Sky Full

A wet and breezy start this morning has given way to gradually decreasing cloud cover and less wind. Might just end up with a decent weekend again but next week looks cooler and less settled with low pressure forecast to hang around pretty much for the next two weeks as things stand. We’ve gone straight from Spring to Autumn here - but never say that summer is over!

Having read this thread from the beginning it’s clear that the majority of us are now agreed that the global climate is changing to a more chaotic and unpredictable state more rapidly than would occur naturally without the presence of human activity, transport and industry. The speed and real consequences of these changes are more difficult to assess and presently could be described as ‘unknowns’ and so, as humans with a finite life expectancy, we tend to only consider how it might affect us personally. Humans are basically selfish, driven by personal self-preservation, and because many of the predicted life-affecting changes are not likely to occur within the lifetime of any living human, humanity as a whole is not yet really taking concerted global action to preserve a climate which is comfortable for human existence in the centuries ahead. Whilst the UK and a few other countries are, at great cost, making an effort to cut out hydrocarbons from their energy production and transport industries in the relatively near future, other countries with huge populations are not. A large chunk of the worlds population in places such as China, India, Brazil and even the USA continue to burn increasing amounts of coal, cut down forests as fast as they can and grow unsustainable cash crops with no regard whatsoever for the future of the global climate. So the question forming in my selfish, self-preserving human mind is: Why are we in the UK so concerned with achieving net zero and creating an energy crisis for ourselves, pretty much destroying what’s left of our manufacturing and economic prowess, while China et al are doing the exact opposite? Is there any virtue in impoverishing our own country if there is little or no measurable effect on the global climate, because all our efforts to mitigate it are cancelled out by other countries burning an even bigger share of the worlds hydrocarbons than we are saving? If future generations of UK citizens are going to suffer the effects of climate change anyway, due to the activities of others over which we have no control, then shouldn’t we at least leave them with a country which is self sufficient in energy, and still able to compete in the worlds economy? Otherwise are we not doing our future generations a great disservice?

A cool, breezy morning today with plenty of cloud and occasional sunshine - and it’s not raining. Very useable weather but not so good for beach lovers. Might be a touch warmer by the weekend.

The wind has dropped and, after early rain, this morning is looking cloudy and cool with the chance of some sunshine later. Everywhere is looking green and well watered now and even the grass has started to grow again! Not too bad.

Exactly what I was thinking earlier - rather more like an October morning than July. The winds are strong enough here to blow perfectly healthy leaves off the trees in large numbers so it’ll begin to look like autumn too if it continues much longer! I’ve had to go round and stake a lot of normally self-supporting plants in the garden to avoid them being flattened! It’s quite warm though and the sun is now trying to come out again so it’s not all bad…..

I think all risk of early drought conditions in this part of the country has dissolved now, as we have had plenty of moderate rain over the last few days even though there has also been quite a bit of sunshine too. However, the most noticeable weather feature over the last two days has been the wind which has been strong and gusty at times, and this morning seems to have increased again accompanied by some heavy showers earlier. Not what I would like to see in early July and hopefully we will see some calmer weather again soon.

Never mind the current state of the models, the CFS 18z shows a clear route back to high pressure and only 19 days away…..! Not long to wait, then!

High summer has definitely departed Pembrokeshire for the time being - two wet mornings in a row and a mostly cloudy day yesterday have brought temperatures down by 5-6C. These conditions may persist for a week or more now but we’ve still got two full months of summer to come and we really have had a wonderful spell of weather so far. Some rain is essential to prevent drought conditions occurring so I’m happy for the cooler spell to continue for now while looking forward to the next heatwave, probably in July.

After weeks of a persistent easterly / north easterly flow, bringing dry and sunny weather to this area, we now have a complete change of wind direction back to the more usual south-westerly. This has brought back a string of moderate to heavy showers from the Atlantic overnight and this morning which has done wonders to water the gardens and the farmland around here. Even more rain is forecast for tomorrow but the predictions of rain for this location haven’t been very accurate recently (including repeated warnings of thunderstorms which never arrived!) and at the moment I’m finding that the best way to know what the weather is going to do is to look out of the window….

Phew! Hot and sultry today with a thin veil of high cloud at times which didn’t do much to moderate the temperatures. We to Carmarthen today where the thermometer was reading 29C (but this is not a reliable measurement!). A little dribble of rain here in the last 30 minutes has now passed over us towards the north but more is heading our way for this evening. The gardens and the farmland around here will be very grateful for every drop! With a widespread thunderstorm warning out for Sunday, it looks like our long spell of settled summer weather is about to end…..

