captaincroc

Please say that is the case! i want the college to call a Snow Day! As we have a lot of students coached in.

I've been thinking about this this week... The models are updated regularly and you would hope that in that time they are forever correcting it's errors - like sliders being programmed further and further south - if it does cross through the midlands then this is where the mean path has always been. If it does end up Devon etc then the models definitely need a tweak to be so wrong at such a relatively short period of 'modelling' time.

If I remember correctly, it was yesterdays 6z that pushed the low north for it then to be corrected on the 12z. It is run at a slightly lower resolution than the 0z and 12z so maybe that could be the case. Good to see you posting again Aaron! I can't believe some of the wording used in the warnings, "vehicles stranded" etc.

Can't complain! haha

Hi Damian. As you might have seen earlier in the thread I am off Colwyn Bay on Friday for the weekend. This is obviously on the North Wales coast so prime slot for shower activity. What do you think realistically will happen with accumulation? As I know it's on the coast but someone in the NE thread said they got settling snow on the beach at -7 uppers last week?

Thank you, sorry in work so not access to Bookmarks! haha

Have you got a link to it please?

Hi Jay. that chart is just up to 6am on Friday, before a lot of the fun and games begin.

It's good as that is Friday 6am, so really before the showers and temps have really got going. Exciting weekend for parts of the region for sure.

Same here, i'm travelling to Colwyn Bay for my birthday for the weekend. Looks like it will be snow there too, more marginal as on coast but only a few miles inland and it should be winter wonderland.

The funny thing is I won't be around this weekend to really appreciate the falls from the streamers, but for us to be especially added to the Met Office warnings specifically is pretty exciting. As if the slider does miss us then it will be bitterly cold under lightish winds so the snow should stay. Let's see how the slider pans out on the 12z's.

To be honest the ECM could be wrong as it has been before but you're right it is one that isn't to be bet against lightly. I do feel slightly more apprehensive than I did last night due to the ECM becoming more marginal but we have lots of fun and games until it's sorted and 'sliders' will never please everyone. I personally just want the cold to last - rather than intermittent - so I would favour the GFS outcome for sure. Maybe the experts could refresh us on how sliders are modelled in regards to their biases? This might give us a hint of what to expect in a few days?

For me I feel it is more advantageous for all if the trends are more SW moving than the other way as it keeps us in the cold air for a lot longer. Definitely exciting times!

I ain't CreweCold but I am also from Crewe, work in Crewe but luckily live at 180m on Alsagers Bank so this setup is perfect for me. The extra altitude will just help with cover and intensity of precipitation. I know for sure he will be excited but we have been burned sooo many times with being just on the wrong side or marginal, even in 2010 at points.

What is the scale roughly for these, as in depth?

I agree that the 18z - for me - isn't as good as the 12z but it looks like the models are toying with height rises over Scandinavia and are stuggling to decide what is going to happen. As the charts just don't look 'real' from 144 onwards. Not saying what is going to happen but I have a feeling better heights will be shown in time and as you said things will back west in future runs. Just my hunch.

The way the control goes is how I think it will go, seems the most plausible route.

Boom! This is what I have wanted to see this morning, clearer heights to the north and only way is under for the lows. Will keep cold air in longer too. Have to go our now but can't believe this chart (yes it can change haha) at 144 hours.

You couldn' make it up...i live on a hill in the Cheshire Gap but am away all that weekend for my birthday. ?

Even if it's the dogs dinner any positive movements do bode well for later, so if it is more amplified then that is a bonus, be it small.

Didn't you say a week or so back about the floodgates opening on a day in December? Something to do with the delay in the warming of the atmosphere? As for me it just looks like there is a block of cold that just wants to flood south? Whether we get it is another things but it's something I feel the models are picking up and hence their flip-flopping?

Want to post this before the 12z GFS comes out but this is the run with the most data (along with the 0z) if my memory serves me correct. So let's hope it's a good start to the 12z suite.

The models have chucked out so many scenarios post 144 everyday. I think we need to focus more on the changes in the *very* reliable as small tweaks can make all the difference. You can the the atlantic high *so* close to being sucked up to Greenland, only a few tweaks will allow that to happen (12z CFS). Yes, the odds are the high will probably sink into a momma Atlantic block but the more *good* tweaks in the early part of the runs is what I'm after. Whatever happens, it is a brilliant time to be model watching.

So chuffed I moved onto a hill! haha. We had a dusting here this morning. 180m up now I am!

We need to look at the early charts and see the trends in those as it's pointless to a degree looking any further at present. All the runs from all the models flip massively every run in the extended range as the just struggle with this rare pattern. I am happy in the fact that the lows have a more southerly track early on, yes, not there yet but better than the 12z GFS. Baby steps.