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Blessed Weather

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Interests
    Weather extremes, mountains and skiing, foreign travel, British pubs. As a 10 year old I experienced the 1962/63 winter which was the start of my life-long interest in all things weather related. The family had just moved into a new-build house on the top of a hill in Wales when the blizzard struck overnight. I woke up with my bedroom window sill covered in snow. In the bathroom the sill was covered and the bath was full of several inches of snow. The water in the toilet was frozen. Oh the joy of badly fitting, draughty wooden windows... and only a coal fire in the living room to warm the entire house!
    My first skiing trip to the Alps was in 1966. It was a school trip to Solden in Austria and we travelled by train across Europe. It was my first trip abroad and I hardly slept all way with the excitement. It led to a life-long passion for all things skiing and mountain and nowadays I try and have a few ski holidays a year if I can, spreading my visits across the Alps and try to visit less well known resorts as well as the usual suspects.
    My other passion is rugby and coming from Dinas Powys in South Wales I'm naturally enough a Wales fan. I now live in Suffolk (job move) but regularly travel back in Wales where my parents still live.
    My avatar is inspired by Brian Blessed - absolutely awesome in panto!!
  • Weather Preferences
    An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers!

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  1. Hi Clair. My Friday look at Andorra for next week, as promised. The headlines are a cold start to your week as the bitter air moving in from the north east brushes with Andorra. This gets pushed away north as the Low Pressure just off Spain sees the wind flow turn to a southerly direction and as a band of precipitation moves north. This gives snow during Wednesday before turning to rain Thursday below approx 2,000m. Friday & Saturday looking cooler with freezing level down to around 1,500m and mainly dry. Some charts. First the GFS and ECM 500hPa charts for Tues 27th in agreement with the cold air brushing Andorra. The 500hPa charts again in agreement show the cold air retreating north as the Low exerts its influence. Zooming in using GFS, the 850hPa, freezing level and precipitation charts for Tues 27th show it very cold with a few snow showers around. By Weds the band of precipitation has moved in falling as snow by day, maybe turning to rain during the evening: By Thurs the 850hPa, freezing level and precipitation charts show it milder with the 850 air at +4C and freezing level around 2,000m. Whatever the weather I hope you have a great holiday. Try and post some pics!
  2. Nice update this morning from John Hammond: By Monday, very cold (‘polar continental’) air will have arrived across all areas of the UK – a marked step up in chill from the weekend. Temperatures in many places will be barely above freezing, the cold accentuated by the easterly wind. Weather-wise, initially, western areas will be driest and brightest. But already there will be snow flurries further east. And through the day, snow showers here will become heavy and more prolonged. Accumulating snowfall is likely to develop across central and eastern parts of the UK, especially as we head into the night. By Tuesday. I’m expecting disruptive amounts of snowfall to have fallen in some places. There is likely to be marked variation in amounts of snowfall, but parts of southeast England, East Anglia, northeast England and eastern Scotland are in line for some of the larger accumulations. Conditions will deteriorate further through the midweek period, with the prospect of disruptive snowfall to be carried more widely westwards across some parts of the UK. Nobody is immune to snowfall by this time. I expect school closures, as well as major impacts on travel and other infrastructure. https://weathertrending.com/2018/02/23/on-the-horizon-historic-cold-spell/
  3. Hi svalji. The really bitter air that's moving in from the east doesn't arrive in Chamonix until Monday. You can see this from the snowforecast chart below - look at how the temps plummet. But the good news is that there's already reasonably cold air over the Alps, snow conditions are very good, and you will see moderate snowfall during your weekend (particularly on the mountain, although it might be a bit sleety at times in the town). Have a great weekend! Mid-mountain 5-day forecast on 22nd http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Chamonix/6day/mid Hi Clair. I was just about to post a reply last night and accidentally hit my keyboard and everything disappeared! So forgive me using the GFS 12z charts from last night as I'm off to work in a mo (although there doesn't appear to be any change to GFS forecasts for early next week). I use the 500hPa charts to understand the big picture - what's the synoptic pattern (highs/lows) and how do the forecasts suggest these will change. So looking at next week's GFS chart for Tues 27th we can see the bitterly cold air mass from the east gets tantalisingly close to Andorra. Also note the Low Pressure moving off the Atlantic towards Spain. Then I use the 850hPa charts and precipitation charts for more detail. The 850 isotherms give the temp at approx 1,500m, which is around the height of a lot of mountain ski resorts. So the -5C isotherm will mean approx -5C at 1,500m. So using the GFS higher res output for the 27th and 29th we can see the bitterly cold air to the NE of the Pyrenees, but by the 29th that has moved away north as the Low off Spain moves in with winds from a southerly point raising the 850 temps and precipitation also approaching. 850 temps 27th 29th Precipitation approaching 27th Whilst I do look for features (e.g. isobar kinks) when looking at the other charts, for real detail I switch to other (better) high res models as they come into range, e.g. Arpege goes out to 114 hours. You can find them listed to the left when viewing Meteociel charts. Click on the country of choice (in your case France or Spain will do). I'll have another look on Friday as promised.
