[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

I will take that from the UKMO

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

Bit too cold that, -812 

[Hot week - guess the temperature competition]

40.7c

[North west regional discussion]

Here in Liverpool, nothing, I thought it was snowing before but it was just someone scratching their head 

 

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

12z... getting better..

Colder soulutions growing.

The fat bloke on a bing..

Of pies and lager....keep scoffing my son?

12z london ens

Love your posts mate, really do.

Of pies and lager ...

Keep scoffing my son

 

BRILLIANT..KEEP IT UP MATE..

[Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016]

13 hours ago, Chris.R said:

I for one  don't want it to remain dry. No  meaningful rain for nearly 2 weeks, just constant sun. 

 

40 minutes ago, Richard Taylor said:

Someone moaning about 'low 20s C'? Believe me after the cool cloudy rubbish we have had to put up with here over the past week I would be very happy indeed to have low 20s!

 

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Unfortunately for snow lovers there's no chance of any widespread cold establishing in this mobile pattern so from that pov Winter does look like petering out on a disappointing note.

Where is his crystal ball..mmm what will the weather be on the 15th june..im in Portugal then

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

I know what the 12z EC DET is and also the EPS..i suggest you re-read what i have written with regards to uncertainty mid week..

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

Wrong.

 

"12z EC DET" refers to the ECM Op, EPS is the ECM ensembles. He then goes onto say "any upturn in temperatures may prove far less progressive than suggested by some runs" 

Ian is saying that the models are probably being overally progressive with shifting the cold away from the UK BUT a return to mobility is likely to happen one way or another, just perhaps not as quickly as progged in todays outputs.

"great caution urged over expressing any real confidence on how things unfold early-mid next week."

Right..

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

I think Ian is saying that the models are bringing milder air in sooner than what's currently expected

I think Ian is actually saying the previous gfs run was a mild outlier..he also implies caution on potential longevity of the cold spell after mid week..

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Hope this is not too off topic but wonder if anybody could assist. Presumably organisations like the Met have more tools to look at than the general public however presumably in the main they are looking at a lot of the same models.

On a site like this we can sometimes see that two people can look at a model and see totally different things therefore I wondered bow much human input there is to analysing the data as obviously they do not issue raw output - again sorry if off topic just curious.

Yes obviously the MO have a lot more forecasting tools than we can see on here for example MOGREPS and GLOSEA5 but they also use the ECM and GFS and other input data from around the world..

[Would you like a 'hunt for cold' model thread?]

Just a quick comment. .I first came across this site about 2 years ago.. i dont have any model reading background but i love to read all the more educated people on here. Its been wonderful and i personally wouldn't change it for anything..many thanks and keep up the great work..

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

Looks very much like a zonal pattern setting up after the weekend. I was heavily sceptical about any cold lasting longer than a few days. Also looks like the milder weather will last a while.[/quot

Really annoying post Alert!!!!!!

True. It is only the weather.

Enjoy your day and be thankful that we were not around 100 years ago. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82101-christmas-truce-of-1914/

Merry Christmas everyone

fergieweather, on 25 Dec 2014 - 01:05, said:

Happy Christmas all. As a final sign-off before indulgence tomorrow, I cite the UKMO Dep. Chief an hour ago, reference whatever you may read and/or assess into the future: "...confidence tapers off quickly toward the end of next week, and further changes in emphasis are possible in the coming days."

Enjoy the festive period!

john lets not be too hasty..if the MO are still struggling re boxing day (26th)..then this to me suggests that the experts are struggling..mild,cold, who knows..lets get one problem re boxing day low out the way before being too hasty..merry Christmas too one and all..

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

Got to laugh at some people on this forum. Just last night a lot of you were saying we are guaranteed an easterly. Today the same people are saying we are not. Kinda confusing to newbies and people who can't read charts. I don't know why people are analyzing charts that are outwith 5 days. The next 4 days are going to be cold pretty much everywhere in the UK, after that we will just need to see what happens

Im also a newbie..i just try to follow certain posters..maybe i could suggest Gibby for a totally

Unbiased view..others include nick sussex, TEITS, steve murr and Tamara (i understand her even less) but its a good education..

Don't panic anyway regarding the easterly being touted..according to the BBC weather forecast, anything after boxing day is up for grabs..they still haven't got the incoming low pressure narrowed down to where it will eventually

Depart from our little island..

