WhiteFox
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HOWS THAT FOR A RAMPEDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Paul S
A rampede by the Met Office, which is good! I think the reason yesterday wasn't too bad on the roads in the South is because most looked at the weather when they got up and then placed a call to the boss... Much more dangerous is the snow coming during the daytime and everyone rushing to get home. I think the Met have to be careful here and it's good to see them getting the warnings out; I just hope that if it doesn't come off we don't get a lot of people moaning about how rubbish they are!
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There we go again with computer models TWS, you know my opinion on them!
Pfff. Computers. What have they ever done for us? Contributed to climate change (if you believe in it of course).
1987: I can remember widespread disruption across the south albeit under much more severe conditions than over the past two days. The same is true of several winters prior to 1987; school was closed nearly every winter for a couple of days because of the weather.
Re this spell; nothing like 1991 despite the falls of snow. The continent wasn't cold enough in advance; not a classic Easterly is longevity, but it certainly dumped a large quantity on some areas. What we got was a one-off mix of just the right upper-air and ppn; something which used to happen much more regularly (completely anecdotal before anyone jumps on me)...
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As an example of what Roger is describing, in December last year, Denver went from a high of 72oF on Saturday, to heavy snow on Sunday evening followed by a high of 27oF on Monday. Basically anywhere East of the Rockies and North of Northern Texas in the West as far East as Ohio is prone to wild temperature swings which can be at their most intense most during winter time. North of a warm source of moisture in the Gulf, and south of a large cold airmass; perfect ingredients for sharp temperature contrasts and the perfect recipe for tornadoes of course!
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Severe thunderstorm warning issued just to my north:
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... CENTRAL BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
In fact, a tornado warning has just expired for Westchester County and Bronx. A train of storms has now developed, and as I speak it is like night-time outside (it's not quite 6pm here). The storms have developed very quickly this afternoon:
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All kicking off in Chicago right now. I'm sitting over in Kalamazoo, MI, about 150 miles East. A PDS (particularly dangerous situation) watch has just been issued for Chicago, North West Indiana and South West Michigan. A strong bow-echo on the doppler and two tornado warnings have already been issued for Cook county. Even without the tornado warnings, winds are gusting to 60-80mph. I wouldn't fancy being in O'Hare tonight trying to get out!
TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 758 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT...
* AT 754 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG ROTATION IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRANKLIN PARK...MOVING EAST AT 42 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... NORRIDGE...HARWOOD HEIGHTS...AND PARK RIDGE BY 805 PM... LAKEVIEW...LOGAN SQUARE...ROGERS PARK...AND HUMBOLDT PARK BY 815 PM... MONTROSE HARBOR...LINCOLN PARK...AND NAVY PIER BY 820 PM...
THIS TORNADO WARNING INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO.
TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL LA SALLE... NORTHERN WILL...SOUTHERN KENDALL... NORTHERN GRUNDY...DUPAGE...COOK... SOUTHERN LAKE AND SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES...
AT 756 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MUNDELEIN TO BENSENVILLE TO WILLOW SPRINGS TO MOKENA TO CHANNAHON...MOVING EAST AT 62 MPH.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... BANNOCKBURN BY 800 PM... LAKE FOREST...LAKE BLUFF...WINNETKA...AND WILMETTE BY 805 PM... WILMETTE HARBOR...UNIVERSITY PARK...THORNTON... AND STEGER BY 810 PM... SAUK VILLAGE BY 815 PM... DOWNTOWN CHICAGO BY 805 PM...
THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
In fact, as I type a tornado has been reported on the ground East of Elgin:
Possible tornadoes also reported at Elmhurst and Lincoln Park/Navy Pier. No confirmations yet, but events are happening quickly right now!
Further Updates 2020CDT:
At 758 PM... local law enforcement reported a tornado near Elmhurst.
This tornado was located near Elmhurst... moving east at 41 mph.
Franklin Park is near O'Hare.