  4. Here's how far out the various High Res models go, so Icon UK just picking up Sunday. All available on Meteociel from the list on the left and the UK flag! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?map=510 Icon 120 hrs Arpege 114 hrs NMM 72 hrs Hirlam 48 hrs Arome 42 hrs Hi Donna. Yes, this week is getting colder with maybe some flurries by Sunday. But our main interest is next week with the VERY cold air arriving Monday and (hopefully!) some beefy snow showers kicking in later Monday into Tuesday.
  5. Hi Clair. As @J10 has posted above, widespread cold across Europe, but at the mo Andorra escaping the worst. Whilst I don't think it will, there's always the possibility of that changing at this range so that Andorra sees the much colder air. So if it's possible for you to wait, could I do a few charts on Friday? By then the outlook for your week will be looking a little clearer. Btw, what resort are you going to?
  6. Oh my! Great tweet from BBC forecaster Chris Fawkes. Embedded troughs.... heavy snow for Eastern England....!! Bring it on!
  7. Hi. It's very difficult to say at 7+ days away, particularly with the SSW adding to model uncertainty. I think there is definitely a risk that it could be cold and snowy over the few days you are in Andorra. This evening the ECM model is tracking the very cold air further south than previously modelled. It's only one run but highlights that forecasts are still changing at the 7 to 10 day range. If ECM is correct, it could turn very cold in Andorra. Some charts from this evening. First the 500hPa charts showing the cold air over Europe and close to Andorra on the 27th Feb. GFS ECM Next the 2m temperature and precipitation charts for Spain/Andorra for 13.00 on the 27th show it chilly and snowing at altitude (cool and raining at lower altitude). So a difficult call for you. If you are able to stall a decision I'd recommend waiting until later this coming week to make it. (Let me know if you'd like the updated charts posted then). You could also use this snow forecasting website to check likely weather for a specific resort in Andorra, but it only goes out 5 days. http://www.snow-forecast.com/ Good luck!
  8. Off on my annual March pilgrimage to Val Cenis in the French Alps on the 10th. We normally call it our "summer holiday" as the last several years have provided warm sunshine and lazy lunches on restaurant terraces. But I think this year's trip might be rather colder! I just wish I could go skiing as often as you do - you lucky bloke!! You'll be needing the hip flask full of schnapps next weekend!
  9. It's starting to shape up as an excellent season for the Alps Julian. And I believe the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event currently taking place will likely result in ongoing cold for Europe, so maintaining the generally excellent conditions right to the end of the season. Looking like a good year to book a late trip! A few charts. Here's the GFS 'Feb-up-to-17th + next 7 days' 2m temperature forecast for Europe. And alongside is the 7 day temp trend. And this morning's (17th Feb) GFS and ECM Northern Hemisphere charts for around 26th/27th Feb showing the potential synoptic pattern with cold air flooding into Europe: Edit: Just seen the new post from @carinthian about the "extreme cold" warning. Any views on the outlook to the end of the season Paul?
  10. Lovely photos Angela, thanks for posting them. I'm really pleased that you had such a lovely holiday. Me thinks you'll be back in beautiful Austria sooner rather than later
  11. Encouraging Weather Co Europe tweet this afternoon (16Feb). Europe cold, unsettled with snow to start March. I'm fed up with tweet charts disappearing, so here's the screen grab as JPG. Click to enlarge.
  12. Yes, I agree Blue, it is a tad confusing. Dr Amy Butler uses 65N and it was her that published a paper in 2015 "Defining Sudden Stratospheric Warmings" in which she stated: It has been over 35 years since the WMO offered a definition of SSWs, during which time many more SSWs have been observed. We suggest the time is ripe for improvements and updates. In her paper and conclusions she suggested: ......using 65°N instead of 60°N, may decrease sensitivity to changes in the vortex edge..... then about 20% more events will be detected compared to using 60°N only. Full paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00173.1 But back to the current event and I see that http://weatheriscool.com/ is reporting (with their exclamation marks): The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
  13. The chart below from Hannah E. Attard shows Zonal Wind dipping below -30 m/s (the black analysis line) around the 14th Feb and the GEFS forecast (red forecast line) suggests the maximum negative Zonal Wind flow will have been reached sometime today (15th) around -34 to -35 m/s. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php
  14. Need Help On The Site/forum?

    Many thanks both. Well I've just removed all cookies associated with Twitter and Netweather, plus cleared my cache, and still only seeing the text in tweets. I guess we're running out of options? It's the intermittent nature of the problem that's weird. Why do the pics/charts appear one minute and gone the next??
  15. Need Help On The Site/forum?

    TWITTER PROBLEM The intermittent problem with posted tweets not displaying pics & tweets (just text) is still occurring. This morning I tried using MS Edge instead of my usual Firefox browser, but this made no difference. I have tried all the helpful suggestions made by @Summer Sun with the exception of clearing cookies (which I'm reluctant to do). The fact that this problem is occurring with another member @Bring Back1962-63 who uses two other browsers (Chrome and Internet Explorer) suggests to me that this either a Twitter or Netweather problem. Any comments please Support Team? Many thanks.
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