Blessed Weather

Not that it needed confirming, but it's looking a damp, dreary day across the Region. That light blue out west suggests it might stay drizzly after the 'proper' rain moves through. Despite being a snow lover, imo if we can't get some proper cold here I'd prefer the euro slug high to edge a bit further north and keep us sunny and mild. Maybe a worry this early tho, but nature responding to the current mild weather - I had a pair of wrens courting in the garden yesterday - bootiful little things.

Oh no! What a bummer.

It's interesting that - contrary to the Met Off amber warning - a stretch of South Coast (South Hampshire, West Sussex and East Sussex) missed the strongest winds, whilst inland the gusts were stronger. A great example of this in Hampshire where the max gust on the coast was 49 mph whilst Odiham in North Hampshire recorded 70 mph. If Nick is looking through the thread he may have a view about what caused this. Maybe a squall line passing across the Region was less organised in southern locations?

Storm Isha 21st - 22nd Jan 2024 For the record, here's the Region's max wind gusts for Sun 21st and Mon 22nd (up to 07.00). Pretty much as per the model forecasts for gusts up to 100 kmh (62 mph) anywhere across the Region. So far it appears the strongest gust in our locale (taken from the official automated station network) was recorded at Odiham, North Hampshire, yesterday evening with 112 kmh (70 mph). Sun 21st Mon 22nd Source: Starling Roost Weather

Here's the Region's max wind gusts for yesterday and today (up to 07.00). Pretty much as per the model forecasts for gusts up to 100 kmh (62 mph) anywhere across the Region. So far it appears the strongest gust in our locale (taken from the official automated station network) was recorded at Odiham, North Hampshire, yesterday evening with 112 kmh (70 mph). Sun 21st Jan Mon 22nd Jan Source: Starling Roost Weather

Interesting though the topic of aircraft difficulties landing during a storm is, the sheer number of such posts in here was rather derailing this thread. I've just moved a whole batch of posts over to the Aviation thread and would be grateful if those of you wishing to track flights, etc, could head over there to continue. Many thanks.

A look at some of the hi-res model forecasts from this morning's runs. In summary, almost anywhere in the Region could see a gust of 100+ kmh (62+ mph) with the South Coast and SE corner most at risk. The worst of the winds arriving a smidge earlier than forecasts of a day or two back, so approx anytime from 10.00 pm tonight through to 02.00 Monday. Here's a selection of forecasts for midnight with ICON downplaying the strongest winds for most of us, whilst GFS (chart is for 10pm tonight) maybe OTT(?) with widespread gusts of up to 110 kmh (68 mph). Note that UKV is mph, the others kmh: Arpege ICON GFS UKV Source: Meteociel https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ and Netweather Extra https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=ukv;sess= Here's hoping everyone's tiles, trees, fences, etc., escape any damage.

So Storm Isha named by the Met Office and for our Region a Yellow Warning issued for wind on Sunday, with this raised to an Amber Warning for the SE corner on Monday. Storm named: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/storm-isha-has-been-named Warnings issued: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-01-22 Looking at the Arpege model wind gusts, on Sunday morning the strong winds from the storm are in the SW approaches, reaching our Region by Sunday evening and peaking in the early hours of Monday (atm between 01.00 to 03.00 but this likely to change nearer the time) with gusts of 100 kmh (62 mph) widely across the Region. Batten the hatches down. Arpege sequence from 10.00 Sunday to 09.00 Monday: Source: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=57&mode=11&map=330

Mild it's not atm. Here's yesterday's max temps across the Region with most barely getting above freezing and frost persisting all day in the shade: Max temps 18th: And last nights minimums (18th into 19th): Source: Starling Roost Weather's website (using the automated stations network) Also tweet from Nick:

