stodge

Just been out in lowland East London. Initially light rain but a heavier pulse has passed through in the past 30-45 minutes. The heaviest rain looks to be to the west and south west of London currently. I'm also noting some lively showers embedded in the rain developing over North Norfolk and tracking SSW in the flow so there's plenty more for London in the next few hours. The current rain belt tracks back NE to Suffolk and that looks as though it will impact London early this afternoon.

Nothing yet in East Ham either it seems though the earlier Sun has been replaced with growing cloud. Looking at the circulation pattern across England we must be near the centre of the LP so showers might pop out of nowhere.

Afternoon all Here in lowland East Ham we seem to be between the two main areas of activity - the frontal rain has stalled to the west of London and over the Chilterns while the storms over Essex seem to be going nowhere slowly. One or two storms down toward the south coast might move toward London in time. Here the Sun is out, there's plenty of cloud and it's warmed up sharply so there may be trouble (or fun) to come later on.

Morning all We really are grasping at straws putting up the T+384 chart from the OP but the morning output isn't brilliant for fans of heat though it's a long way from being all doom and gloom. Here's the GEM 00Z OP at T+168: You'll see worse charts than this with HP close to the SE corner but I do concede it's not brilliant for Scotland and Northern Ireland. ECM 00Z at the same time: Similar but with the LP further North-West, it's decent weather for all. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: Again,. settled and reasonable for all. The message is if you're after 10-14 days of fine, settled weather you won't find it for now. However, a 3-5 window of decent conditions around next weekend and early next week seems plausible at this point. Unfortunately, it doesn't last with the trough coming back.

Morning all No question this morning's output is the most favourable for those wanting settled and dry conditions for some considerable time. All the main models are firming up on a spell of anticyclonic weather starting at the end of next week and, with a slight hiatus in the early part of the following week, continuing through mid month. Fortunately there are none of those absurdly high 850s on offer (42c yesterday on Corsica, no thanks) so it would be warm and pleasant rather than hot and uncomfortable which I'm sure no one wants. A very pleasant end to summer IF it verifies but the signs are good this morning.

Morning all Yes, perhaps a window of opportunity in the medium term starting to emerge. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: ECM 00Z OP at the same time: GEM 00Z OP at the same time: GFS doesn't hold the HP and lets the Atlantic back in but ECM has a stronger ridge and the jet further north so there's something to play for at the end of next week and perhaps beyond. It's the evolution to a settled and warm rather than hot pattern which may be on the cards. The problem is GFS, which looks the most favourable, develops a shallow LP to the west of Scotland, runs it across northern Scotland and suppresses the Azores Ridge leaving us in a w'ly regime. At the very end of FI there looks more than a hint of a Scandinavian trough and a mid-Atlantic ridge which won't end well for fans of heat.

As am I, my friend. I pointed out last night the 12Z had some encouragement through the GFS Members in terms of a significant cluster showing the Azores HP trying to ridge NE but I'd make two observations from this morning's output: 1) Neither the OP nor Control want to know and we can't ignore that. 2) The cluster showing Azores HP dominant has declined numerically overnight. It's a significant cluster (about a third of the members) and that in itself influences the Mean but it's also in low-res so just as if a third of the members were touting an E'ly at T+288 in January, everyone would be sceptical the same rules should apply now. Next week is gone if you want settled and warm conditions and the following week is looking very iffy at the moment. You may well be right that the second half of August will be better - can't say one way or the other but it's a valid point just as those arguing for the continuation of Atlantic influence may be right as well.

To be honest, it's less a sense of "doom and gloom" as some of the eternally optimistic put it but the OP continues run after run to maintain the unsettled picture. Here's the OP at T=240: Here's the Control at the same time - even worse: Looking at the Panel at the same time, I count 7 members with HP dominance so it's not an insignificant cluster by any means and I'm sure the Mean is reflective of it (it has to be): http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 The point is, it's a cluster, yes and one to be acknowledged but with the OP and Control not wanting to show any significant HP influence you have to wonder what the genuine direction of travel is at present.