At 758 PM... trained weather spotters reported a funnel cloud. This
tornado was located near Franklin Park... moving east at 47 mph.
At 803 PM... local law enforcement reported a tornado. This tornado
was located near Schiller Park... moving east at 47 mph.
Heavy rain, tornado warning sirens sounding in downtown Chicago
Found a cool shot of the effect of the storm cell on flights in the area:
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The heat across the CONUS has been intense over the past week, and remains so into the start of next week. Dallas has been hitting highs of 105oF (41oC) and will probably reach 108oF today (42oC). In fact, Dallas has been over 100oF for five of the past six days and has another three or so to go.
Similarly, Denver has just broken a record; they recorded 19 days of 90oF or over which beat the previous streak of 18 set in about 1903. In fact, Denver is also up to 100oF at the moment. The heat extends across much of the Low Plains and Texas, with many places recording triple-digit heat. In some places, the heat must be completely unbearable; adding in humidity, places like Memphis, TN have felt like 120oF +.
There are two exceptions to the heat right now; the North East and the North West, who are both under a trough right now.
I had an amazing flight from Chicago to New York last night; a line of storms over Northern Ohio provided quite the light show out of the right hand side, and then we had to divert to the south to avoid another cell which meant we had another light show on the left hand side for quite a while.
Anyway, this line of storms has now reached New York; we are under a severe thunderstorm watch until 6pm, and have just had a severe storm warning cancelled as an approaching storm broke up somewhat (looks like South Connecticut is getting hammered right now). Another line is coming in about an hour or so; it's going to be a lively day!
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Was it a decent storm? Any pics?
I notice it seems a very similar scenario to what we get during Spanish plumes, especially here in the SE, with land and an approaching cold front from the west, and a surge of warm humid air pushing from the south ahead of it.
Hoping for a similar set up Monday evening
No; it was getting late, and the storms are far to dangerous to be wandering around in! Besides that, I would have been soaked as would my camera...
No flooding here, but I'm not surprised that some places did flood. We had another round of storms at about 3am which I slept through.
The system spread on into Maine this morning causing a tornado watch to be issued up there.
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Storm right overhead now. Very heavy rain, lots of lightning and loud thunder. Coupled with the sound of rain hitting the A/C unit, it's very noisy right now. I wouldn't be too surprised if we lose power at some stage tonight. We shall see....
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The storm shown above dumped 0.54 inch of rain in seven minutes on Newark airport. That's some pretty heavy rain! The TV is on the blink now as well. Looks like we've got another round of storms just over the water in New Jersey which is heading this way; some red echoes involved in that storm as well. A noisy night ahead methinks...
The severe watch has now been extended until 5am EDT. Can't say I'm surprised looking at the radar to the SSW!
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Latest satellite picture showing storm and my position (shame this isn't available in the UK - the radar capabilities are amazing over here):
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It's been a while coming, but a Severe Thunderstorm Warning has just popped up on the TV (it woke me up!):
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 924 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... EASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... SOUTHERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...
* AT 923 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TOTTENVILLE...OR NEAR SAYREVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 36 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... TOTTENVILLE BY 930 PM... HUGUENOT AND CLARK BY 935 PM... LINDEN BY 940 PM... ELIZABETH AND TODT HILL BY 945 PM... BAYONNE AND TOMPKINSVILLE BY 950 PM... JERSEY CITY AND HARRISON BY 955 PM...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
Looks to me like this will skirt Queens to the West and hit Manhattan and New Jersey on the border of Manhattan.
Also looks like they may have to extend the severe thunderstorm watch beyond 10pm (it's 9.30 now) as the front is taking a long time to cross this area.
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I'm going to Corpus Christi on Sunday as it happens. The guys I work with down there are considered 'essential workers' so they will have had to be on duty for the past 12 hours and probably the next 12. The system itself will have gone of course, but I'll try and get some pics of the aftermath, especially if I head south on South Padre Island.