December 2023 Once the late November cold snap finally cleared at the end of the first week - swept away by Storms Elin and Fergus on the 9th and 10th - December was overall a mild and dull month for the Region with rainfall ending around average. Here's the rainfall, sunshine and temperature anomalies versus the 1991-2020 average: Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps Arguably the most noteworthy weather was the very mild period over Christmas with the UK recording its highest daily minimum temperature on record on Christmas Day with 12.4°C at East Malling, Kent, (also reached at Exeter Airport). Also noteworthy was Storm Gerrit between 27th and 29th which produced very turbulent weather with strong winds and heavy rain. A gust of 74 mph was recorded at the Needles, Isle of Wight. Here's the wind gust chart from Starling Roost Weather for the 28th: Source: http://starlingsroost.ddns.net/weather/index.php

Go to your profile and click on "See my activity". See screen grab.

I use the full range of models we have available to check 'big picture' forecasts in the run up to my trips, so that includes the mains models such as GFS and ECM, but for more local forecasts also ICON (German model) and Arpege (French model) as they have as good a reputation as any for Alpine forecasts and show most of the Alps except far east of Austria. Netweather uses GFS to produce its Alps charts, so that's a useful tool as it has detail such as freezing level, precipitation, etc. The Alpine country met offices also worth a look. Here's the Meteo France 15 day forecast for Morzine and for Avoriaz. I use the French newspaper Le Dauphine (online mountain edition) for resort snow depths. Here's the link and you need to look at the Haute-Savoie for Morzine and Avoriaz depths. The upper slopes looking good for both at 125 cms. I can fully understand your disappoint that forecasts are currently suggesting a milder week for the Alps with the possibility of some precipitation on Mon/Tues but unfortunately freezing level an issue, followed by a sunny remainder of the week. Hopefully there's enough time for forecasts to adjust for the better. And looking on the positive side, with current depths there will be plenty of good skiing on upper slopes and skiing in sunshine always a pleasure. I hope you both enjoy your trips. I didn't get around to posting these, but the sun was out for my last couple of days last week and I captured these views of 'up-top' and looking down the valley:

Hi Rob. I've moved your post over here where it's more appropriate for discussion. The question "what do they [BBC] base their forecasts on?" is answered in the article below. Basically, the BBC use MeteoGroup to provide their forecasts, and the article - written by MeteoGroup - reveals they use a blend of models and tweeks by their own meteorologists: The making of : a weather forecast | by MeteoGroup | Medium MEDIUM.COM It might still be sunny outside, but the light is already changing; a rain shower is imminent. A rectangular, fenced-off area containing…

An interesting sPV blog written by Dr. Amy Butler and published yesterday, 8th January, on the NOAA/Climate website. Concluding remarks: "What’s the atmosphere cooking up next? Forecasts suggest that the polar vortex will continue to stay weak for the next 10-14 days, with some forecast systems even showing another chance at a major stratospheric warming event. Meanwhile the vortex has changed from being displaced towards Europe to becoming more elongated across North America and Scandinavia, with the possibility of the polar vortex splitting into two lobes in the lowermost stratosphere- an indication of how unstable the vortex has become." Full blog: Cooking up a stratospheric polar vortex disruption | NOAA Climate.gov WWW.CLIMATE.GOV Recent atmospheric patterns don't match those that typically precede a sudden stratospheric warming event. But forecasts do suggest the polar vortex might get stretched out of shape in coming weeks.

Hope you're having a great week Frazzled. You hit the nail on the head with conditions in France (your comment in bold). Here in Val Cenis the wonderful snow conditions are difficult to enjoy when most of the time the 'clag' has settled over the mountain and you end up skiing blind through the murk. The forecast here is for much of the same up to mid-week with Weds seeing some very cold air giving -6C in the village and -16C at the top. Then the sun comes out later this week, so hopefully some fantastic conditions to enjoy before heading home. Some pics from today showing the view from the telecabin up the mountain into the murk, and the view towards the top of the telecabin and top restaurant during a brief clearer spell.

