Sky Full

One of the many things I love about Pembrokeshire is how rapidly the weather can change. This morning it’s completely different - hardly any breeze, not enough to move even the smallest leaves. There are some distant clouds visible on the south-eastern horizon but otherwise it’s dry and clear as the sun is about to rise. Looks like it could be a very nice autumn morning but it is noticeably cooler than recently, which is a good thing because many of the plants appear to have been fooled into thinking it might be Spring again! At least the gales haven’t left any damage behind but I’m guessing this won’t be the last very windy day we get before Christmas….!

That sounds nasty - I hope you can quickly get it repaired! Strongest gusts recorded today for Welsh locations so far courtesy of NW: Aberdaron 72 mph Capel Curig 71 mph Valley 68 mph Pembrey Sands 64 mph Aberporth / Mumbles Head 60 mph These are significant gusts with the ability to cause damage. We’ve also had heavy rain here but now seems to be easing up a little. It also feels colder and I’ve got the log burner going for the first time this autumn.

As forecast, it’s very windy here! As I write this the skies have darkened rapidly and it’s just started raining. Hopefully the winds will ease this afternoon and the worst of the rain will stay out in the Irish Sea…..

Having looked around at forecast wind speeds tomorrow, it seems that my location is at risk of the highest gusts at up to 65mph. Most other locations in west Wales including coastal areas are only forecast to get 55mph gusts as far as I can see….. Must be the effect of the Preseli hills, or simply elevation, I’m not too sure, but there goes the last of the autumn leaves….

Last nights low pressure was been named by MeteoFrance and the worst weather affected the north of France, but we had a very wet and windy night here too. More heavy showers today and another windy day on Wednesday to come. Storm Claudio gales in the Channel before a midweek Low arrives for the UK WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Storm (Tempete) Claudio has been named by MeteoFrance and will bring a windy night through the English Channel. Another low mid-week will bring more rain and the risk...

The Met Office has issued a yellow warning of high winds for parts of Wales on Wednesday. Mainly western coastal areas with gusts between 55 and 65mph forecast, but all areas will be windy on Wednesday. Can’t seem to get a link embedded but just go to the MetO website for details…. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk

So windy again here this morning - the clouds are racing across the sky and some of these are towering cumulus which reflect the sun from their tops. No doubt we’ll get some showers later by the lol of it. No sign of starlings this morning - they must have found better feeding somewhere else today.

The 500hpa charts for the start of November bear comparison this morning: 1st November UKMO GEM 2nd November GFS. ECM Still five or six days away - plenty of time for evolution - but it looks like an unsettled, wet and windy start to the month, for the west and north at least.

Showery and mild again today. The large flocks of migratory starlings seen in this area last year are returning now - I’m not sure if this is earlier than usual or not since I haven’t previously noted the date….. They seem to be arriving in good numbers though, which is encouraging for their survival.

I don’t know about the possible autumn ‘heatwave’ but this little GFS 0z progression for the week beginning 2nd November looks unsettled, wet, windy and even cold at times, to me… Might be a prelude to something a little less Summery, perhaps?

‘Moody’ skies alright! I love interesting cloud forms. Here we’ve had heavy rain for about an hour, now easing. Radar says the skies will clear to sun in about 40 minutes, so we might have a useful day.

A few dry periods between frequent heavy showers today - sometimes intense rainfall for several minutes - but no more thunder or lightning here - yet. Some are forecasting heavy thundery showers for tomorrow so we will see what happens, but remaining pretty mild for late October with absolutely no sign of anything resembling frost yet.

Potentially stormy conditions forming in the Atlantic from early November, according to the GFS this morning. Might well affect Wales with high winds at some point. Too early be accurate at this time but worth keeping an eye on - could change completely, or could intensify…….

Heavy rain and gusty winds here overnight and 100% overcast this morning although dry at the moment. Leaves now falling like confetti everywhere and some trees are already almost bare. Sad to see so many ash trees around here which probably will not put on any leaf next spring due to die-back. However, the ash in the hedgerows seems largely unaffected so far, so maybe the species will survive long term. More rain forecast for today, tomorrow and most of next week but still no news of the hose-pipe ban lifting…..

