StretfordEnd1996

I think you're right about the run of mild Autumns following milder than average Summers! Below I've noted down all Summers with a CET of over +1.0 above the 61-90 average. I've then stated the CET of the Autumn that follows and how that differs from the same 30 year average for the Autumn CET. 1983 - 10.4 (+0.2) 1984 - 10.8 (+0.6) 1989 - 10.7 (+0.5) 1995 - 11.3 (+1.1) 2003 - 10.3 (+0.1) 2005 - 11.5 (+1.3) 2006 - 12.6 (+2.4) 2013 - 10.7 (+0.5) 2016 - 10.8 (+0.6) 2017 - 10.9 (+0.7) 2018 - 10.7 (+0.5) 2019 - 10.1 (-0.1) 2020 - 11.0 (+0.8) 2021 - 11.7 (+1.5) ^Forgive me if I've missed a few Summers in this list I've put "ALL" cooler than average Autumns following milder than averages Summers in bold. Okay - you missed one. 2019. Not that it was a particularly big attempt at a cold Autumn though! If I've time later I'll go through the precipitation totals too - EDIT - if you compare to the 81-10 average a handful are cooler than this average but by literally just 0.1-0.5'C or so, so nothing major

While I agree in part I also don't really want it to be dark at 9am either ... It's not really taken away from us though? The mornings at least get lighter for a time.. Plus is there really much daylight you can use at that time of the year around 17:00 when its probably cold, wet and windy outside?

As far as precipitation goes in this set of GEFS ensembles - if rain is what you're looking for then you can't really get much wetter than this IMO - (especially at this time of year and in comparison to recent months anyway) - Just an almost constant conveyor belt of precipitation spikes there. Of course it's absolutely nothing conclusive but the next 10 days or so (starting from the weekend) the building blocks are in place for a largely unsettled period coming up in my opinion. Those upper temps are doing their best to just stick above the 30 year average and they succeed in doing so for the most part.

I'd agree - below are anomaly charts against the 30 year average (81-10) - Looking comfortably milder than average into the new week give or take for most regions anyway ..... But perhaps a colder picture in around a weeks time?

It looks close to being that way yes! Well, all depends on where you are but expect most places to see a good bit of rain at times. Not just next week - this starts this weekend - according to the latest GFS (I'm never a fan of using GFS for precipitation or rainfall but it paints something of a picture) - D10 Not sure about how windy it will be yet but naturally it'd likely to be a bit more breezy than of late at the least. A mostly unsettled first week of Autumn shaping up, in my view..

Yes thanks for your reply and I'm glad someone from Manchester area does agree with me in that it just misses out on being a classic - I thought a lot would disagree and tell me my expectations are too high xD I think in summary. 1976 just had everything. From start to finish. Week after week day after day (well, alright that may be overstating it a bit) but there was just always something going on. This Summer has been close, but not quite like that (up here anyway). I guess the consistency just hasn't quite been there all the time. Additionally one thing I haven't mentioned that is probably lowering my love for this Summer for a personal bias point of view is that the 3 periods I booked off work just sods law happened to be a washout. (Jubilee, around third week in July (after the 40'C heatwave) and more recently). Of course it would happen like that

Probably the regional variations - sounds like 1976 all 3 Summer months for the whole of the nation from the north of Scotland to the south coast of England had an absolutely glorious Summer as good as you can realistically ever get it. This Summer, for me in Manchester, it's very close to a classic and others may well say it is a classic but IMO up here, 2018 and 1995 were better - 2022 just seems to have lacked something at times compared to those two Summers but I can't quite put my finger on it and other people from my way are welcome to disagree. 1976 for whatever reason in the media and the general population just seems to have become this sort of belief that it was 10000 times better than any other Summer we've had since, 1995/03/18 included (which rarely get a mention in the media or general public - almost to the point where they are actually forgotten) when actually as you say, 76 wasn't that much hotter than either 2022 or 1995 as far as the CET goes. It just has gone on to receive something of a false obsession with a lot of people who don't actually have a clue at the weather stats like we do. 1995 and the like don't have this in any way and it's only really amongst weather communities that 1995 is remembered and talked about. But then again of course let's not forget, 1976 is still out on its own. It still holds the record. Still the ultimate big one.

