supernova

JMA it is then. Very alright with that. EDIT: Shudda gone to Specavers. That'll teach me to jump to conclusions. Apologies. It's obviously inverted.

Not the ECM 168 we wanted to see but I’m not convinced by it either. Odd evolution. Tomorrow may shed more light but not quite ready to chuck the towel in yet.

Agreed. DL’s original point well made. Good point on the other side from DPower too, that not only may the downwelling be slower but also weaker than anticipated. Both likely, I think.

Eh? Looks further west to me but I’ll wait to be sure before posting definitively (!).

That's not something you get to say very often about a run like that! Exciting times.

GFS Para happy to join the ice party. Interest throughout the run but hard not to share this little beauty, even though it's far into FI.

Sorry Feb I misread those anomalies. Good spot from you and @karlos1983. Yes, of course, average would be fine if the cold finally prevails. And though not comparing winters, we do love a NE flow on the east coast (unforecast Polar Low came bounding in 2010 and buried us)! Here's hoping. Anyway, much to cheer within the ECM outlook tonight - let's hoping the Euro's have the edge currently.

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Fixed that spelling for you @northwestsnow Honestly GFS is on one this week. Not that any of us have a crystal ball but seriously the swings from run to run make even the Brexit negotiations look stable. Let’s see what rhe Para has to offer...little change up to 96... potentially slightly less progressive?

GFS Para FV3 better wedge alignment and heights up to Iceland compared to 18z GFS at 144 onwards although @Mucka‘s point about the slider well made. Then by next Friday, Para advecting continental cold Eastwards whilst GFS has us in significantly warmer uppers (although unsure quite how cold the Para gets as it’s stalled on Meteociel again).

Hard to find much cheer for coldies in the models tonight, as evidenced by the downcast tone in so many of today's posts. As Ventrice pointed out earlier today, we're talking a different gravy to the SSW in Feb. Matt Hugo also quick to reference widespread surprise at lack of amplitude compared to predictions. Thank goodness we have the potential effects of an ongoing SSW to provide a sliver of hope for late Jan onwards. Might come to nothing, of course, but imagine the mood in here if we didn't even have that? So it seems forecasting the UK's weather is, ultimately, pretty straight forward...whatever you think might happen, or most want to happen, is almost certainly not going to occur in the way anybody expects! Models might be better than they were, but the glimmer of light they shine into the future remains dimmed by nature's dominant unpredictability. Another reason to hope we might see some of the white stuff before winter's done with us, perhaps.

Don't think these have been posted yet today. ECM Op 850's sitting on or above the mean initially then tracking toward the colder end of the suite after Jan 8th. Be interesting to see whether tonight's ensemble trend colder still as indicated by GFS/ICON so far today. Cool, cold, or winter proper? Still much to be decided I feel.

Return of the Bling. Finally, a chart that isn't grey. Here's hoping. HNY all.

This thread really has been weather knowledge gold this year. Appreciative of all contrbutors who’ve made it fun to follow, especially in light of the apparent “slow burner” looming as regards the Trop response. Cheers all, HNY.

Certainly an expected westwards correction being shown in the pub run, not quite sure it will be enough to lighten the mood just yet. Time enough, however, before the SSW delivers a noticeable response, quick or not. Still think we are at least 48 hours and more likely 72 hours away from seeing charts with a cheerier outlook for us coldies.

This might help a bit Feb. Admittedly only one (Op) run in deep FI but it does at least show the potential as we enter the New Year and the trop begins to respond to the SSW. Let's hope GFS has finally started to smell the Christmas coffee - certainly a classic Northerly evolution as you follow the suite beyond the initial high. Be interesting to see if other models follow over the next few days. Edit: Guilty of simultaneous posting but point still valid I think. Beyond the dross, there is hope, is my summary.

Interesting observation Mike. Seems there’s speculation GFS is inaccurately forecasting and/or missing essential obs re the Ural high. Interesting paper supporting your point re early predictability of major SSW’s here, highlighting subsequent importance of Ural blocking accuracy (if I’ve interpreted correctly). Thx to Dr Butler for sharing (Twitter). ://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081091?af=R&

I wonder if we're about to see some backtracking? Let's hope not.

*Pops in for new season Hunt for Cold. Pops out again.* GFS Op a warm outlier post day five (London GEFS posted earlier) but today's predicted synoptics still mighty interesting compared to the dross we're normally trying to shake the upsides from - albeit not as evocative as some of yesterday's eye candy. Good to be back, despite some of the naysayers already posting! Blocky and coldish? I'd say.

Top banana MWB, thanks everso Also explains HIRLAM's interest in building accumulation more intensely than previous runs.

Surprisingly quiet in here all things considered. No doubt everyone's heading to the regionals. Meanwhile, can any of our more experienced members help me understand the potential consequences of a convergence zone being as we seeing them drawn on UKMO faxes over the next couple of days? Two air flows converging in the same area? Constant showers? Couldn't find a useful explanation anywhere.

Seem to remember UKMO managed to scare us a few times by overblowing the high in the run up to Beast 1. Time for corrections/upgrades next few days. GFS meanwhile looks awful. Case in point, GFS has moved the high slightly further north in the latest run. 06 vs 12z.

-6 and a fresh covering from late last night as we got caught in a streamer for quite a few hours after dark. Snow day for the kids finally, so we’re off sledging. Needless to say they're thrilled ?

The Beast finally showed up this morning, lots of heavy showers and long may it continue. -4 here currently, between 2" & 3" in total. Not quite 2010 but good fun nonetheless!

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