Yes, some rain is forecast for Wales over the next few days but the models don’t all agree on the amount… These show accumulated rainfall over Wales up to 1:00am Monday morning: GFS UKMO The UKMO is quite a bit more reserved about rainfall totals over the next four days, but I think it’s fair to say that the west will likely be wetter than the east!

The next couple of days will probably see this spell of lovely summery weather peaking for my location with more unbroken sunshine and temperatures probably topping out at around 26C. After that things may turn a little more unsettled for the weekend and next week temperatures are likely to be 6-8C lower, generally. There are some indications that another warm/hot spell could occur towards the end of the month but it’s too far off to rely on, yet.

The steady rain this morning has now eased off and it’s just cloudy and very humid now. Hot and dry conditions now forecast for the next four days with maximum temperatures at around 25C. This is turning out to be a proper flaming June all right. I am wondering if these general conditions will persist into July in which case more heat records may fall this year.

The rain has arrived here - nothing to get excited about but at least the ground is getting wet. No sign of any thunderstorms though. Doesn’t look likely to last very long - maybe a few hours - but maybe some more tomorrow?

Brilliant! So important to put water out for wildlife in these conditions. The nearest river to us has almost dried up and all the usually wet ditches and culverts are completely dry. We do need some rain but there’s nothing substantial in the immediate forecast.

Here we go … MO weather warning for thunderstorms! Met Office issues thunderstorm warning for all of Wales Met Office issues thunderstorm warning for all of Wales - Wales Online WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UK The Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning for thunderstorms covering all of Wales Rain for some!

The weather in Wales is nothing if not extremely variable. Here is a headline from 7 years ago….. It has now been raining for 82 days straight in this Welsh village - Wales Online WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UK The Pembrokeshire village has been wet since October 26, the longest spell of consecutive rain for 92 years ———————————————————————- ……and here is one from last year: Drought officially declared across the whole of Wales NATION.CYMRU A drought has been officially declared across the whole of Wales despite recent rainfall, Natural Resources Wales (NRW) has announced. It is the first nation-wide... ———————————————————————- Now we are approaching the 30th day in a row without rain here in south west Wales and I believe it’s been the same everywhere in Wales in recent weeks. Are there any records to show the longest unbroken dry spell anywhere in Wales?

Wow! What a glorious first day of summer, to follow the mainly sunny and warm second half of May. Not really any sign of much change for the next 7 - 10 days but I hope the reservoirs were completely full before this spell because we’re going to need all the water we can get this summer….

The above CFS chart was posted on the 1st May with little hope of it verifying, but what do you know? Here’s the ECM for today….. Thats not too far off what was predicted 28 days ago by the CFS. Not perfect, but good enough for a long term forecast. Lucky chance? Possibly, even probably, but you cant completely rule out the CFS.

It’s no contest. Wales is definitely the best place in the world when the weather is like this! There’s nowhere else I’d rather be. Will we get another bank holiday weekend like this one, this year? Is Wales the new Costa deal Sol? Have I had too much sun? Probably.

That sounds lovely! Surely you can’t drink all that on your own? You can always send me a bottle or two if you make too much….

Today makes the 15th day in a row with no rain in this area as far as I know. There is no rain in the immediate forecast either. We might get some rain between the 3rd and 5th June according to the GFS but too early to say for sure. This is very nice weather, but I’m a little concerned that we might have problems this Summer if rainfall levels don’t return to normal by the end of June.

The weather here has continued sunny, settled and warm all week with only a few cloudy interludes to worry about. A really lovely second half of May and something of a pleasant surprise given how the first half of the month unfolded. I must say that the star of the countryside at the moment is the hawthorn blossom which is as prolific and heavy on the trees as ever I can remember. They’ll be a bumper crop of berries for the birds come the Autumn.

Cool and cloudy start here today but the cloud has mostly evaporated into a thin high cirrostratus layer which is allowing watery sunshine. The temperature has probably plateaued at 16C. Not a bad day at all and warm enough to be wearing shorts outside ( no - you really don’t want to see an image…. ). More dry and sunny weather in the immediate future according to the models - perhaps lasting through the bank holiday weekend for a change!

Beautiful day today - probably the best day of the Spring so far with warm sunshine and very light breeze. No rain for more than a week now - what’s going on? Not complaining - just saying.