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nicknacknoo

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Posts posted by nicknacknoo

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I just don't believe this to be true. Here on the south coast I would say our winter is Jan, Feb, March. The sea is far too warm in December for us so we do well out of continental easterlies (if they appear). The holy Grail for us has always been a Scandinavian high and channel runners and these tend to be more prevalent in the latter winter months. The sun doesn't make that much difference when reflecting off dry powder snow 😀

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, weathercold said:

    Very much agree - so much was on our side going into this winter but the reality has been one that has to date been totally non descript. December washout and mild, record breaking Xmas mild. Jan - nothing to date, a few chilly days next week and then mild for the rest of Jan.

    Feb- you’d be a brave man to predict a cold and wintry Feb and with the sun stronger and the clock ticking once it’ gets to mid Feb Spring starts showing its hand and conditions need to be almost perfect to deliver snowy scenes across across all but Scotland. A sobering winter so far…AGW eh.

     

    Model output discussion - mid January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

    YES!! It's absolutely fantastic when you get two experienced people putting across their theories and takes on what might happen - but it is made so so so much harder if snipes and negative angles begin to influence the otherwise terrific takes on things 

    Indeed! Well put sir. The problem is everyone has their own weather "god". It could be the PV, northern jet arm, AH, phasing systems, MJO, AO, Teleconnections etc. Either way, as a community, if we were all to work together the discussions and leaning (and probably resultant forecasts) from this site would be much enhanced. The use of provocative language (such as tepid, toothless, blink and you'll miss it etc) is also pretty tiresome as is the relentless imbyism. Are we not,  as scientists, supposed to be objective, not subjective?

     Nick

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    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Funny you should mention the 20th Jan Teits. Both my late mum and my grandmother always used to say that winter 'proper' didn't really begin in southern England until around the 20th Jan. Maybe skewed by memories of 1947 but has often proved the case

     fully agree with this. Winter on the South Coast is Jan, Feb, march. In December warm channel waters are too moderating. Good news, we're only 1 week into winter.

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Well, if the extended range of the GFS shows anything, it's that, at T+384, numerical weather-forecasting models are not yet quite up to the job; they're getting better, yes, but there's still along way to go...

    The Law of Diminishing Returns is - I think - very pertinent when applied to computational advances; just because the MetO or NASA (or the Daily Express!:D) can double their computational power doesn't mean that their forecasts' accuracy-time will noticeably increase as a result?

    Personally, I think it'll be many years before 15-Day forecasts become properly viable, if they ever do; mathematical chaos might be a bugger to get round, no matter how elaborate the calculator is?

    I'm hoping that some of our resident mathematicians might come to my aid, here. I think I need it!:shok::help:

    It's not necessarily a computational problem since modern computers can crunch mind boggling quantities of data. I imagine it's more of a data assimilation problem, It's just not possible to record every possible variable in the system.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I can live with that, I believe in being honest.

     

    sorry I should have added making an objective assessment of all available data.

    Hi John, not aimed at you by any means as you are one of the more seasoned posters and I enjoy your year round input. However, for us 'newbies' it can be a little daunting when I do see good posters who have a sound take on the models being shot down on occasions. Anyway, I admire the bravery and the willingness to stake reputations on longer term model forecasting. Keep up the good work.

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