JOPRO

Moderate to heavy snow falling in Harlestone northants now! Settling fast temp 0.8C and falling. Better be around in the morning have bet the house on sledging with the kids tomorrow.

And so it begins..........!

Its been a IMBY winter by the sounds of it! Some have done very well other have had another stinker (so far), managed 8 days of lying snow and a low of -8 here in rural Northants so far, compared to 2 days during 16/17 winter 1/2 day 15/16, 2 Days 14/15 and 1/2 day 13/14. If that's it for this winter then so be it not been a bad one here, gutted for those who have missed out. However it is only 22 January, still plenty of time yet, give the models a few days as Mr Micawber says in Dickens ' Something will turn up....'

Anyone else think this is a great version of how the mood has gone on the Model thread over the last day........ECM being the one falling off the perch!!!!

Well, if we have learnt one thing from this it is that MOGREPS is just as fallible as the other tools we have available when it comes with forecasting a cold spell, wasn't it the other day the all members bar one were going for an easterly next week? I for one have been waiting for the last 3 winters for it to pick up a cold signal out in FI and run with it down to 0hrs. Despite this its performance of the last few winters has been very good, just a kick in the teeth when it has had a wobble its when its been showing a period of easterly flow! Anyway as have said before to tweak a quote from Hemmingway :- ‘There is no hunting like the hunting for snow, and those who have hunted snow long enough and liked it, never care for anything else thereafter’ Or is that just me?

We must be getting close to the December 1990 event now, from my childhood memories of that event snow depth is about the same! Guess that means we will have a Feburay 91 to follow!!! Lol

All I can say guys and gals is enjoy and ramp the hell out of it!!! After the past 3/4 winters of dross we have had, we have certainly earned it!! Lost count of how many times I would have a look at the mod thread in the morning to see knocker posting charts off blowtorch south westerlies and picture of daffodils and no hope in site.

Just up the road from you on top of the hill by the old garage at Harlestone visablity getting bad and it's blowing a gale, lovely stuff!!

December 1990 blizzard revisited? Can remember it well had my 7th Birthday when that lot hit, and we are off to my daughters 4th Birthday party later this morning! Talk about reliving your youth!!

ROLL ROLL UP, get your tickets for the great GFS backtrack! Gates open at 9.30pm. Standing room only!!!

Could end being a classic UK Nowcasting situation for snow, some get buried and some get flooded a couple of miles down the road !!

Told you so merchants out in force on the Mod thread this morning, BORE OFF!!!!!!

Couldn't agree more, if we have cold near by with have a chance, will take cold and dry if it's on offer. Anyway why should we take any notice of anything beyond 120-144 hrs as gospel? It's the weather it's subject to change! Also there's all that missing dater at the mo over the new year holiday.......!! Only kidding

Whose up for a sh*tty cold wet April and May, with a high stuck over Greenland or Scandinavia like a fly round sh*t, you just know it's coming!

Well the search for winter snow goes on, i think for us cold/snow lovers in here I would like to tweak a famous quote from Hemmingway ' "There is no hunting like the hunting for snow, and those who have hunted snow long enough and liked it, never care for anything else thereafter" Does this apply to any other winter model watchers in here is it just me?

No I agree money needs to be spent and time needs to be invested in it, but it's dammed hard to call for the uk as we are at the crossroads of so many players in global weather, the Atlantic, the jet stream, the Gulf Stream and tiny variances in these give us vastly different outcomes to our weather. It will come but still with all our advances in computing power we struggle beyond say 5 days. Will we see rock solid two week forecasts in our life time? My dear old grandmother passed away at the age of 93 in May and I used to love discussing with her how technolgie changed in her life time, so I see no reason why we can't improve forecasting models over the next 50 years!

What I meant was if you only go out to 144hrs you tend to do away with the 'garden path' situations we find oursleves in when looking at long range outputs for cold in winter or hot in summer.

That ecm upgrade was a waste of money! Still no better at calling uk cold spells!!. To be fair to the UKMO plays it safe by only going out to 144hrs. Hence it seems to have a better handle on events in out little part of the world. GFS and ECM do themselves no favours going out as far as they do as how often does a 240hr or 384hr chart Verify?

Well it wouldn't be a uk cold spell without some drama, let's hope for us coldies this is it and we get back on track for cold soon. Thanks for the replys ref the ukmo. Is the model corrected anyway to take into account the uk location and the lower chance on the more extreme outputs coming off? Also this is the first really test of the updated ECM with these situations we await 7.00pm to see if it's been a total waste of money or money well spent!

Can anyone explain why the UKMO is pants when it is out on its own showing a cold synopsis, but is the slayer of cold spells when it is on its own showing mild synopsis in the 96-120hr range. A genuine question not a toy throw ,would be interested to hear some on the more seasoned posters thoughts on this?

Xmas day weather summed up by my dad this morning 'discusstingly mild crap'

Only problem with my comment is the when part! Could be next week,month,2 months next winter but it will come! Just feels like we are paying for the good run of cold winters we had in 08/09 09/10 10/11 and 12/13. Think we would rather have had them rationed out every couple of years if we knew the current snow drought we are stuck in was coming. I did manage a day or so of lying snow last winter which on the face of it was a major snow event in the context of that winter!

All I can say is when we get the next cold spell hit then I intend to ramp the f**k out of it after these last coulple of winters! Any other coldies feel like me? It will come just a matter of when not if.

Well looks like sunspot numbers are tanking again, are we any closer to understanding the effect (if any?) they have on global weather and also do any models factor this in?

Well first time back on here for 3 weeks been abroad and had little Internet access, first hint I had things have gone wrong for cold was when I got on the plane for my flight home and the pilot told us the temp for London, then I came on here and went through the forum for a catch up this morning. All I can say is what a sack of sh*t the output is for cold copared to when I left! How has it come to this! So I have done what I did the last couple of winters hit the ignore button for certain posters and stick my head in the sand an latch on to any remote hope of cold! If your a cold whether fan in winter like me it's the best way forward! If nothing else works a total pig headed unwillingness to looks facts in the face will see us through!,