Apologies to anybody i haven't included in my respected peer list as i know everyone on here is more learned than me..

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

The much signposted upcoming pattern is entrenched in the D10 charts:

 

GEM gemnh-0-240 (3).png ECM: ECH1-240 (6).gif

 

GFS P: gfsnh-0-240 (2).png

 

A very Atlantic driven period for the next 10 days plus. Obviously ECM has potential but I always discard the amplification (from D8-10) and look at the overall flow, especially when it has little support. Down south surface wise it translates to average temps overall: 

 

graphe6_0000_306_141___Londres.gif

 

The GEFS at D16 show no signal for a MLB or HLB in our region and the mean remains similar to D10: gensnh-21-1-384 ( .png

 

So the most likely solution till the end of December (at the moment) is a westerly flow with a mix of PM and TM shots. The mean of the 850s matches the 30 year average for London so normal December fare:

 

MT8_London_ens.png

 

I would say 75% certainty for the next 10 days then dropping to about 50% in that pattern continuing till D16. The extra uncertainty is in how the Canadian PV lobe is dealt with. The overall consensus is that it will

The much signposted upcoming pattern is entrenched in the D10 charts:

 

GEM gemnh-0-240 (3).png ECM: ECH1-240 (6).gif

 

GFS P: gfsnh-0-240 (2).png

 

A very Atlantic driven period for the next 10 days plus. Obviously ECM has potential but I always discard the amplification (from D8-10) and look at the overall flow, especially when it has little support. Down south surface wise it translates to average temps overall: 

 

graphe6_0000_306_141___Londres.gif

 

The GEFS at D16 show no signal for a MLB or HLB in our region and the mean remains similar to D10: gensnh-21-1-384 ( .png

 

So the most likely solution till the end of December (at the moment) is a westerly flow with a mix of PM and TM shots. The mean of the 850s matches the 30 year average for London so normal December fare:

 

MT8_London_ens.png

 

I would say 75% certainty for the next 10 days then dropping to about 50% in that pattern continuing till D16. The extra uncertainty is in how the Canadian PV lobe is dealt with. The overall consensus is that it will move east in the first 10 days then return back towards Greenland/NE Canada afterwards.

move east in the first 10 days then return back towards Greenland/NE Canada afterwards.

I am very new to model watching and am trying to learn all the time but how can one be 75% certain for a whole 10 days..surely even the MO cant do this..

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

[Where or when have you seen the METO forecast for our UK winter..just asking..because i would love to see it..for my locale,liverpool, the METO are suggesting a cooler start to winter than usual..please post a link with the METO forecast for winter, many thanks quote name=Jason M" post="3078250" timestamp="1417375124]Hmm, I'm going to dissent and say that I think the charts tonight are very poor really. The ECM 240 is very much in line with the picture being painted on most of the GEFS. I felt yesterday that there was a trend to pull the Azures high further west but this hasn't really been followed through today and the trend over the last 48 hours has been towards a flatter zonal flow.

Of course things are different to last year in many ways but there are no signs of anything notably cold out towards mid month. the strat may change things down the line and it will be interesting to see what happens there, especially with METO suggesting the balance of probabilities lies with a warmer than average winter. I'm guessing they are not really factoring in the strat side of things yet.

Jason

[Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards]

I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-( 

Please Frosty keep the faith. .your enthusiasm has kept me going this winter in search of the cold weather. .don't give up now..

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

Can anyone help me, What is the thick black line between yellow and green called? And why is it relevant (i.e. bolded in this way)

The black line is the 552 dam contour (of the 500 hPa surface) - highlighted as the approx. median value to trace major troughs/ridges in pattern.

[North West Regional Discussion 22/03/13 08z ------>]

Out and about in liverpool although still snowing seems to be melting faster..very slushy under foot, will be treacherous when it freezes though

[North West England Regional Discussion 17th March 2013>]

Meto app now showing heavy snow all day Friday for us in liverpool and a maximum temp of 1c.. I will eat my hat if that verifies..

[North West England Regional Discussion 09/02/13 20z ------>]

When people post comments like "it's snowing here or it's raining now" can they give us a general location please..btw moderate heavy rain here in liverpool.. And 5c so no chance of any snow here yet..