Daniel*

Well major SSW looking increasingly inevitable some GEFS runs dropping it to -20m/s which is impressive and benchmark of a very powerful event. It could be possible we see most significant SSW since February 2018 event but for the moment a split is not clear, it’s hard to see the vortex truly recovering into spring. I think the spring could be eventful this year just a feeling.

On global scale yes but most of “North Atlantic” is not especially relevant to NW Europe at higher latitudes. Vast majority of that anomaly is coming from lower latitudes. Waters to our north, east and west are not unusually warm therefore the idea all wind flows are excessively mild is false. It’s southwest flows which are very mild and even milder.

Hardly inspiring GEFS but another GFS op on top end from start to finish today. Well there is some good agreement at d10 between ECM and GFS ens perhaps chilly rather than cold at the moment but something to work with heights quite strongly signalled to NE. And a gentle continental flow. I haven’t had a frost in a while. Deeper into FI things become more possible with retrogression signal near Greenland EPS been quite persistent with that opens up more possibilities for deeper cold to be introduced. Overall not a terrible direction of travel but it’s not a fast path to glory, an opportunity for regular night frost to cool the ground, dry with sunny spells offering good useable weather. Then we should be more primed for something of more significance… later than we’d like but beggars can’t be choosers.

Well it’s wrong to call it “North Atlantic” when it goes down to latitudes of equator. That is not the North Atlantic it’s all being tangled into one.

Unsure about that the North Atlantic is actually pretty close to 1991-2020 average right now, it was freakishly warm last year. So I wouldn’t expect westerly winds to be much milder. Much above average SSTs are seen in subtropical Atlantic off Iberian peninsula and down to NW Africa, more southerly maritime flows are exceptionally mild. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5032262

Unsure about that the North Atlantic is actually pretty close to 1991-2020 average right now, it was freakishly warm last year. So I wouldn’t expect westerly winds to be much milder. Much above average SSTs are seen in subtropical Atlantic off Iberian peninsula and down to NW Africa, more southerly maritime flows are exceptionally mild.

Not true..

The refusal of low to ease or drop south is quite something 72hrs > 120hrs, it even goes north it almost appears to go against the laws of physics with rising pressure to northeast. Some of most frustrating output I’ve ever seen.

We really should be seeing better here, at day 3, polar jet deflected well south and yet lows are meandering around our vicinity, sums up our luck this winter though - totally nonexistent.

Little consistency today the earlier GFS runs veered the flow from continent. Faith in NWP reaches rock bottom...

Something not right there with snow line near London uppers are positive.

GFS back with E’ly and height rises to NE into early next week, UK cold pool developing still possible in mid February. The NWP is having a nightmare.

The affected areas of NW Scotland were under 6-8C 850hPa temps which were far from record levels, they were much warmer further SE winds were coming up from tropical Atlantic, record warm SSTs it’s likely this played a major role and very strong winds were observed allowing for significant foehn warming.

Robust signal for retrogression to Greenland we want to see it get closer though.. the winter is over posts do not stack up with highly amplified northern blocking guidance like this. NAO/AO the AO is trending significantly -ve

Temperature anomalies from the latest GloSea forecasts for the week commencing 12 February. It shows cold air over the UK and deep cold residing over Scandinavia. GloSea is the seasonal prediction system developed and run operationally at the Met Office. This is from the Met Office blog: “ Through to early March, there is increasing chance of sleet or snow, especially in the north and east of the UK with greater than normal potential for disruptive snow. The specific locations wintry hazards will become clearer as the lead time decreases.” Official blog of the Met Office news team BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Some of you folks confuse me the EPS strengthens the cold signal growing optimism of colder E’ly flows into next week. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5030193

A low res algorithm? Expect an embarrassing comedown within next 24 hours IMO.

I’m sorry but not a chance GFS is correct. Not a single EC ens does what it does.

Some of you folks confuse me the EPS strengthens the cold signal growing optimism of colder E’ly flows into next week.

EPS goes very strongly with extensive high lat blocking further into February something is brewing here.

UKMO looks snowy at face value but lack of cold air is concern.

All looking swell from the fundamentals did anyone see EC control? It must have been quite the spectacle AO nosedives off the map. No doubt major SSW from that. A cold March surely doesn’t have an insignificant probability this year.

People follow output too black and white the situation is fluid and finely poised looking at EPS there does seem to be appetite for NAO to go more negative mid month onwards and so colder weather has potential to lock in. Quite possible we could be looking at a cold February the coldest since 2018, albeit with a very mild beginning the possibility is there and I don’t think tiny. El Niño winters are more backloaded on average.

The trend is our friend at the moment number of colder runs increasing. 12z eps yesterday and today for Birmingham.

This is really tough the month will begin exceptionally mild but I can see some cold weather perhaps most persistent of winter. I’ll go with 3.9C and 65mm thanks.