tight isobar

A definitive sway into southerly tracking winds across france… and biscay she’s getting bumped up ???

Anyones guess atm- I’ll reiterate, today’s outs will almost certainly firm up now. Kent has a decent chance of some snow for sure even given the current outs.. we’ll see where we are at this afternoon . @ outputs latest takes.

Awaiting the gfs/ecm 6z on this .

Encouraging. As I said (but post now moved) it’s the 1st official day of our arctic outbreak, and I’ve already had an unexpected dusting!.. on we roll the gfs 6z will be interesting for possible upgrades in placements.

Incidentally - this being a notion of unexpected activity, only a dusting but not picked up via any asserted model!!! @ Bampton oxfordshire just now .

We are rinsing the hell out of this now !!.. but yeah 1 more pop it’s I suppose worth but for me no change via the 6z. It’s a dead en. But again we’ll give it a final note this morning…

Bummer .. still not completely shutting this 1 down just yet.. this is the crux of northward transfer!!.. I’ll still await ens.. nxt suites I think…@north west waver spoiler -

I’m rallying this 12z gfs run..

These warnings will wax n wane over the nxt few days- as to be expected in such a flow- tiny increments will change possible warning zones/ areas. Seen this MANY times ..

The 00z London ones say… precipitation “highly likely “ between 16/18th on we roll…. To add gfs 6z snow depth chart for the same time “ given it’s all subjective atm” but rays of light certainly filtering through on this ..

Yeah ere we go again peeps-( buckle up buttercups) msts 00z even hinting “ bk end of January “ cold transition!! . And can we perhaps get a better wellied mlb/- HLB together . Further I’m still punting some drops n shocks, in our now getting - going cold SPELL!- even though the very latest modeling discounts that to a degree.

Now that a solid mean!! Over to the 12z on this 1

We are now over the cusp and into arctic airflow.. and that being on the very verge of a new week- That all taken into account today’s 12z suites would/ should offer up much sterner exaction’s!.. on local overheads- as well as nationwide!..

Indeed snow chances evaporating every run now !!!@countrywide.

If there’s no change on today’s 12z it’s a no - goer!!. Kent and the south coast still in with a pretty big shout.

I’m dropping v1- snap going forward- from tonight’s 12z epsf- The next variation is there and … let’s hope it’s an evolutionary trait, @ eyes to the polar CONTINENTAL plots….

Just b4? I rip through the eps throws like a hungry man going through a bin!!! Let’s take a blend of upper temperatures/ member trends- and precipitation!!! I’ll leave the longer term s said “ for now”!! Let’s look at a random blend of icon/ gfs/gem- keeping it simple the guise of pressure- and precipitation spikes with a flat 24 hr zone in ens @cross ,,, more or less… these the London. Spreads.. precipitation- to level values say…. The ops/ raws are underestimating the frontal interruption “ pretty naively”!!! - watch this 1 upgrade in a massive/marked scale….

The prognosis is …

That’s a watcher!- I had a feeling not only an inland extension.. but a bow..n, pivot under the flow….. That “would be something “!!

Safice to say- a classic under /upper maybe?!! The energy it will have gained… if she hits @ 150/200 miles on bedrock!! It’s snow chaos!! “ once again “ - this is a truly evolutionary if- but- or maybe.. keep watching

We have until Monday on this- and I’ve seen these bounce until 12hrs out @ fruition! It’s still worth a note..

Ec 96- northward she rolls !!

northward track on this - how effective still remains!!

There is scope !! And if the-gfs has relaxing shortwaving in the mid Atlantic north.. the window becomes wider!!

Ec 6z- and a want of uk channel/ land mark structure!!.. again this has legs.. !! Nudge north ya @@******