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daveinSB

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Everything posted by daveinSB

  1. daveinSB
    Some heavy showers breaking out ahead of the initial rain band
  2. daveinSB
    Here you go Beka! Hampshire authorities to declare major incident as Storm Ciarán heads to Hampshire WWW.HAMPSHIRECHRONICLE.CO.UK Local authorities; emergency services and partner agencies are ready to support residents across Hampshire & Isle of Wight, ahead of Storm…
  3. daveinSB
    It's quite staggering how much model divergence there still is at this point. I'm never 100% sure whether we should give the high resolution, short range models more credence at this point. Intuition says yes?
  4. daveinSB
    Interesting to see the details of Ciaran as the high resolution models get in closer range, with the latest UKV - albeit a single run, and to be taken with a pinch of salt without human input - bringing 2 distinct periods of high winds over our neck of the woods.
  5. daveinSB
    Ignore people commenting on individual model runs, and pay attention to the Met Office text and video forecast that are produced with expert human input from a blend of the computer models. There will be significant impacts from wind and rain across a large part of southern England and Wales. The Met Office deep dive, and the attendant charts are your best bet for now.
  6. daveinSB
    Part of the reason will be because despite individual movements between runs, the Metoffices blended forecast, with human input, has remained broadly the same throughout. Combined with the fact that the fact that it's been very wet recently, the trees are in full leaf, and the storm will be at its peak in populated areas in the daytime. It's much more than absolute data from individual model runs
  7. daveinSB
    Is the 18z Arpege even out yet? Or are you referring to another model?
  8. daveinSB
    Staying in Boscombe this weekend, got a direct hit from the cell just now, round 2 has no T&L so far, but here comes the rain
  9. daveinSB
    I remember heading down to the country park that day and seeing the water right up against the top of the only natural dam that was there at the time, in the visitor center car park.
  10. daveinSB
    I really noticed how it was under-reporting the intensity of the rain in North London earlier
  11. daveinSB
    There's a yellow warning for the south east, unless it's been cancelled?
  12. daveinSB
    Yellow warning for London and the South East for rain on Friday. Also a wind warning up the east coast
  13. daveinSB
    Warnings removed elsewhere, presumably just while they update them?
  14. daveinSB
    I'm very much on your side regarding overpopulation, but the weather warnings for rain and flooding are because its raining and flooding
  15. daveinSB
    I don't think there's any disputing that June was hot. The hottest on record by almost a whole degree. Whether that is hot enough for people's personal preference is another thing entirely.
  16. daveinSB
    I was just woken up by the rain in Shepherds Bush, a serious downpour!
  17. daveinSB
    Not sure of the temperature, but there was a pleasant chill in Mill Hill this morning as I arrived at work, perhaps too cold for just my polo shirt. Also noticed some dew, it felt rather autumnal indeed
  18. daveinSB
    Looking south from Melton Mowbray
  19. daveinSB
    Delighted to see initiation around the Swindon area, looking good for me in Melton Mowbray later this afternoon
  20. daveinSB
    Yep, some cumulus bubbling up looking east from Melton Mowbray currently
  21. daveinSB
    Torrential rain in W12 (Shepherds Bush) last 10 minutes, just letting up now. Our balcony is thoroughly flooded
  22. daveinSB
    I've been out of the model thread for a bit, what does CCKW stand for?
  23. daveinSB
    I actually don't mind the weather today and what's forecast for tomorrow, I enjoy interesting weather and the strong winds later today (potentially) and tomorrow's wind and convection interest me just as much as a severe heatwave. I also run extremely hot and suffer from hyperhidrosis on my face and head, so a bit of cool, rainy weather doesn't bother me as much.
  24. daveinSB
    Some of the heftiest convertive raindrops I've ever seen in London, W12
  25. daveinSB
    Cooler air has definitely made its way to W12
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