Evening all Frosty's natural optimism notwithstanding, there are plenty of GFS Members showing a more settled picture out at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Only a couple show the HP drawing up warm/hot air and indeed settled may mean the Azores HP ridging to our NW pulling in a NE'ly flow. Plenty more runs needed as they say...

Afternoon all Let's be clear though - any "hope" from the GFS 06Z OP is in low-res with a brief settling in the south at the end of the first week in August and, after a brief hiatus, a more sustained pressure rise for part of the second week before another breakdown at the end of FI. It's low-res, it's FI, it's transitory. That being said, it's the crumbs from the table but it'll be interesting to see if this a) becomes a trend and b) is reflected in the Ensembles for 06Z let alone later runs. For now, it's not exactly grim but it's not exactly great.

Morning all Very much a case of trying to make something of the scraps this morning. These re hardly unprecedented or unusual charts though - August can be a very wet month if the pattern gets stuck over us and while I'm in no way writing off the month as a whole, the first week or so doesn't look that promising. I do think points south may scrape a couple of decent days next week: A half decent day for Goodwood. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: One or two of the GEFS members bring the pulse of Iberian heat tantalisingly close to the SE but it's transitory at best (P11 at T+240 a good example) but there must always be a chance under the right circumstances (slowing Atlantic trough and a build of HP to the east) we could get a brief warmer incursion but for now it's what we have. Some will welcome the rainfall and cooler conditions - most won't but it's the same for us all.

Morning all Mr Beard has a point inasmuch as the GFS is the most "hopeful" of the main models if you want fine and warm/hot conditions but that relies on the LP first stalling and then drifting away NW allowing a general pressure rise and a draw of very warm/hot air from Iberia. Some of the Members suggest this, in fairness some don't. Neither ECM nor GEM are that inspiring if heat is what you're after. Yes, in the SE there will be drier and warmer spells but fairly transient in all honesty and for all the amounts of rain may not be large that certainly doesn't mean cloudless skies and heat from dawn till dusk. The 06Z seems a step back in the short term with the LP too close to the British Isles to allow a flow from Iberia to reach even the SE and a developing secondary feature looking likely to track across the south early next week: Some optimistic hints in low-res but more around settled than hot.

Afternoon all A rare summer visit for me into the model output area. In lowland East London, it's been a decent summer thus far but the overriding theme has been the continuation of the long dry spell which has gone on since last autumn. A couple of decent warm/hot spells and overall pleasant (and I understand how frustrating it has been for points further north) but the lack of prolonged rainfall has been the main story. Looking toward the end of the month it's not a good picture for those wanting heat though (and again with my IMBY hat on) it's hardly a washout and there are days with transient ridges which, if you're lucky, could be very pleasant. The GFS 00Z OP at T+240: A weak ridge of HP for the south but a cool WNW'ly flow and heights to the far NW though the Atlantic has perhaps slowed a fraction. ECM 00Z OP at the same time: Not hugely different though the Azores HP is more pronounced suggesting a longer window of fair weather before the next Atlantic incursion. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: Perhaps the jet tracking back north a fraction ? The flow is still sourced from Labrador so nothing warm I'm afraid though as usual in these set ups the south fares better than the north. Tracking back through the 00Z Ensembles at T+240 and it's the lack of variation that is the most striking. There are nuances on the exact placement of the jet but only one tries to build a weak HP to the east and all the rest have Atlantic control in one form or another and some Members are worse in terms of weather for the British Isles than the OP (the Control for one) with the jet even further south. It's going to be a disappointing ten to fourteen days I fear for those wanting heat but with the whole of August to come far too early to be disheartened. Upstream and other events may work more in our favour with time but I fear our old friend Patience will be paying an extended visit.

