Nimbusman
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This is classic ‘screw zone’ stuff there’ll be a thin wedge of places that will see nothing from this. Looks like we’re right in the middle of it! Been here before many times, ideally we need a NNE flow for any decent snow showers in this part of the region, I think geographically we are in worse in place in the region for anything from the SW as it always agonisingly just grazes us! I hope we can get a 20 mile adjustment north but I’m not being too hopeful!
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No sleet let alone snow here and surprisingly very very calm without a breath of wind. Although expecting very little if anything from this cold snap as my location is too far NE for anything off the Atlantic and too far SE for anything from showers off the North Sea. Be interesting to see if those further south get settling snow from this. Might get a decent frost tonight though!
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Nimbusman replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking like the trough finally makes an impact this weekend although seems limited in terms of rainfall at this stage. Some warm days midweek to come first though. Please could someone remind me what are regarding as the reliable short range rainfall models? I know this debate comes up every winter but off to Glastonbury this weekend and obviously wanted to keep a closer eye on things -
glasto Glastonbury festival 2023
Nimbusman replied to deadstillstanding's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Thanks Paul and Jo! On a knife edge then. 12z operational goes for a trough again albeit more slack flow than 6z meaning a bit more slow moving areas of rain into Sunday particularly. Long way to go but on the up side the GFS control run suggesting the Azores High might have a bit more of an influence on this run with only a glancing blow from the low trundling down from the NW :- 129 replies
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glasto Glastonbury festival 2023
Nimbusman replied to deadstillstanding's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Thanks for the update Jo and Paul. ?? Constantly changing picture but as it stands a dry start and set up on wednesdy but signs that a trough scenario is more likely now as much of the live music kicks off on Friday. The Azores high getting squeezed out west and that’s three runs on the spin now from GFS albeit slightly outliers each time. ECM also going for this too. Interesting that Met and the BBC we’re quite bullish on the AH pushing in yesterday but tentatively watching each run now @Jo Farrow how often will you be updatIng the forecast? It much appreciated by the way as there’s hundreds of people on another forum hanging on every run now!- 129 replies
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The pendulum will continue to swing back and forth for a while but normally in this scenario as @Radiating Dendrite mentioned past experience tells us we’re likely to end up with a middle ground solution, with the high still over us maybe orientated to the NW of the UK. Seasonal but no deep cold yet but let’s see how it pans out the next few days
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Looks all over this morning for any extension to the cold spell as we head into next week now. Great that some places in the region got some last chance saloon snow last night - we caught one really heavy shower as way of send of here too. Scores on the door for here: Snow: 9.5/10 Cold: 6.5/10 (may rate higher) Duration: 8/10 Overall: 8.5/10 - due to the depth of snow. Back to the MOD thread and the next hunt for cold beyond next week!
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Only a few flakes today and lots of thawing going on, doesn’t seem like as much convection occurring after the wind has turned more easterly. Been a great couple of days though and best snow for many years here! Didn’t get anywhere near ‘91 but still excellent. Lots of disappointed folk in the west and south of the region but there’s still time for more snow chances this winter. A few more really cold nights to come but does look like a slow return to average next week (for now)...
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Snow been on and off here so far today with some sunshine. Light stuff but with big flakes mixed in but air temps just edged above freezing for a little while and some big icicles forming (haven’t seen these in years!) however temps have now dropped just back below again with cloud cover. Dp still well below and radar looking decent with a band now getting its act together!
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Had 21cm here in Ipswich, which makes that the highest total since 2010 (so far) so quite an event! The MO warnings were spot on for over here. Light snow on and off for the past hour after a dry spell and some signs convection may be starting to kick off... last night it was quite explosive and rapid
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Nimbusman replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Heavier band definitely heading west now -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Nimbusman replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
?? Right under the heavier streamer there Paul, all down the coasts looks like they are the sweet spot for the next few hours could be some big totals. We’ve got moderate snow here and accumulating nicely I suspect the rest of the region will get in the action later today and tomorrow -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Nimbusman replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Properly coming down in Ipswich now, intensity just increased, wind whipping up and creating blizzard like conditions at times ?? -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
Nimbusman replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Didn’t realise this was the UKV until Tim mentioned it but here’s the latest. Lots of action for all the region: IMG_4531.MP4