Just posted on X

Netweather V8 radar showing a sleety mix at 06.30. Looking at the Arome forecast for 2m temps, most of the Region is unfortunately the wrong side of zero and stays that way despite the -10C 850hPa isotherm reaching us by 16.00 this afternoon. Situation at 16.00 this afternoon: 850 temps 2m temps

Not what we want. More unwelcome rain moving slowly north and likely to give at least an inch (25mm) for many. 18.55

Driving to Val Cenis (1,450m - 2,800m) in the south of the Savoie Region of France tomorrow for a week's skiing and the trip looks well timed for the return of colder weather in that part of the Alps. Some decent snowfall forecast for the coming days too, so hopefully pistes will be nicely refreshed after the Christmas/New Year hammering. The downside will be the usual problem of poor visibility during any periods of snow, but better that than skiing with a lack of snow and icy conditions. For the curious, I've marked the location of Val Cenis on the map. It's right on the border with Italy and from the top station the viewing platform provides spectacular views. Here's a comparison of the freezing level at midday today Thur 4th versus midday next Tues 9th: Source: https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/alps Snowfall accumulation over the same period: Source: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=3&mode=45&map=300 Hopefully I'll get some nice pics to post during the week.

2023 in the East - Summary The highlights from 2023 courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest, X danholley_ EAST: 2023 — the 3rd warmest year on record (behind 2014 and 2022), featuring: 2nd sunniest Jan 7th sunniest Feb 3rd driest Feb 5th wettest March 2nd hottest June 7th sunniest June THE hottest Sept Joint 8th warmest Oct 4th warmest Dec

Storm Henk 2nd Jan 2024 The first named storm of 2024 produced some heavy rain and strong winds across the Region. The GFS-WRF forecast on Monday 1st nicely captures the track and intensity: Some stats on gusts experienced in East Anglia, courtesy of Dan Holley, X @danholley_ 68mph Alton Water [unofficial] 67mph Andrewsfield (highest since Feb '22) 67mph Southwold [unofficial] 66mph Wattisham (highest since Feb '22) 63mph Luton 60mph Tibenham 59mph Southend 58mph Shoeburyness And across the Region here are the gusts (mph) and rainfall (mm) totals courtesy of Roost Weather interactive map: Source: http://starlingsroost.ddns.net/weather/ukobs/rain_daily_summary_map.php?date=2024-01-02&unit=

The continual bickering, squabbling and oneupmanship in this thread is frankly becoming intolerable and needs to stop. I've had to remove many totally unnecessary posts this morning and deal with the reports submitted by other members equally fed up. Can people please be more considerate to their fellow members who want to log-in and head to the Model thread to catch up on the latest output and to read serious discussions about our weather prospects. Thank you.

November 2023 The month started off wet and stormy weather with Storm Ciaran on the 2nd Nov particularly noteable for producing the lowest mean sea level pressure since February 1989 across a large swathe of southern and eastern England and across the English Channel. The storm resulted in 30 to 50mm of rain falling across southern England. Track and rainfall details of the storm were posted here. This was quickly followed by Storm Domingos on the 4th November and whilst the strongest winds were further south into France, the southern counties of the Region saw further heavy rain to add to flooding problems. Further details in this post. The second half of the month saw drier, sunnier, colder and frosty weather with -0.8°C recorded at East Malling, Kent on the 12th and from the 24th a northerly airflow gave some hard frosts with -4.8°C recorded at Hurn, Dorset on the 28th and on the 30th Santon Downham overnight temp of -6.6C made it the coldest place in the UK (using the automatic weather stations data). This was the coldest November night at this site since 2016. There was even a dusting of snow for parts of Norfolk and Suffolk on the 29th. In summary, overall the month ended wetter than the 1991-2020 average for southern and eastern counties, sunnier for most of the Region and with the mean temperature around average. Here's the Met Office charts for rainfall, sunshine and mean temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 average: Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps

May I wish everyone in our friendly Regional a very happy and healthy New Year.

Hi Robert. Sorry, it's been a busy time and tbh I ended up forgetting. I'm in Germany atm but will sort it next week when I get back.