wiltshire weather

I'm still hoping to at least get a few flakes this afternoon so I can say we've had 4 consecutive weekends with falling snow! Either way I would say that this winter has felt a bit more 'wintry like' than recent ones, so I'm ok with that. I've enjoyed this cold spell even without a decent snow event. If I can't have cold and snow in winter then cold, dry and frosty is the next best thing for me! I'm pretty sure the models are all going to be showing the same sort of evolution over the next few days with high pressure centred somewhere to the south east of us with temperatures above average, during the day at least. However, looking at the current NOAAA 500MB anomaly charts for the 6-14 day period, I think there is a possibility the high pressure will be centred further north, maybe even right over us. With the latest Meto update it will be interesting to see if the NOAA charts change to reflect this over the next few days or if they will continue to hold firm, in which case I would expect the operational models to start changing their outlook early next week. Edit: How the GFS12z evolves after next weekend up until the Thurs at least is what I was expecting to see based on the NOAA charts.

Still nothing this far east but I live in hope! Met office have updated their long range outlook and pretty much have removed talk of cold until beginning of March, and even that has been toned down from before! Just a small chance for cold returning next weekend still so I'll hold on to that Thursday 18 Feb - Saturday 27 Feb This period begins with temperatures much milder than recent, with temperatures returning to around or slightly above average for most, with some mild spells being seen in the south and west. There remains a small chance to return to wider colder conditions for the weekend, but the likelihood is low. The UK looks to be split broadly northwest to southeast in terms of the general weather types with the west and northwest more likely to see wet conditions with strong winds at times, and the east and south east more likely to remain drier, fine, and settled. Under these settled conditions we may see temperatures falling back to average or below, and with increased incidence of overnight frost and fog. Any snowfall most likely becoming restricted to the Scottish mountains. Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sat 13 Feb 2021 Saturday 27 Feb - Saturday 13 Mar Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with likely drier and more settled conditions prevailing. Temperatures likely to return back to around, if not below, average with a greater chance of cold spells during this time, bringing an increased threat of widespread frost and a very uncertain chance of snow. Towards mid-March there are signs of returning to a more unsettled period, with milder interludes more likely once more. Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sat 13 Feb 2021

I hope everyone gets to see some snow falling today so good luck all. The front already seems to have made it further east than predicted at this time so maybe that's a sign it's going to make it over to us in the east. Keeping fingers crossed

What I have been trying out (just to aid my understanding) is to take NOAA 500MB Height Chart for a period such as this one for the 17-21 Feb issued yesterday: then I look through the 500MB hPA Wind charts on WZ for instance to find one in that period that seems to match it as near as poss such as this one for the 19th Feb: Then I look to see what the 500MB Geop Height chart looks like for the same timeframe: Gives a good idea of what it could look like at the surface. All very subjective of course as there are several patterns that could fit the NOAA chart through that period with much different surface conditions! Now checking the NOAA 8-14 day chart: A fairly similar 500hPA Wind chart for the 23rd: And 500hPa Height chart for the 23rd: If (and it's a big IF) those are correct then you could surmise that the GFS is developing the right pattern currently. I have no idea if this is a valid way to interpret the various charts but will be fun to keep track of it to see how successful it is

I'm not sure if its WXCharts or the ECM model output that's at fault tbh !

As I mentioned above, ECM is also joining the 'party' Animation for Saturday, looks like Ireland and Wales are the places to be!!

Just to add some other short range models for Sat afternoon: Hirlam (doesnt show precip type): Harmonie: Also Navgem and JMA have similar themes.

Looks like GEM/ECM/ICON also have at least some snow getting across our region on Saturday so I would say there is growing support for this, although amounts will probably not come to much and I doubt any of it will reach the eastern areas unfortunately.

Will be interesting to see what the models are predicting in the morning, perhaps more of them will follow the Icon, you never know! This one could come down to radar watching on the day as anything is possible in this setup..

I've often cursed my luck over the last 50 or so years in these situations. Either too far East or too far West depending which way the show is coming from

I'm ever the eternal optimist when it comes to snow chances, but even I am now thinking that Saturday may well be our last shot at anything more than a dusting with the GFS//, Icon and Arpege all having some snow a fair way across our region, although it may not actually reach me in the far north east! Latest runs for 1300 Saturday: GFS// Arpege: Icon: GEM gives Devon and Cornwall a decent snow event on Saturday but it doesn't make it across the whole region: Worth a mention that the GEM actually gives us all a semi-decent snow to rain event on Sunday: After that, a return to milder temperatures and spells of rain for a few days and then hopefully high pressure building back in from the east towards the end of the week settling it down. Still a lot of uncertainty in that and also if it happens, will it set up far enough north to start drawing in colder air again. Meto update suggests that it will. The GEM(very mild) and ECM(colder) are good examples of the two ends of the scale when it comes to how that could work out. So, onto the next cold chase on the models

Great to see some more have woken up to a covering this morning There's nothing on the radar but after a sunny start and low of -5.9c overnight it's clouded over and I have a few flakes drifting down. So that makes falling snow 4 days in a row I think for me which I'm happy with even though we haven't had much more than a thick dusting on the ground.

No big snow event on the ECM, this is the best it has to offer which comes in on Saturday. The writing is def on the wall for an end to the cold spell, but whether it goes out with a bang or a whimper is still not completely set in stone yet. I'm still not convinced of the model output for next week either so am sitting firmly on the fence (sorry, but is the only emoji I could find for 'fence'!)

That's an insane GFS // run! Just goes to show what could happen if the Scandi high never loses it's grip. Entirely within the realms of possibility but so far of course out on its own! I think this is the one to pray to the weather gods for to come true

Will be absolutely fantastic to get that but just one day to enjoy it as by Sunday we have this: