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Blessed Weather

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Interests
    Weather extremes, mountains and skiing, foreign travel, British pubs. As a 10 year old I experienced the 1962/63 winter which was the start of my life-long interest in all things weather related. The family had just moved into a new-build house on the top of a hill in Wales when the blizzard struck overnight. I woke up with my bedroom window sill covered in snow. In the bathroom the sill was covered and the bath was full of several inches of snow. The water in the toilet was frozen. Oh the joy of badly fitting, draughty wooden windows... and only a coal fire in the living room to warm the entire house!
    My first skiing trip to the Alps was in 1966. It was a school trip to Solden in Austria and we travelled by train across Europe. It was my first trip abroad and I hardly slept all way with the excitement. It led to a life-long passion for all things skiing and mountain and nowadays I try and have a few ski holidays a year if I can, spreading my visits across the Alps and try to visit less well known resorts as well as the usual suspects.
    My other passion is rugby and coming from Dinas Powys in South Wales I'm naturally enough a Wales fan. I now live in Suffolk (job move) but regularly travel back in Wales where my parents still live.
    My avatar is inspired by Brian Blessed - absolutely awesome in panto!!
  • Weather Preferences
    An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers!

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  1. According to this evening's Arpege it's meant to head SE into France with rain not getting further east than the IoW. However it's likely to introduce some cloud and lift temps a little after midnight. At 20.30 my thermometer is showing -1.5C in my back garden and my lawn is turning ever more white.
  2. Obviously a long way to go, but if tonight's (24 Nov) ECM 12z NH 500hPa profile for 4th Dec verifies anything like the forecast, from an old study that undertook research into the Jan/Feb 1979 SSW, the combination of anomalous high pressure in both Atlantic and Pacific is not without interest?? Extract from the paper "How Well do we Understand the Dynamics of Stratospheric Warmings" by Michael E. McIntyre (page 56): In the northern hemisphere winter the parts of the troposphere over the north Atlantic and Pacific act as separate resonant cavities, which can be excited independently of each other and of the stratosphere...... The stratosphere still responds as to a given forcing from below, and the stratospheric response (for a given state, of the stratosphere) will tend to be strongest in wave 1 when the Atlantic and Pacific anomalies happen to have opposite signs, and strongest in wave 2 when they happen to have the same sign..... If this version is a good approximation to the truth then there should be some tendency for the "strong wave 1" and "strong wave 2" conditions in the stratosphere to be mutually exclusive, especially at times when the magnitudes of the Atlantic and Pacific anomalies are at their largest..... Such behaviour is indeed observed, and has often been remarked upon. Tonight's ECM output: 500 hPa Anomaly https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj1965/60/1/60_1_37/_pdf
  3. Snow on the Scottish Mountains 2016/17

    It's a lovely day in Glencoe!
  4. UK Mountain snowfall 2016-2017 season

    A dusting of snow up on Fleet Moss, North Yorkshire today (24th Nov):
  5. A tweet about this coming weekend's weather.... but I'm also encouraged that the extended outlook from GFS and ECM continues to show promise for the Alps with regular incursions of cold air and precipitation. Say it quietly, but it's starting to look promising that conditions might be rather good as increasing numbers of resorts open. NCEP European Temp Outlook to 10th Dec: I'm off to the Yukon Territories in Northern Canada tomorrow for a two week holiday staying with my daughter who's emigrated over there. I'll be doing some skiing with her at Mt. Sima whilst there and will try and post some pics. The weather over there today is light snow, a temp of -23C and a windchill of -30C.
  6. Regarding my post above - when I originally posted that tweet it contained 3 diagrams and appeared as such. I don't know what's happened now, but if you wish to see the diagrams click on the #energy pic.twitter.com/K56HfXHsR9 link above.
  7. Snow on the Scottish Mountains 2016/17

    I have to agree with the tweet..... that is one fabulous view!!
  8. Snow on the Scottish Mountains 2016/17

    I think this is the first time I've seen this view - the main building and chairlifts at the bottom of the Glenshee ski area. Looks good! Edit: I've just seen the official temps on the Scottish mountains today: Latest temperature observations on the summits: Cairngorm -5.6C; Cairnwell -4.0C; Bealach na Ba -2.7C.
  9. Snow on the Scottish Mountains 2016/17

    Lovely snowy pics this morning (Thur 23 Nov) from Loch Morlich looking towards the Cairngorm and up on the mountain from the balcony of the Scottish Ski Club Hut:
  10. Sorry to hear about your cold Daniel - hope it clears soon. What we need is some extremely cold weather to kill all these damn bugs off!!
  11. Great day here! Almost unbroken sunshine and temp up to 15.3C. OK, it's a tad breezy - had a gust of 39mph at 11.02 - but I don't mind that, it made this morning's walk more interesting with trees swaying and leaves flying about. Invigorating!! 11.30
  12. Certainly some interesting strat forecasts being produced by both ECM and GFS at the moment. Hopefully they will edge nearer the reliable over the coming days. I believe the tweet below from Dr. Cohen is based on this morning's GFS 06z run:
  13. What a bore fest the last 48 hours have been! Grey skies and the temp not moving by day or night, stuck between 11.3C and 11.9C. So personally I'm looking forward to a bit of variety over the coming days. Starting tomorrow with strong winds arriving, and hopefully a surprise flake or two of snow over the weekend. (The weekend will be getting into the range of the high res models soon, starting with the Arpege 12z this evening). Here's the wind gusts around the Region for the early hours of Thurs:
  14. Dr. Judah Cohen’s latest weekly blog (20th Nov) has just been published and he discusses the forecast increased WAFz/poleward heat transport impact on the stratospheric PV: Troposphere-stratosphere coupling has been relatively quiet, allowing for the stratospheric polar vortex to strengthen. However predicted uptick in energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere is predicted to dislodge the PV centre from the Pole towards Eurasia. The displacement of the PV centre towards Eurasia opens up the stratospheric PV to subsequent disruptions and could eventually result in a more significant disruption of the stratospheric PV in the coming weeks or later. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
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