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Everything posted by Chris101

  1. All eyes on the green line, needs a kick up to see ECM respond i think.
  2. Whats clearly coming into view is the mjo push, now will it be enough push, i'm not sure who has performed better on levels of amplification this year, but we need the gfs to be more in line with its slightly better mjocast. A big eye on what the heights are coming up against now aswell, lots of clutter to the North right now bringing it to a halt.
  3. It doesn't look too bad, even though the cold is flowing into Eastern Europe it looks to get cut off in an ok position for a fairly good feed.
  4. At my age I've seen it on numerous occasions, warm to freeze. Like a few have said it's the small difference between wrong side and right side, again in my years of models imo I would rather see crap synoptic for cold at long range slowly nudge towards something in better favour than the continuous glory charts slimming down to a sudden fail. When people say look for trends in the models, it's hard to see it but that is a trend and not for good, so again the best hope is for something to buck that trend. So as it goes will we get from warm to cold or not enough push and stay mild, I use the word push because just at the right moment the mjo push begins to show. Now we really begin to have hope.
  5. Still stands, maybe more 168ish Looking at the 6z gfs the euro high is doing what we looked for the Siberian high to do a few weeks back. Inadvertently the Euro high could do the job better imo when heights build west. Unseasonable warmth to cold??
  6. So here we stand, models showing nothing favourable, anomalies rubbish, ensembles with no promise. Given the performances this winter I'm surprised more aren't shouting game on, this is probably the best chance yet of seeing a big flip to cold I'll go for a punt, 144/168 on the 12th/13th
  7. Sounds like it was a rumour and all got out ok. Looking at posts after.
  8. A slight dusting In West Ipswich from a couple of early morning showers. Some absolutely stunning photos and reports from the South of the region. What an amazing 24 hours of weather, that's what the model watching is all about, getting something to the top of the ladder and then getting to see it unfold in real time, and yes I say that with just a mere dusting.
  9. Not very happy with the sudden spamming that keeps happening using page buttons, my phone goes blocking crazy when it happens. Is this something NW knows about?
  10. Never mind the Estuary, the North Sea lake effect is really pumping up off the Netherlands.
  11. The secret is not to let it depress you, if i get nothing and the rest of them South of me get buried then good on em, thats just the way it was meant to be, if it really feels that bad then maybe meteorology might not be for you.
  12. Looking at radar and sat imagery it is clear to me why this front has caused so many headaches, the shear on it makes it look like it could start rotating at numerous positions along it, therefore moving the pivot to a different position.
  13. At a complete guess, moisture field off the top Netherlands/Germany curling down onto EA coast?
  14. I'll give him his dues he's bloody good, excellent to have you in here KW, but it might be an idea to work out where your nearest defib is.
  15. Still cold here, snow hanging well in the shade, snow pole needs some real action
  16. Shes gonna have a little clear of the throat, ready for a big song soon
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