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tight isobar

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Everything posted by tight isobar

  1. Quite so. And i would usualy decipher the -spag plots in a winter organise.. However they are playing a good/medium decipher prog. So i'll be sticking some into the mid-long range atm... As the overal evo looks ...at least consistant! The consist to some will be wtf!!. Its a mass combo-of a little ens..in with ops sets-in with set divulgs etc- upper airs-probable jet align-supports of a particular member/mod...
  2. Taking all into account... Then the ukmo is a high percentage outcome leaning forwards. The ensembles notch a stark rise later week into weekend..then converge into a confused state...as they have previously at a crossroads of transition. The overall precip/heat notch also allude to this scenario 'somewhat'! Adding fuel to the fire is once again surface conditions flagging a rise/-or continuation of above av-conditions...(especialy midlands-south) Pressure is also a very feasible out-via ukmo raw...and points towards a perhaps more clear upper pattern allowing more sunshine=a spike in temps..especialy locally in favoured spots.. All in all id expect a gradual, note via ens and ops- to come into line with a similar outlook/placements as early as today. With a well noted upping especialy via supports/ens. . The heat being turned back on day by day going forwards...and some notable temps look nailed on.
  3. In an-average summer (not that this is!) Some would likely be raving about set ens-set up-. Especialy as we migrate a little further into the new month of august! They remain firm and notable to pressure rises going forwards...and with the 'already' mass in place iberian/southeastern euro warm/hot pool firmly in-place the possibilities of aligned placements for a uk tap in remain firmly on the table. Surface cond's also stark in there note of remaing above/well above going forwards. Its a the moment as if the models(bar gem) are desperate to resort to default..and with the slight expance of atlantic cooling thats is going to happen as complexities are deciphered!. Im still of the opinion that august will have at least blasts of hot iberian/continental surge. And again with some eye catching temps. And it will certainly be an, interesting watch...seeing how cross model suites unfold ...especialy once the weekend closes. Edit; taking all onboard id expect the mods to slowly begin to make less of the atlantic influence-and more of dominance via a southerly traction of weather into NWeuro as a whole...including the uk.
  4. After the weekends(still not fully deciphered antics).... The theme remains...the heat burner getting fully switched back on!!. Some real heat encrouching... And it has clear and stable eyes at inroads uk destination. With the jet compliance for this evolution also... If ya can't stand the heat...get out of the uk kitchen...into august!!!!
  5. Yes-everything on the up. And along with notable surface cond's into August... The blip becoming clearly just that.....
  6. Discounting-850s for a moment and viewing the overall evolution. Its screaming pressure slits- and by its nearly conclusion...again the heat trap is on...with a primmed aim and target at our shores. Ridging is constantly pointing at a one way road...as the atlantic Want of injection.....yet again fails to materialise!! Its all glory this season 4- constant ridge/hp elevation... The gods are trying but have'nt the strength to twist the heat syphon to negative!!!
  7. I hate to use this term.....however a 'halfwayhouse via gfs/ecm regards weekends confuse..is likely. And if it is a turn to notable heat you- require the point tip greenland is the thing you want to see..via (850s).. The ecm will very likely note this as the run completes... Via iberian/african tap in..
  8. On a more earmarked note; against the grain of hyping things in the winter..the opposite jumps in here. On a global frontal -its notable to see that even the jet dipping and diving on a raw scale...will oddly on this occasion 'very likey' aid convection of heat into the uk...the heat ball is such of that ..'that' even the given profile(jet) into August would usually mean typical summer fayre..however on what is a unusual scenario/scenario's..the given hit is a liable for big heat infusion!! The iberian-and' continental heat fuse just add fuel to the fire...(pun intended).. And the equitorial mass of hp-dominance..and that of want to make'constant' inroads to deep northern hem-lattitudes..is going to be one demon to breakdown. The notion of it being any hotter than of late..with the persistance seems crazy.... However...it clearly is'nt!!!!
  9. We need to keep an, eye on dynamics for the weekend phase-due to mass complexities. On the note of latter prognosis the one snapshot ..i think sums up... Blip>then heat...and like a broken record..its very feasible that summer has the most notable yet in store!!
  10. Im inclined to agree... GLTW August for me the real heat month!!!
  11. Gfs 6z making a little less drama of the iclandic low of deepening the trough.. Also of note is the more organised scandinavian large HP spread...all in all a quicker route back to notable heat influence... We'll see how it develops?!!