With a CET of 7.6 I make it tied 11 coldest October so just outside the top 10 - a far cry from the coldest on record which was what looks to have been a ridiculously balmy month of October 1740 (CET 5.3 - -5.3'C below 61-90 average). .0.1 colder than the more recent October 1992 - would be interesting to compare any snow totals for Oct 74 vs Oct 92. October 1974 comes out at exactly -3.0'C colder than the 1961-1990 average. Brrrrr. Not seen many like this recently!

Oh wow that kind of caught me by surprise, I just walked to the shop and it was spitting ever so slightly - quick look at the radar and there has been some spotty bits of drizzle (if you could call it that) the last couple of hours - mostly over Yorkshire but a handful of isolated spots making their way over the Pennines too as can be seen by the radar - All moving from NE to SW but it's so light I haven't even noticed it until I was outside (I thought it was just a clear evening!)

62 days until clocks rewind - that's when for me it gets all a bit ... "cozy night in as it is cold and wet and pitch black at 16:00 outside"

More cloudy that I thought it would be today especially towards the end. But still a very nice day in all.

Very chilly start (well if you had a t-shirt on like me anyway outside at 06:45!) Car said 8'C think we could of dropped down a bit lower than that but not sure. A sign of things to come (further down the line? ) A comfortably dry one too - and here in Leigh blue skies are trying to break out through the thin cloud cover. Noted though is a wet start for some of us NW'ers thanks to a small band of light showers north of Preston and around Morecambe Bay/Lancaster.

Thanks for your continued information of great value - If Aug CET comes out at 18.7 I make it the seasonal CET for this famous (or infamous? ) Summer to be around 17.2, on par with 2003 although I may have got my mathematics wrong and someone way wish to correct me there. Or something then around 17.1-17.4 in that ball park. (1947, 1983, 1846, 2003, 2006, 1995, 2018). Within the top 5 hottest (or tied fifth).

Just can't see it IMO but we'll see.

Another dull, overcast and wet start at home - well wet on the ground anyway, but not actually raining (not entirely sure exactly when in the night it did rain to be honest). Staying dry though by the looks of things for most of us today - (and possibly for the foreseeable(?) baring a few scattered showers possible tomorrow and over the weekend).

Need to get rid of those areas of HP to our West then that's been there for so long, get the jet stream running back through I'm personally struggling to see this anytime soon

Looking at the radar I'm surprised you've only had 1.8mm of rain - it's been heavy on and off for a good few hours now, woke me up early doors .. perhaps you just managed to miss the most of it. Extremely wet, rainy and dull when I got up this morning. Not so much in the way of rain at work but certainly dull and gloomy.

I've no idea where we're up to with storm names either! Seems so long since we had a named one (yes I know it's been Summer) but maybe they should just start a clean slate and call the next storm from the start of the alphabet. Aaron A. Aaronson or something.

Mostly dull day here in Leigh it felt a bit warm stuffy in this office a bit earlier but feels a bit cooler again now. Dry overall.

Hah seems like a safe bet from a lot of us!

Could you elaborate in any way shape or form? Seems a little confusing to include a game of hangman on the end of your post..? I have gone for 15.5 which I didn't know would put it in the top 10 warmest but 15.5 CET September just doesn't feel out of the ordinary these days when making this prediction.

I don't think he meant it quite as literally - i.e. he never said a quick switch to Autumn which will then last for the remainder of September, October (and November). From my gatherings this morning perhaps just one or two signs things may turn a tad more unsettled - which at this time of year can easily be stated as an early onset of Autumn but admittedly I'm looking towards the end of the reliable for this - Still - some cross model agreement My gut instinct, I'm not convinced xD especially after what we've seen for the majority of the Summer but more importantly before that it is looking somewhat dry and settled for a time which covers the period over the bank holiday, again though I'm not having this as a done deal yet (well for my location anyway - S and SE as ever high confidence now of a dry and pleasant weekend?)

Nothing more typical than our lovely area NW England getting a drenching compared to elsewhere!

At what time of year do we expect ice/snow cover begin to form at lower areas around the pole. Always get my timings mixed up each year. October time maybe?

15.5 for me. Within the top 10 warmest