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Daniel*

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Everything posted by Daniel*

  1. Daniel*
    I don't agree, assuming Feb finished now it would be 1.6C above the record warmest (1990) at Heathrow. December 2015... practically 3C above second warmest 2023 closely followed by 1974. That was a level up I'd say while this month is still exceptional.
  2. Daniel*
    Simple. Those are continental climates, different climate to ours much less maritime influenced. What are you expecting?
  3. Daniel*
    Yes my mistake but fact remains it’s exceptional for relatively dry London.
  4. Daniel*
    Awful
  5. Daniel*
    30C in March? That’s hilarious we haven’t even had 30C in May in 19 years in London (2005).
  6. Daniel*
    Of course EPS experienced a massive bust but similarly to latest GFS run interest in -NAO in early March.
  7. Daniel*
    The man has spoken…
  8. Daniel*
    No. Slacker winds are in forecast later this week if anything if clear skies… temps are likely to be comfortably subzero. We all know all models are poor with nocturnal cooling especially GFS,
  9. Daniel*
    Mate that’s exactly what you’re doing going by GFS op. The ultimate cherry pick. There is consensus amongst EC and GEFS for a generally unsettled cool ish westerly flow into early March. Models do a better job with these more normal patterns.
  10. Daniel*
    It was at very top end of ensemble vast majority are maintaining the cooler and more unsettled weather into early March.
  11. Daniel*
    That’s clearly not based on ECM 00z E.g. Birmingham 23rd 6C 24th 4C 25th 2.5C 26th 4.5C 27th 2C
  12. Daniel*
    For all said about background signals ultimately this winter have experienced a strong El Niño… the most hostile ENSO for cold weather. Since 1950 there has been only 4 such winters…1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 none of these were cold, often very mild. In midst of already higher global temperatures, it cannot be startling to see why we have struggled and southern air streams have been powerful with record warm SSTs. Next winter it’s very likely we will see La Niña conditions so hopefully a fresh slate…
  13. Daniel*
    Well seasonal models did say backloaded winter?
  14. Daniel*
    I’ll have to correct you 7C maxes is not average in London at end of February the lowest average max is 8.4C in January. The normal in late Feb is 10C. It’s below average evidently if it was January, it would be a bit colder say 5C.
  15. Daniel*
    Never said anything about settling….
  16. Daniel*
    More of your classical cold zonal further on pub run, snow would be able to fall at lower levels.
  17. Daniel*
    The cooler and cyclonic weather is here to stay according to EPS with heights remaining withdrawn from Europe in Atlantic Ocean. I’d expect the modelling to perform much better with these more zonal patterns.
  18. Daniel*
    T168 looks rather slidey there, it can still be possible to see a snow event from an unremarkable cold set up. Low heights/thicknesses help.
  19. Daniel*
    One thing for sure it’s going to feel markedly colder after all this much milder weather. The skiers in Scotland will be delighted by outlook.
  20. Daniel*
    What person is looking for plume set ups in March? I think that’s odd given the climatology.
  21. Daniel*
    Expecting the same thing again and again will only get you so far. An early final warming is gaining likelihood in early March, it doesn't bode well for a warm or settled March. Of course in spring the frequency of northerly and easterly winds are at their greatest.
  22. Daniel*
    2018 of course for the novelty factor I'm not looking for warm weather in March. Plenty of time for that.
  23. Daniel*
    Are they? Most trees are totally bare no buds. Still very much a winter scene. Pic I took yesterday.
  24. Daniel*
    Unbelievable wrt AO… I’ve never seen such a huge model bust for polar blocking in mid/late Feb, something that had total cross model agreement only a matter of days ago. A week ago!
  25. Daniel*
    Deary me…
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