Paul

This may be a good option for those looking for a more curated version of the community:

If you'd like to curate the content you see on the community, one really good way to do it is to follow other members. This allows you to be notified (if you'd like) when they make a new post, but it also allows you to have a curated feed of just the members you follow within the activity stream. Many of you are probably asking what on earth an activity stream is right now, because it's not especially widely used - please keep reading to find out more.. Firstly, how to follow members. It's a pretty simple task - just go onto the profile of the member you'd like to follow and click the follow button: Once you have a few members you're following, you can view all of their recent posts from one place on the activity stream. One of the custom options available on there is 'members I follow' Once there, you'll see a screen like this (desktop and mobile views shown): It's customisable with the filters at the top, so you can limit the time span, only show content you haven't read, and so on - you can then save those options as a custom stream to use whenever you like. There are numerous other pre-built activity streams for you to try and edit as well - it can be a great way of discovering and following the content that interests you. Hopefully this is useful, please feel free to ask any questions you have below.

Ok, locking this one now - fresh thread here:

Not wanting to pee on anyone's parade here, but proper analysis would surely be far more nuanced than that, especially going beyond the weekend in terms of specifics of the cold's longevity, how far south it reaches/stays & any snow risk around that. All the data points don't point in one direction. Many point in a similar direction, but there are operational runs (namely the GFS today) and plenty of ensemble members from various models which show differing solutions. Yes, the colder outlooks in the shorter to medium term do look more likely right now and I'd certainly take the UKMO and ECM above the GFS 9 times out of 10, but that's not the same as the colder/coldest options being the only possibility on the table. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004114

Not wanting to pee on anyone's parade here, but proper analysis would surely be far more nuanced than that, especially going beyond the weekend in terms of specifics of the cold's longevity, how far south it reaches/stays & any snow risk around that. All the data points don't point in one direction. Many point in a similar direction, but there are operational runs (namely the GFS today) and plenty of ensemble members from various models which show differing solutions. Yes, the colder outlooks in the shorter to medium term do look more likely right now and I'd certainly take the UKMO and ECM above the GFS 9 times out of 10, but that's not the same as the colder/coldest options being the only possibility on the table.

I understand the sport, but I definitely think that waiting for the model time slot to come out rather than guessing what it may show would make life much simpler!

There seems to be a 5pm thing every night at the moment, sorts itself out pretty quickly though - seems fine now?

I do think sometimes, some people miss one key point: It's a discussion forum. If you're looking for a concise local forecast, a forecast with no bias towards where people live or what weather type they're interested in, you aren't going to get that in a discussion thread. There are lots of great places to get those things, inc on this website. But to expect the model thread to be an open, active, fun and busy thread, along with being perfectly concise and with no bias ( either based on poster location or weather type preference) is just an impossible ask, and always has been.

Can I recommend the highlights thread?

Yep, to an extent - more info here: Sea Effect Snow - the UK version of Lake Effect snow. Very cold air across the North Sea WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Very cold easterly flow, found when a high pressure sits over Scandinavia and brings air to the UK from Siberia. If conditions are right, significant snow can result.

Colder air inbound!

More yellow makes it hard to see hail on the lighter backgrounds. We iterated through loads of options, and changing the snow was the best of them. I think darkening the freezing rain will have the desired effect.

We may well make the freezing rain a bit darker, but ultimately as it stood, the hail was extremely close to the snow colour and they were virtually impossible to tell apart without zooming. Currently, to my eye at least, there is a reasonable difference between snow and freezing rain.

Has been a bit cloudy here today, even had some sleety rain earlier. But yesterday was much more like it - even managed to catch some loose attempts at Lenticulars(ish!) over the Cairngorms.

I've moved a bunch of summer related posts from the last 24 hours or so into a general summer chat thread here: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99742-general-summer-chat/?do=getNewComment So, if you want to talk about summer, please use that one, so this one can stay winter related.

I don't think running at a higher resolution would be likely to make the EPS members more likely to go wrong earlier in the run. I suppose it is possible that in having the resolution to forecast smaller features, some perturbations could be more liable to go off on tangents based on them, but having 50 of them should be a decent barrier to stopping any of that skewing the mean etc. I think in terms of the op being closer to the mean later in the run than the GFS. The fact the EPS has double the number of perturbations probably helps with that, in smoothing out the mean from outliers that may otherwise skew it somewhat if less perturbations were being run.

Using the insightful reaction - please read. The insightful reaction is for insightful posts, and those with enough of those reactions are copied to the model highlights thread. It's important that the insightful reaction is used only on that basis in this thread. Some people are seemingly using it for other reasons (for instance, sarcastically at times), which needs to stop. For those who repeatedly do this, we'll have no option but to stop them using any reactions, so as to protect the integrity and usefulness of the highlights thread.

They absolutely do take into account the geography - the models have heights, surface type, area type (urban vs countryside etc) built into them. But, they are bound by their resolution when it comes to that - so the GFS at 0.25 degrees will be averaging the geographical nature of the grid square over that, which is about 17km or so in our neck of the woods. So, it's not going to pick up small features, frost hollows and the like.

They may have earlier access to their own models, and probably to some of the others, but we're talking minutes rather than hours here. The models take the time they take to run, are initialised with data at their run time, then run sometime after that. So there isn't a great deal of flex time wise.

Enough already. Please head over to the climate area to discuss the science of climate change. Bearing in mind that the forum guidelines across the board ask everyone to stay respectful..

It's definitely had a wobble over the last 5 minutes or so, but seems to be recovering now.

They will also use very similar sources of global weather data for their starting conditions, but there will be some differences in terms of the sources and the way they use that data + of course the physics in the models themselves will be different. The location of where the model is run from isn't really a guide to where the models are strongest, though - for instance the ECM and Meto models are generally very good performers for US hurricanes despite them being made by European-based organisations. So, I'd not set any stall on that side of things. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4996234

You can view them here MOGREPS Model Viewer| Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

They will also use very similar sources of global weather data for their starting conditions, but there will be some differences in terms of the sources and the way they use that data + of course the physics in the models themselves will be different. The location of where the model is run from isn't really a guide to where the models are strongest, though - for instance the ECM and Meto models are generally very good performers for US hurricanes despite them being made by European-based organisations. So, I'd not set any stall on that side of things.

Just wanting to follow up on the note at the start of this thread and now at the top of each page in here. I understand when a group of people come together, online, offline or whatever, we're not all going to get on, enjoy each other's company, will have clashes of personality, opinion and so on. But, this and other threads on the community cannot be used to moan about or criticise other members. There is the facility to block other members posts (I know it's not perfect with quotes etc, but it's still helpful), there's more info on how to do that here: Beyond that, if you're thinking someone is trolling or disrupting things, please do report their posts, it's the quickest and best way to draw the teams attention to potential issues. If you do have any additional concerns or ideas you'd like to discuss, please head over to the private team contact forum and message us - all threads in there can only be seen by the person starting them along with the team: https://community.netweather.tv/forum/171-contact-the-forum-team-private-forum/