Superb weather here at the moment - sunny with light clouds, very little wind, 20degC. Could easily be talking about June or even July but it’s nearly November, for goodness sake! I can’t help wondering how the winter is going to turn out but an extremely benign season would not be unwelcome given the cost of electricity and heating oil…..

I draw the line when I need to put on gloves and a scarf - indoors!

Extraordinary light show here earlier this evening as the line of intense showers passed through - very active cloud to cloud sheet lightning overhead accompanied by continuous rolling thunder and torrential rain for about ten minutes. Very unusual for this time of year but spectacular to watch especially as it was after dark and the whole sky was flashing, lighting up the horizon. Weird weather.

First chance I’ve had to post this but we experienced the most extraordinary light show here earlier this evening - around 8:30pm. As the band of intense showers passed over, the cloud to cloud sheet lightning directly overhead became almost constant for a while, accompanied by continuous rolling thunder and torrential rain for about ten minutes. I can’t remember ever seeing this kind of electrical activity at this time of year except once in southern Spain while on holiday years ago. The radar showed the storms moving quickly north into the Irish Sea and I would have loved to be on the north coast around Fishguard where I imagine the sight would have been spectacular over the sea. I am struggling to understand what is causing these conditions to occur (second night in a row) at this time of year when we went through the heat of the summer and never saw one storm here…..but I am enjoying it!

Although the sky overhead is currently clear there is now frequent but distant lightning visible to the south and west of me, although no thunder yet. These showers look to be moving north towards me but whether they will sustain their activity by then is questionable. I might have to stay awake until after midnight to find out!

Although the sky overhead is clear, I can see distant lightning on the southern horizon now which must be linked to the string of heavy showers moving north towards Pembrokeshire. I think they will pass through after midnight and perhaps I might hear some thunder this time!

Well the autumn so far has been relatively quiet and there isn’t much sign of winter yet. I’m not unhappy that we haven’t had any storms which merit a name, yet, and at the moment it looks benign for the next couple of weeks too. We’ve had some windy weather, and some very wet days, but the temperatures are holding up well. From a selfish perspective I welcome these conditions because I’m not having to use the heating oil, and I can continue to do useful work outside. I can remember several November 5ths in the 1950s and 1960s when the weather was already very cold and frost was not unusual, so the lack of frost in early November these days appears to confirm a change in the climate from my perspective. But it doesn’t mean that we will not see prolonged cold weather later in the winter because conditions can change dramatically in only a few days with very little prior warning even by the most capable computer models. So keep watching the models and don’t worry about the lack of cold at this stage of the season,

Superb clear starlit night here tonight with Jupiter very visible to the south-east. The Milky Way is also clearly visible with no clouds to obscure the view. A windy day today, with regular strong gusts but also mainly sunny and no rain. Tomorrow we might be dry again with less wind. Fingers crossed, then.

Saw a distant flash of lightning on the horizon last evening on the way home, but couldn’t hear the thunder. Not surprising there was thunder about given the intensity of some of the showers yesterday but today has started sunny and calm, with hardly any breeze at all. Later we are to expect rain moving in from the south and winds to strengthen again. Yes, it’s Autumn proper now!

A calm, misty and very Autumnal start here today. Everything is still soaking wet from the rain which fell most of yesterday. The local stream is filling up and flowing strongly now, but I have heard that the Pembrokeshire reservoir at Llys-y-Fran is still half empty. I haven’t been up there to take a look but find this odd given how much rain we have had recently. Might take the rest of the winter to refill it I suppose, but Welsh Water have some explaining to do given that we had a three hour loss of water the other day due to a burst main. Hardly seems to be a month going by when they don’t have a pipe burst somewhere around here….

Quite an early newspaper reference to what is now called ‘the Greenhouse Effect ‘ and which was first developed as a theory by Eunice Foote and John Tyndall in the 1850s - very prophetic. Meet the woman who first identified the greenhouse effect WWW.CLIMATECHANGENEWS.COM Eunice Foote demonstrated the heat-trapping properties of carbon dioxide at a scientific conference in 1856, newly digitised records show