  12. Ecm.. Just wants the heat 'quickly' back to our shores!!!
  13. Yes via gfs 12z..although ecm -running now has a different take...at least on the raw. Im still inclined to think the any dramatic climbdown maybe breif... And the impending-AT trough is playing a little havoc at present. At 168hrs its not hard to see the squeeze on the trough..with ridging keen to quickly make a shot at inroads back towards us... all this while southern most are still into the heat zone...
  14. Yes the longer ens again showing a breif/very breif cool down although temps still into mid -high 20's. Then as b4 a stark rise into early August.. With temps perhaps off the scale!!!! #crazy
  15. Well 6z continues its want for heat burst.. And oddly things could get more intresting going forwards with regards trough format and where we sit on the side of the heat syphon. Increadable stuff!!! 1-things for sure summer is'nt going anywhere and records continue to be at a major threat. We will see where again we sit withinthe ens....and todays further suites 'overall'....
  16. Clear signs emerging(relflecting the ens)..of the ridge punching back...mixing out the trough... With the jet gaining a more northwards amp-any blip looking more and more short lived...that maybe so-even further northwards as we gain....
  17. B4-6z runs..the theme continues. A minimal 'perhaps blip, otherwise its in the oven-and with the likelyhood of the gas mark being further tweaked. Some eye waterring candidates flagging. The london ens are hot/very hot...perhaps getting hotter!!! Surface conditions staying hot throughout especialy southern most parts.....news making weather beholds!!°
  18. A notable breakdown to cool and wet weather.... C, mon- the ens really do not get any better ... The mean and members jumping the line... Some outragious heat in a few. Once again....things look to be heading to the hottest part of summer thus far.
  19. If its trending, then the ens are a good start for viewing. Anyone looking/wanting both-a fairly quick breakdown/or-no possible upspike in temps will be dissapointed! A terrific set going forwards via 00z suite... Some very notable heat building...even in compare to what we are now already used too..!!! Short term surface temps (-24th)..also of note. Certainly could'nt argue that the hottest chapter of an-already increadable season will very soon be upon ourselves.. Increadable stuff !!! Todays sets/suites will be very telling.
  20. Ecm continues to make a-more evaporative' trough sequence and the chase of heat progression really building... Not to forget the non-short supply of ridging behind the forementioned...awaiting perhaps the merge of the by then mass upper ridging spilling ever northward well into the uk....and likely beyond... Given there are dynamics away from mentioned...but to both maintain the wave...and perhaps intensify it...all the signals are there!!!!! For a foreseeable uk oven burner!!! 'For highlight'...
  21. The gfs 18z throwing up what is increasing showing in the ens... The trough dangling further out west(atlantic) aiding heat fusion into the uk...morso east/south east quadrant. 30c+ easily acheivable-through the weekend...and an increase in that balance further on. The jet profile highlighting the split/cut off points where the heat intensity is more highly-favoured. I can see the AT -TROUGH becoming a weaker feature with progression...
  22. Indeed-even from this standpoint, the mass azhp looks to quickly develop with clear and concise eyeing of northwards progress in uk shores. All this given that the north west atlantic low(trough)-engages as far into mainland uk as the ecm 12z wants. So the word blip becomes adiquate-and just a possible notion. Everything really geared toward a quick evolution back to warm/hot ....rather quickly!!!! Ens(gfs)compare..6z/12z..highlighting the mean and members firmly in that way of thinking.
  23. begining to gain both momentumn-and support.... via ens/annoms. some truly ridiculous values into mid/late next week.... some records smashed i would 'likely' assume. !!!!
  24. All very well... 'However'.. as a reiteration.. The ens start to fall into the pack... As the ops-etc- start to evaluate. Members and mean take the contrast and take note of ridging-as once again angular-synopsis chase the tail. Wide open flow at maritime/pacific.. Allow yet again' the narrow margin on large scale....triangular direct heat evolution... With the now out suite models decipher. The raws shall follow there ensembles-and with the angular flow should see-agree... Its a ridge builder with amp to shut down any complexities of pm airflow/or-no tropical maritime influx. AZHP-has circular-and sea temps-tresolve... August lining as the notable summer month!!! For guidance;.. The ridge miss-placement with overall, miss [email protected] range outs.... Clockwork dymamics...that look likey to fall into favour for the nw euro sector..with non rolling Atlantic micro system's..as the roll will temper-inflow!!
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