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Here in New York we are at the hottest part of the year. The past week has seen temperatures reach 33+ for seven days in a row, and night-time lows between 22 and 26oC.
Right now it's 28oC, with a dewpoint of 22oC and humidity of 81%; so although the temperature is a good 7o below the peaks, it feels terrible. We're under a severe storm watch which explains the high humidity and thoroughly uncomfortable airmass:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES
IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
FAIRFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON
IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON PASSAIC UNION
IN NEW YORK THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
BRONX KINGS (BROOKLYN) NASSAU NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) ROCKLAND SUFFOLK WESTCHESTER
There are two lines of storms about 30 miles to the West of Manhattan training in a South-West to North-East direction, with the whole front moving slowly East. Could be a couple of fairly powerful storms from this system, so we shall see.
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Shouldn't be any shortage today I don't think. I'm flying from Minneapolis to Chicago then to New York. Chicago sits on the Northern edge of a huge area with a potential for strong thunderstorms. The area of low pressure bringing this weather is huge and potent:
As I sit here, the storms which have been rumbling away in the distance are now becoming so loud that I am going to have to sit and watch them for a while. Love it!
Good chasing guys!
A very potent looking line of storms down in Oklahoma moving towards Kansas City; I haven't had time to read today's updates, but if you're anywhere in the area I'm sure you'll have been woken up!
Anyway, my storm has passed over here on the northern fringe; not warm enough to produce anything severe, so just a really good light show. I'm currently in Maple Grove on the map below:
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I'm sat in my hotel room in Minneapolis at 1am watching a thunderstorm moving in from the south. Looks like the worst of it will miss us to the West, but there is constant lightning at the moment and a spectacular show going on. Anyone who has seen a Midwest thunderstorm knows what I'm talking about. Anyone who hasn't....then I recommend doing a couple of weeks of storm-chasing one spring. Your respect for nature will know no bounds once you've done it!
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Been busy for a while, but a couple of records missing on this thread!
I'm currently in the Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St Paul for those who don't know) in Minnesota. A pleasant 16oC today, but last week was a different matter. Snow fell here on Friday; not unusual at all for these parts - snow is quite possible pretty much from early October to late May, but further north in Minnesota towards the border with North Dakota near Fargo they had 18 inches of snow in one day. This beat the previous daily record of 14 inches. This area does not receive the extreme snow totals which you would see further East; there is not enough moisture. The heaviest snowfalls usually occurs in March when systems are able to tap the moisture from the Gulf. The fact that this storm occurred on April 26th to 27th reinforces the fact that winters in the Upper Midwest and high Plains can be very, very long! I don't have the data, but if Kold Weather reads this, I'm pretty sure that Winnipeg recorded a couple of ice days last week.
Incidentally, Yellowstone remains in the grip of winter. It is estimated that up to half of the bison herd has died over the season due to the extended cold conditions. Daytime highs remain below freezing, but a let up is in sight; temperatures are forecast to rise to the dizzy heights of 8oC by Monday!
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Cannot Wait now only 50 days away. I am sure Michael is going to Love this experience and I just noticed he will be 64 years Old on the day we fly out, so I am sure we will have a few beers and a nice meal in Dallas Fort Worth on the Sunday evening of Michaels Birthday!!
Paul Sherman
Take him to the Texas Roadhouse and give him the full 'saddle' treatment!
Looks slightly beyond my knowledge too ... though it looks limited to me to whether you have an internet connection on the move or not to get the 'live' streaming. Something that isn't out the question though if we can get some kind of mobile internet connection sorted out ... something Paul M might be able to sort out.My customers down in Texas tell me that the Sprint air-cards are not far off Broadband speed and work wherever there is a cell-phone reception. Don't know if it'll be worth the investment or not?
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down town Anchorage today
Shouldn't be much of a surprise up there! We had some snow here in Boise, ID this morning. I had no snowbrush, so had to make do with using the windscreen wipers and hoping the snow would fly off as I drove along...
