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Purga

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Everything posted by Purga

  1. Too much analysis leads to paralysis! It's a single Op run in a complex and highly unusual evolution. No NWP is ever going to be tightly consistent within the ensemble envelope and inter run variability is to be expected. Chill...
  2. Just a snippet..... METO have briefed the Government that there's a 70% chance of 'severe cold' in early February. Half decent odds in my book.
  3. Bit pushed for time to post atm - a plea to all. Don't tell the family or friends.... YET!
  4. The well predicted time of the stratospheric down-well to the troposphere has been around Jan 22nd, with an initial focus just N and NE of the UK, notice now how ECM & EPS are responding. GFS & GEFS also starting to react now albeit lagging the Euros. There's also some tropically-induced amplification of the N. America - N. Atlantic pattern coming into play, which, typically, GFS also has underestimated - GEFS less so. The timing of the former is highly dependable but the degree of impact less so, while for the tropical forcing it's the other way around. It will be very, very surprising if we didn't see a lengthy spell of very blocked weather patterns sometime between 22nd Jan and mid-Feb, and there are very good probabilities for at least one period of highly snow favourable conditions associated with that. The odds are well stacked in our (Coldies) favour the details to be determined so let's enjoy the unfolding drama...
  5. Mmmm,,,, blocking High Intensifying over Scandi, NW/SE tracking jet, trigger elongating low just NW of the UK ready to slide SE , low heights over Europe... Cp air being advected SW,,,, Can't for the life of me imagine where this is heading??,,,,,,, Bitter easterlies anyone?
  6. Blow the wind easterly, easterly, easterly, Blow the wind east 'cross the bonny north sea. Blow the wind easterly, easterly, easterly, Blow, bonny breeze, my snow fest to me!
  7. Not a bad mean chart for D8 The amount of energy in the northern arm of the jet has been steadily reduced. Only a dramatic & unlikely, reversal of that trend would break the build of upper heights behind the surge of energy south next week.
  8. OK so something in the GEFS 06z to cheer the troops up - a BIG shift to blocked! Mostly Northern blocking to boot. E.G.
  9. This gave about 4" of snow in parts of southern England & is a 'worse' chart than what we are seeing at D10.
  10. Another variation on the theme Snowy and blowy for the north in parts
  11. It could have been worse - a lot worse! This is still a very good evolution & could give some serious snow to some.
  12. London EPS spreads showing a prolonged period of below -5 850hP after next Thursday. All to play for
  13. What a difference a run can make 12z 240hrs yesterday - GLUM 00z 240hrs today - EUPHORIA! Just goes to show how volatile things are though & how important it is not getting too hung up on one Op run.
  14. 12z GEFS improved greatly 00z 06z 12z Notice the uptick to less cold in the 00z/06z has gone - so the cold has longevity.
  15. Latest from http://weatheriscool.com : The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other yrs in the ERA interim record! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -8.6 m/s Weakest zonal wind 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date: -8.4 m/s 2004 So record breaking times - can we get record breaking cold? Don't bet against it!
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