Daniel*

Not a whole lot different at 120 although more blocked over the pole.

GFS on the happy juice clearly, up to old tricks by blowing things out of proportion.

UKMO is fairly good once we lose those euro heights to south a cold northerly would be inbound for the British Isles, need more amplification in N Atlantic for it to sustain, however UKMO only takes us to day 6.

Engaging output from ECM this morning with a low diving/sliding into Southern Europe - propping up +ve heights to the NW thereby leading to the floodgates being opened potentially from the E. I'm surprised it is not more busy in here. A definite cooling down to seasonal to below average values from next week seems to be illustrated by the models.

RIP Euro slug always a good foretelling for cold prospects in the UK to see heights drop to the S/SE. PV is looking distressed like a beached whale on Eurasia side, its nasty days are over.

Quite a decent HLB in the polar region a product of the displacement, with the purple monster elsewhere...would be interesting if it approached Greenland following the path of least resistance? I think it would...an encouraging northern hemispheric profile IMO. I'd say looking further afield using my crystal ball, there is a chance currently a very remote one of a cross polar high reminds one of the model output we've seen not so long ago, which did not materialise, that would be fun - I think the tables are turning, perhaps earlier than we envisaged. Instead of putting the focus on mid Feb onwards I do not think it is wise to cast aside the first half of the month, we're seeing these variables which the likes of GP ect discuss starting to be absorbed by the models imho. I could be completely wrong but I have a inner feeling deep down winter's on the way how scientific.

The rain has started here, a lot more to come unfortunately.

Nice to see -10*C isotherm touching the far far north on the last frame. Based on this run, the cold would not last that long before being bowled out....the messy stuff to SW (corrected) of Greenland hampering WAA getting toward Greenland thus ridge topples over, potential for something more sustained going on from a northerly quadrant quite a potent one as well, interest for coldies. Baby steps

Honestly there are multiple folk in here who are more reliable/provide a superior assessment looking ahead his use of CFS does not give him much credence he is a bit like a yo-yo. I fail to see why he looks for possible breakdowns after all, we have not even reached point A. People show know better, things can change rather suddenly. With warming underway volatile times up above and signs of MJO going to a more amplified phase, this will take some time to filter into the models, the winter's over posts are a lot of drivel putting it politely.

Everything really is bigger in the states.

PM blasts are not satisfactory, as we commence into the last week of January all is not lost.

Order your pizzas & your Chinese food!

WOW generational type stuff. Something like this will not be seen in a while I bet!

Since 2013 combined snow totals in winter 13/14, 14/15, 15/16 (leeway here). I've barely had an inch or two that is unsettling, yet those yanks have probably seen in one single event more than what I've seen cumulatively in over a decade sorry state of affairs, exceptionally mild again currently registering at 15C, overcast & damp as well! I must say the past 3 winters have been appaling three's a crowd!

This would be a disaster for parts of Scotland I do not use that language often, a different league to Braer Storm...extremely sharp gradient, unfortunately it may well happen with PV wanting to trundle nearby, energising these storms.

Near whiteout conditions in DC -

NYC is getting very badly hit by all accounts.

Blimey that was a quick reply, ahh well Spring is looking like a late one. Sucks for some.

Seek help Scott, it's not too late to fix your wrongdoings.

Repulsive putting it lightly... Well here's your torpedo, I must say I like these red colours

A little patience is needed, some silly posts creeping in. February is ripe for the taking. I'm no strat expert but the chart below shows a significant warming on Eurasia side off the scale in fact! They do not come often At 10hPa level on latest GFS, it would reshuffle the deck' imo.

I hate the British climate it is utterly mundane.. Being out and about it feels like a winter heatwave after those cold temperatures I'm afraid it is going to get worse before it gets better quite dispiriting. Great photo @kentcloud Not checked but I think it reached 12C here back to December shenanigans

Tentative signs of that mid Atlantic ridge, with jet stream seemingly wanting to take a more meridional flow 12z was as flat as a pancake, interesting let us hope this trend builds.