Daniel*

I’d exercise caution I have noticed UKV sometimes gets carried away, general models supporting 9-10C 850hPa temps further SE not exceptional. I can’t see 30C being a possibility with the air mass, typically minimum for 30C it needs to be 12C, I recall in summer 2018 this was enough at times, but there were drought conditions, soils were very dry and of course we were not as early in year. Not just locally but what makes is even more unlikely to our near south, France also has very saturated soils, which is not usual for the time of year. I’d say we probably will be limited to 27-28C which of course is still very warm.

Not sure there’s much ensemble support remains unchanged really from yesterday but of course further SE even average later in May is quite warm.

Quite sure we had that feature in recent weeks and all it did was slow weather fronts over us. Things are trending more unsettled… week for 13-20th unsettled especially further south… the pattern that just keeps recurring.

Dreadful BH monday here in London improving from tomorrow sadly this weather will not last good agreement for Atlantic westerlies to return next week, second half of May looking iffy at this stage. Notice the -NAO is creeping in more I think the SSW is still having an influence.

Is that so? 10mm here in SE London… heavy pulses mixed in this rain.

Sometimes there’s too much focus on anomalies look at actual raw temps the waters surrounding us are as cool as they were in December although I do take it they will be rising not falling. The North Sea is still pretty cold as yet there has been not been a dramatic warming, it’s still relatively early in year. Any winds from north, NE especially would be cool probably for sometime yet for east.

Exaggerative.

What a bust!

London direct hit! Best May thunderstorms since 2018 although not on that level, at height was flashing about every 10 seconds, surprising amount of thunder too perhaps it wasn’t entirely elevated. Very heavy rain too. I can’t say I recall seeing a thunderstorm Thames streamer before - certainly a novel event.

12.8c and 60mm thanks difficult one, seeing potential for something colder mid month which could make a good dent but unsure about extent and longevity.

Well actually GFS was initially more the odd one and it proved right. There was decent representation for a warmer/settled long weekend outcome in EPS, it wasn’t just coming from det. It has gone from this to this for Saturday

ECM used to be quite convincingly best performing model unsure it is anymore.. From this to that quite shocking , still optimism for a noticeable improvement next week but it’s never easy.

Heathrow temp/rainfall data from January 1948 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt sunshine began being recorded in January 1957 with Campbell Stokes recorder was used until October 2005 where it was changed to automatic Kipp & Zonen sensor.

I did some calculations..

Third wettest day of year here 17mm still raining. A really miserable spring so far and we thought 2023 was bad.