[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Chesil View Thanks for your input. Your positive and informative posts I've enjoyed reading like many here. Till the next chase . Perhaps its time for spring.

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

Light snow showers falling now. 3 hours earlier than the Met office forecast for here. Better get to the Co-op for supplies if you know what I mean!

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

The front is coming in a bit faster than anticipated it seems. -5,5C here this morning showing dewpoint of -6.4C. You'd have to think some heavy snow is on its way. When have I thought that before.  Its a pity the low hangs around bringing in milder air so dont think snow is going to be around long what ever. Still fingers crossed.

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

Very mild today, 12C this evening. Happy if winter returns for us next week as the charts suggest. I do like spring......when its spring. Not seen any snow here in the Borders so far this winter but I think we will by months end and possiby even by week end. Thanks for all the pics from Kilties who got some snow and thanks to you for making a deprived coldie remember why I love snowfall so much!. Some beautiful pics. Its the 2nd of Feb and euphemisim aside plenty time for us snow lovers still to wax the sledge.

[Model banter and emotions]

 Ice Day

Really. Our Northern members!. OK. No surprises there mind.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @WYorksWeather

Well I'm not so glass half empty. These ensembles are trending colder as the charts you posted show. How cold? well we will need to wait and see.

GFS Thursday - Saturday - Monday

Still dropping and a growing cluster at -5 to -10 . Oh and that is London in the far South

 

 

 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

17 minutes ago, MJB said:

Ok, it's not extreme weather, lowish temps, a front approaching .

It certainly isn't a wow factor. People aren't surprised when snow is mentioned up North.

That because they dont live here. Huge differences in the weather in various parts of Scotland were you interested enough not to generalise.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 hours ago, MJB said:

Beeb forecast have lowest temps around 2 c by day ( south ) but mentioned sharp overnight frosts.

Windchill from this tomorrow in the South -2

More widespread snow in Central Southern Scotland on Tuesday. No mention or chart shown for the LP in the Channel, tells me it's insignificant. Mild and wet next weekend.

Standard winter week I'd say.

 

 

'Widespread snow in Central Southern Scotland' isnt a 'standard winter week' in January believe me.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, tom_f123 said:

Without a doubt one of the biggest busts in NW model viewing history 

The worst ever

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

7 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:

I called this, people get too excited by runs that are days out. Always proceed with caution.

You called what. Something that hasn't happened yet?

Nope I'd prefer to proceed with enthusiasm rather than negativity and doom as this is a hobby.  As an adult I think I handle the disappointment of the weather not going the way I wanted and if it snows its all been good.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 hours ago, Nick123 said:

Well that's how I'm reading it too unless my glasses are broken  

Must be a Specsavers in Newcastle

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

21 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

 GFS Ensembles back this up also!..Yes ECM is good, but days 9and 10 on that model have always been for the fairies!

Lol two warmer runs at the time you show is not much support is it. Its also 10 days away and UKMO and ECM are different.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

40 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I’m afraid we’ve all seen this movie script before. 

The inevitable chipping away of the cold spell has begun by a couple of the models. I expect this will now continue and we’ll be left with a few frosts if we’re lucky. 

Hard to remain positive when you’ve see this painful process many time previously. 

The same thing happened in the 2018 spell though. After initial excitement the models at one point showed it trending south into France for a few runs narrowly missing us with much teddy chucking. The runs corrected nearer the time and we had a direct hit. So what you suggest is simply not always true is it. We dont know what's the case here yet. More runs needed!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

38 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

You don’t wait to see how your football team did at the end of the season you enjoy the highs and lows of each game and the hope and despair. 

That explains a lot its footie fans discussing the weather on here.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Can’t fault the consistency from GFS… newest on the left. Monster Atlantic ridge. 

And much better shape with the high pressure squeezing into Greenland

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

9 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I was only commenting on December and I hope you are right

Being hopeful is all us coldies have, living in a little thin island off of the Atlantic as winter comes. Over optimism and lack of doubt is dangerous in most things in life but not in this. My hopes or fears or anyones for that matter dont impact the weather. We get what we get. So please Just let us coldies enjoy the hope this season brings. Tell us there is no hope if you like but dont expect us to accept it.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

It looks like we are now heading toward the usual December fair with attempts at Atlantic blocking failing.

So perfect for you then. I suspect you're wrong however. Winter isn't over nor is cold in December I suspect.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

13 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Unfortunately the GFS Op is in the minority with its amplified run. Need to see the support for this increase in coming few runs and see the other models agree.

With support though.

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

A few more days of this dreich stuff to suffer before looking likely high pressure comes in. Might be cold down south but average temps wise and cloudy for us lower and upper kilties but hopefully still dry. I'm taking note as I need to hire a digger soon, no point until the ground dries out a bit. A frost would help a lot, break up the soil and warm my coldie heart . GFS 12Z looking hopeful.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Weird seeing the snow levels driving north yesterday and today  Plenty snow yesterday in the Borders and Lothians. Nowt above that at all to Aviemore then winter scenes in Tomatin. Tomatin looking fab today then nowt at Inverness all the way up to Wick. Still lovely here, sunsets to die for.  Dull start to winter my weeble.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Looks like we may have at least a week of this cold. Tbh a week is enough. I'd like a break to get prepped for the real cold coming.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

A bit warmer than forecast now. 1.8C.  Snowfall still hanging on - just..... Beautiful night all the same. Vastly better than whats gone before.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

All and all a pretty lovely day today. Cold, temps didn't get above freezing until after midday when the light snow started falling again. I could see a low winter hazy sun through the snow clouds, it looked pretty special. What a start to a coldie lovers winter and its still not winter yet.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

18 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Your posts are becoming tedious..Whether its Summer or Winter it's always the same mockery and doomed to fail from you. Instead of posting gifs and getting a rise out of folks try posting some charts for a change! 

It really grinds my gears how some just say its never gonna work out cause it never does attitude. Apart from the favourable met update there's plenty of interest in a fair few ens that would definitely bring wintry syonotics..and I've only viewed a few of them.

Perhaps some should come back in 2 weeks if it's gone wrong...then feel free to congratulate yourselves...until then keep stum.

Dont be disheartend Matt. Folk like me, like you, like most who come here on this site for winter come here excited in December (November for me) with hope of the seasonal weather our little Isle seldom provides.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

12 hours ago, Mair Snaw said:

Those of you that have wood burning stoves.. what type of wood do you burn? Trying to source hardwood but really not sure what is best for burning to length of burn etc.. also anybody use these heat logs that i keep seeing? If so any good.?

We use wood primarily for heating and cooking these days, so buy 12 tonnes at a time, complete logs and process them ourselves which is considerably cheaper but time consuming. Not everyone has that as an option I realise but using so much has given me a fairly good understanding of what timber to buy for burning, well of whats readily available in Scotland. Of hardwoods as mentioned ash is great. Low moisture content even when green. For softwood I've become a big fan of larch. Denser than usual softwood with a high resin content so it needs to be burned properly in a good stove and a good chimney but well worth it. Seasons quickly, easy to split and I reckon its not far from birch in calorific value, but cheaper and faster drying. Interestingly and somewhat sadly both species, ash and larch are currently being decimated by disease. There is not a mass of ash in Scotland in comparison but acres and acres of larch are coming down here.