Nimbusman
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Posts posted by Nimbusman
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Decent period of snow now after heavy rain, temp falling away some big flakes but just not quite cold enough to settle. Nice to see though maybe for the last time until next winter
Edit… starting to settle now. Heaviest snow I’ve seen for 3 years
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Clear breaking up of the area of precipitation on the south eastern flank now, I assume there’s more dry air aloft and sea breezes are causing this?
Two clear areas one to the north looking quite lively whereas anything in the southern eastern ‘wedge’ is just being squeezed into submission
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Light snow here for the past 30 mins after a morning of a wintry mix falling from the sky. No real intensity and nothing settling, although the temp and dew have dropped away. The radar looks a right mess of marginality!
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Dew point falling away here ( down from 2.0°C to 0.1°C in two hours) as the arctic air digs in, as others have pointed out convection kicking off in many areas to the NW now so some may get surprise snow shower today…
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8 minutes ago, snowblind said:
Oh no! Now I'm just inside the northern limit of the warning. It's the hope that kills you.
This is classic ‘screw zone’ stuff
there’ll be a thin wedge of places that will see nothing from this. Looks like we’re right in the middle of it! Been here before many times, ideally we need a NNE flow for any decent snow showers in this part of the region, I think geographically we are in worse in place in the region for anything from the SW as it always agonisingly just grazes us! I hope we can get a 20 mile adjustment north but I’m not being too hopeful!
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No sleet let alone snow here and surprisingly very very calm without a breath of wind. Although expecting very little if anything from this cold snap as my location is too far NE for anything off the Atlantic and too far SE for anything from showers off the North Sea. Be interesting to see if those further south get settling snow from this. Might get a decent frost tonight though!
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Looking like the trough finally makes an impact this weekend although seems limited in terms of rainfall at this stage. Some warm days midweek to come first though.
Please could someone remind me what are regarding as the reliable short range rainfall models? I know this debate comes up every winter but off to Glastonbury this weekend and obviously wanted to keep a closer eye on things
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Thanks Paul and Jo! On a knife edge then. 12z operational goes for a trough again albeit more slack flow than 6z meaning a bit more slow moving areas of rain into Sunday particularly. Long way to go but on the up side the GFS control run suggesting the Azores High might have a bit more of an influence on this run with only a glancing blow from the low trundling down from the NW :
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Thanks for the update Jo and Paul.
Constantly changing picture but as it stands a dry start and set up on wednesdy but signs that a trough scenario is more likely now as much of the live music kicks off on Friday. The Azores high getting squeezed out west and that’s three runs on the spin now from GFS albeit slightly outliers each time. ECM also going for this too.
Interesting that Met and the BBC we’re quite bullish on the AH pushing in yesterday but tentatively watching each run now
@Jo Farrow how often will you be updatIng the forecast? It much appreciated by the way as there’s hundreds of people on another forum hanging on every run now!
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The pendulum will continue to swing back and forth for a while but normally in this scenario as @Radiating Dendrite mentioned past experience tells us we’re likely to end up with a middle ground solution, with the high still over us maybe orientated to the NW of the UK. Seasonal but no deep cold yet but let’s see how it pans out the next few days
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Light flurries here too, totally unexpected
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Nice satellite image Simon King has posted on his Twitter feed, shows the snowfall and areas that missed out really well
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Looks all over this morning for any extension to the cold spell as we head into next week now. Great that some places in the region got some last chance saloon snow last night - we caught one really heavy shower as way of send of here too.
Scores on the door for here:Snow: 9.5/10
Cold: 6.5/10 (may rate higher)
Duration: 8/10
Overall: 8.5/10 - due to the depth of snow.
Back to the MOD thread and the next hunt for cold beyond next week!
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Only a few flakes today and lots of thawing going on, doesn’t seem like as much convection occurring after the wind has turned more easterly. Been a great couple of days though and best snow for many years here! Didn’t get anywhere near ‘91 but still excellent. Lots of disappointed folk in the west and south of the region but there’s still time for more snow chances this winter.
A few more really cold nights to come but does look like a slow return to average next week (for now)...
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Snow been on and off here so far today with some sunshine. Light stuff but with big flakes mixed in but air temps just edged above freezing for a little while and some big icicles forming (haven’t seen these in years!) however temps have now dropped just back below again with cloud cover.
Dp still well below and radar looking decent with a band now getting its act together!
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Possibly the last measurement barring some major snowfall today (lots of sublimation going on here) not quite a foot but will go down as historic for here:
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1 minute ago, seaside 60 said:
Stupid question but how come the temp has gone up over freezing, I thought there were no mild sectors now.
Also I am not impressed with the temps they dont seem cold enough lol.The snow is still melting here from ground up esp near buidlings it seems that the ground is so so wet and no real cold to get dwn and freeze the ground.
By the way is it a record yet because it hasn't stopped snowing here since sun am, although it could snow like this for the whole month and we wouldn't get much laying.
Had another few cm’s over night here but got lots of melt here too, no dripping but seems like the thaw is from the ground up on concrete near the house. I’m assuming we have higher 850’s and would be interested to hear the science behind this?
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Snow really getting going again here, much bigger flakes. A12 streamer has set up all the way down to London
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Right on cue the convection is getting going now, could be some decent falls this afternoon and evening
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Had 21cm here in Ipswich, which makes that the highest total since 2010 (so far) so quite an event! The MO warnings were spot on for over here.
Light snow on and off for the past hour after a dry spell and some signs convection may be starting to kick off... last night it was quite explosive and rapid
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14 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:
Seems to be increasing in intensity now in Ipswich, very dry snow and wind is getting up, nice Sunday this!
Heavier band definitely heading west now
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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:
Really Lamping it down now
Right under the heavier streamer there Paul, all down the coasts looks like they are the sweet spot for the next few hours could be some big totals.
We’ve got moderate snow here and accumulating nicely I suspect the rest of the region will get in the action later today and tomorrow
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Properly coming down in Ipswich now, intensity just increased, wind whipping up and creating blizzard like conditions at times
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Didn’t realise this was the UKV until Tim mentioned it but here’s the latest. Lots of action for all the region:
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SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Nimbusman
Graupel quickly turned to snow here and intensified, readily settling. Not expecting a huge amount but lovely to see! Radar exploded the past hour or so