybados - glaciers just took over - must have been quite a sight - bit like the gfsp run tonight lol - 50cms in places on that run
Hi Andy. I've got to drive back from London one day next week - I can pick either Tuesday or Wednesday. Assuming I make it back down the M4 to make my first EVER free crossing back to Wales (at last!!) will I make it back along the rest of the M4 to Carmarthen, as things stand? What day would you choose - or neither??
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There is talk among some experienced posters on here about current model offerings recalling 'old school' charts. I believe they might be thinking of certain infamous winters of last century so I thought it would be worth putting up a couple of today's charts followed by charts from a similar period in 1947 and 1963, just to see if there is any resemblance at all. I think all the following charts hold enormous potential:
GFS 28/01/19
ECM 25/01/19
24/01/1947
17/01/1963
Are there any similarities between them? What do you think.....?
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Looking beyond the imminent arrival of cold conditions next week, the following week could be even colder! Just look at the way the models are predicting the conditions to evolve by the end of the month:
ECM
GFS
GEM.
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The ECM is showing exceptional cold for the 28th January. If these conditions verify then next week is just the precursor to an even colder spell at the end of the month when disruptive snow might be expected almost anywhere in the UK...
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3 minutes ago, saintkip said:
GFS is cold but dry, gone from 16cm of snow to none on tuesday.
Don't forget the old adage: "Get the cold in first....."!
.... Once the cold air is established the snow is bound to follow
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I know we should all be cautious about taking the FI charts seriously, but you have to have a little hit of fun sometimes.....
Just look at the end of the GFS run from last night - it's sheer model poetry:
That would bring seriously cold conditions nationwide.
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The GFS this morning is still doing it's best to provide some snow for many parts of the UK next week, especially Scotland, but has back-pedalled a bit overnight on the overall extent and amount. These are the charts I was trying to animate yesterday but failed completely!....
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
The GFS(p) is similar but places the snow and sleet more in the west. Its looking more likely now that we are in for five days of wintry conditions in a row and we can't grumble about that!
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So, the GFS has turned up the excitement level a couple of notches today. At last we can see something properly wintry for the whole country within less than 10 days. Here's the GFS op showing precipitation type and snow accumulation levels at +162h:
CAUTION: do not take these charts as gospel...yet...but the possibility of most of us seeing a wintry spell of weather is getting more and more likely as we approach the end of the month. It's certainly got me interested now, at any rate - but we need more support across the other models. It's my guess that we are going to see that support by the weekend.
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43 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
Yesterday we had Game Over (Met Office forecast thread) today we had 16 mins to save winter (Mod Thread) (which didn't happen) so winter is over twice in 24 hours.
So what we looking for in Spring people?DAFFODILS!
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43 minutes ago, helentheroberts said:It would be really helpful to compare like with like here. I would like to see the 0z charts from yesterday and today compared.
You might also be interested to see how the models have varied from their forecast of 10 days ago. Here are the ECM, GFS and GEM from 7th January showing the 17th January, together with their current output for tomorrow:
+240 hr from 7th January: +24hr from now:
ECM
GFS
GEM
It is obvious that they all agree about tomorrow's picture..... However, not only were they unable to agree with each other 10 days ago, none of the models were able to predict the correct conditions at +240 (with the exception of the ever-present Azores high) even though we have been experiencing generally settled and non-volatile weather over this period. Surprisingly perhaps, given the flack it generally receives on this forum, the GFS seems to have come closest to getting it right, in my opinion. This just goes to prove that it is pointless getting excited about 10 day charts because the models are not good enough to pin down the detail. They're only any good for looking at trends and disappointment awaits anyone who believes that what is showing today for 10 days time is going to verify......
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1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:
The Peter Gibb video on Ian Fergusons Twitter feed was interesting.
On average, only 2 out of 3 SSW events result in major cold outbreak at mid latitudes!
Well, this one appears to be propagating down but it hasn't reached UK yet!
Exciting times ahead for cold lovers.
Well, I really hope you're right about that but despite the often repeated mantra in the other thread; "It's all going to kick off in 7-10 days" (or similar) which I have been seeing for, well, at least four weeks now, the models are not showing anything other than a brief north-westerly here, or a short lived north-easterly there. Nothing to suggest a two to three week spell of frost and snow which I think is the hallmark of any self-respecting proper winter. The weather patterns, and especially the jet-stream, will have to make some serious u-turns pretty soon if anything prolonged and seriously snowy is going to affect the UK this winter. Can't believe I'm writing this - it sounds like a 'winter's over' post and I have to remind myself that we still have up to two months when really cold conditions can occur, so must keep the chin up!