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Still a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) tornado watch out for parts of Eastern Oklahoma. Haven't heard of any tornado reports yet though. Reports of baseball size hail however.
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As you say, weather in NYC (and other major US cities) has been fairly unspectacular this winter. Not so further north, with the major eastern Canadian cities and far northern US being hit with record breaking snowfalls (but not record breaking cold).
Yet this has been largely unreported in the US. Probably as I said, no major US cities affected, just northern 'Hicksville!'
The storm track has been very consistent and very favourable for New England this winter. Caribou, Maine has broken its all-time record with 192 inches of snow this winter.
I think it's fair enough that it has been largely unreported; such snowfall totals which don't really affect people are not of interest to most people other than us! Storms which cause problems and deaths are widely reported. Besides, everyone outside of those areas (I'm thinking Northern New England and the Lake-Effect Snowbelts) believe that they are permanently buried in ten feet of snow. To back up that belief somewhat, I see that Marquette, MI, collected just shy of 16 inches of snow today; not bad for the first day of April! 37 inches on the ground there right now.
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I think planes are designed so that internal equipment isn't damaged during lightning strikes, afterall, I imagine it is not that unusual. Though planes tend to avoid flying through thunderstorms due to the severe turbulence, large hail and wind shear associated with them- which can make it hazardous for landing/taking off in particular wrt to wind shear - more so than being struck by lightning. Probably shook up the passangers and crew alike though!
Geat footage though!
Indeed. There was a crash in 1985 attributed to microburst induced windshear.
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I was up in Albany, NY last Friday where they had about 3 inches of wet snow. A very distinct snowline with that system; about 20 miles south of Albany there was no lying snow at all.
It's been cool but largely unspectacular in NYC so far this spring. Apparently four of the past five Marches have had at least one day of 65oF temperatures. Not this year! A warm surge tomorrow, and another warm surge on Saturday associated with warm sectors, but cool other than that.
What do I care? I'm in Corpus Christi in Southern Texas where it's currently 26oC. Unfortunately it's cloudy and humid; we're to the south of the system which is bringing the severe storms further North. I'm not surprised so much moisture leads to such strong storms up there!
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interesting as well that they lean to the ECMWF solution for it along with the UK Met O rather than GFS!
The Euro has a lot of respect over here, especially in the medium range. Time and again we see the Euro pitted against the GFS with the Euro almost always coming closest to predicting the track of a storm from 5 days out. On a couple of occasions this winter the GFS forecast a blockbuster storm for the East coast whilst the Euro resolutely held on for a inland runner. Every single time the GFS trended towards the Euro solution and won through.
I do love the forecast discussions over here. It's interesting to see the factors they take into account when issuing forecasts; I'm pretty sure it's much the same at the UK Met when producing the FAX charts?
As for this storm, I think it's too late for a big event. Certainly the spring time looks to be trending cold, but with the recurrent theme this year being either suppressed systems flying out to sea, or coastal-huggers delivering rain, I see no reason for this to buck the trend, especially not in late March.
An interesting observation is that big March snowstorms tend to occur in years where there have already been a number of snowstorms, in other words the storm track is already well established. I would give this a 5-10% chance of producing 3 inches or more of snow for any of the big cities, with perhaps 6 inches or more further north into New England...
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Thoroughly miserable here in New York for the whole day. Rain, dull and chilly. Bring on spring!
Michael Fish ... Snow Events Less Likely
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Indeed. Talking about exceptional snow in London highlights just how uncommon lying snow has become in the capital. Certainly this used to happen much more frequently, but to say it's the heaviest in London (and much of the South East) for 18 years shows how little has fallen in between more than anything else. Synoptically snow will always remain possible so long as the sun fails to shine on the North Pole in winter time; it just seems that the right synoptics have become less common, a debate which we've had hundreds of times before and TWS has even written a dissertation on a related subject...