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There's absolutely no doubt that this winter will go down in folk lore as one in a generation, which many winters will be compared against in decades to come. But only in Scandinavia and Central Europe, not the UK. Snow on the beaches in Greece? I ask you, what more will we have to watch going on elsewhere while we can't even manage a decent frost. It really isn't fair.
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9 hours ago, lorenzo said:
.........
One thing is for sure, watching an SSW in slow motion ........ is gruelling work... we are gonna be damn unlucky NOT to get something signature out of this event that's for sure...
Could not agree more with your comment..... This is a very helpful post for beginners like me! However, with all the anticipation created by the SSW I have been expecting to see some lasting effects on the vortex to evolve in the models, but it just doesn't seem to be happening. These are the main NH views from the main models at +144 this morning:
All fairly similar with evidence of disruption visible.
And then here are the same models (minus the UKMO) at +240:
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Do these images show continued disruption or signs of reorganisation? They don't seem to show the UK benefitting from the effects of the SSW at the 10 day range anyway. This could be any average winter with the Atlantic in charge and no sign of northern blocking to bring lasting wintry conditions to the UK. To my admittedly inexperienced eye, it looks like there will have to be some significant changes of direction from the models before we can have much confidence in an SSW driven winter.
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Trying to look towards the end of the month, CFS (1 month) indicates a possible run of seven days of cold (-4 to -8) uppers from the 20th to the 27th:
850s:
500s:
This might be the most likely period for a lasting cold spell to occur.
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The best op run this morning for cold conditions is the GFS(p) 0z between 192h and 384h:
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Although there are likely to be many changes in the actual outcome, this model has been consistently predicting the coldest evolutions over the last few days.
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For those who may be having panic attacks because the ops are not showing snowpocalypse - yet - it might be worth comparing the charts from early January 2017 (remember we had an SSW last year too...) with today's output.....
January 7th 2017 Today....
500s.
850s.
Jet stream:
Now I won't pretend that they are an exact match, and 'anything can happen in the next half hour' as the saying goes, but to my eye there are many similarities - enough to suggest that we have every reason to keep the faith, because within one month the conditions last year looked like this:
So, if you're thinking that the cold weather is all going to Eastern Europe, tune in again next week for a completely different story......
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Morning all! Heard some bangers going off last night - was there some sort of party I missed?
It's ironic that the 'hottest' thread on NW is the 'hunt for cold'.... and anyone looking for cold conditions in 2019 need look no further than the GFSP at +348:
Granted that this is still 14 days away but you've got to start somewhere, right? I'm certain that we are going to see more and more wintery charts appearing in the short term and that we're all going to see snow before the end of January. Happy, Snowy, New Year to everyone.
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Another dull heavily overcast start to the day after a run of similar days with so much moisture in the air everything stays damp all day. We visited Tenby and Saundersfoot yesterday where the sun did come out for part of the afternoon and then treated us to a lovely sunset. Such a beautiful stretch of the Welsh coastline in a country blessed with almost unbroken beauty along its entire coast. Tenby always looks lovely whatever the weather. It would be nice to see a little more wintery sunshine in the next few days but to be honest I prefer these calm but dull conditions to the violent winds we experienced earlier in December. No sign of proper winter weather in the next couple of weeks really, but the models are far from perfect and they can change their minds overnight sometimes so it's much too soon to rule out seeing any snow in January.....
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In our 'hunt for cold' it's a bit disheartening to see that the entire UK currently enjoys the highest surface level temperatures anywhere in the world above the 50th parallel.....
...by some margin!
We have the highest hill to climb of any country in the northern hemisphere when it comes to experiencing cold weather in the winter so it's no wonder we all get excited when there's any prospect of snow. Let's hope we all get what we wish for in the New Year!
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11 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Im hoping that Dumping, Dolloping,Belting, Tonking, Pasting, Stonker and Hiding are going to become the buzzwords over the next few weeks.
If they're the names of the NW seven dwarves then it's bound to be Snow White everywhere! Here's hoping!
At least we can expect some settled weather over the next few days into the New Year according to current output. That's got to be better than a raging Atlantic with storms, gales and pouring rain.
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30 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
sorry I meant for k to give the squirrel some tasty morsels not to eat it!
I knew that, John. Just my attempt at Christmas cracker humour. Ho Ho!? We all know the squirrel is safe! Happy Christmas to you and thanks for your own grounded and knowledgeable posts as ever.
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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Either your eyesight needs checking or you’re looking the wrong way !
Of course, if you limit your vista to ten days then that’s fine, but it’s not the end of the modelling .......
I definitely should have gone to Specsavers.....
Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Wow! That IS a great view! I would swap a few 30C days every year in a city to have that view every day!