Evening all Here in lowland East London and with the assistance of the wonderful Netweather Radar an observation or two. There seem to be three distinct "lines" of activity - the largest and heaviest storm looks as though it will fringe west and north west London and head over the Chilterns. A weaker band over Kent looks as though it will pass over the Thames Estuary and into Essex. I'm more interested in the developing and at this time still fragmented middle area which has seen activity develop over Horsham and Billingshurst and the NNE drift of that might be interesting for my part of the world. That feeds back to another area of heavy and developing rain passing to the SE of Selsey Bill which again looks on course for London later on.

Suspect the new record is safe for today. Andujar in Jaen Province (the one next to Cordoba) is just shy of 44c presently with Cordoba Airport chilling at 43c. A couple of hours to go however and the hottest air from Africa arrives early evening to the far south east of Spain.

Just to note the GFS 06Z is calling for 30-32c 850HPA over south east Spain this afternoon so it will be interesting to see if yesterday's record is challenged today. In the south west of the United States and especially in places like Phoenix and Palm Springs, it can get to 47c and even beyond in the hottest spells and they take the Extreme Heat Advisories very seriously. I've been in Las Vegas with a temperature of 42c on the Strip and it catches up with you as the humidity is so low. The ability of Europe to deal with corresponding levels of heat is less clear but as you say it's quite possible we'll see very hot spells in Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Southern France occur more regularly and with greater severity and longevity.

Incredibly hot still in the interior of Spain with a few stations still above 40c as a plume of 28c 850HPA air from Africa spreads over the south and centre of the country. I wonder when the 50c record will be broken in Spain - sometime in the next 10-20 years ?

Yes, and again it's a question of degree (or degrees I suppose). I see 25-30c from the 00Z charts as perfectly possible (and of course London might nick a degree or two above that). What I don't see is much above that and indeed with a NE'ly flow many southern areas will be more in the mid 20s. Conversely, the set up will lead to higher temperatures in areas which have not fared so well this summer to date. The GEM 00Z OP is brilliant for high temperatures in the NW of Scotland and N Ireland and 30c in a glen somewhere is possible I suppose. NW England might do well off the ECM set up - great news for the Lakes at the start of the summer tourist season. GFS 00Z OP is less inspiring to this observer as is the 06Z OP - ridging from the west or south west means a west or north-west flow across the British Isles. Atlantic-sourced air is cooler so it's 20s rather than 30s for most but it would be generally benign and especially so for places like Devon and Cornwall (and of course the Scillies).

Morning all Interesting to see the discussion evolving as always. I don't frankly see the heat-wave of which some speak. I do see the possibility particularly for the north to enjoy a spell of fine, settled weather which would no doubt be most welcome while the south looks more at risk from a thundery incursion as the LP splits the two HP centres. The GFS OP at T+240: ECM 00Z at the same time: Stronger ridge and the LP kept far to the south but the wind isn't coming from the south but from the NE so warm yes and potentially humid but I don't see big heat from that chart. GEM 00Z at the same time: The positioning of the HP cell is very different from both GFS and ECM and clearly there's detail to be resolved. A noticeable and refreshing E'ly breeze for southern counties (probably about my favourite type of weather) but potentially very warm/hot for NW Scotland and N Ireland. GFS 00Z OP breaks down the spell rapidly in FI with a surge of mid-Atlantic ridging but obviously that's a very long way off and does run contrary to the views of Exeter and other forecasters who suggest some longevity to the warm/very warm spell.

We did get a brief burst of rain from the expanding Waltham Abbey storm. Looking at the radar it seemed to spawn an area of rain to the SW of the immediate storm centre. Not sure if this will develop over East London. Small radar returns to the SW of London - will these develop over the Greater London area ?

Evening all Heard a few rumbles here in sultry East Ham half an hour ago from the storm passing to the north - suspect very heavy rain around Waltham Abbey and Loughton. The cloud build up was fascinating and clouds moving in different directions at different levels. No rain here as yet and suspect we're going to miss out.

Evening all Mrs Stodge and I are just back from a ten day break on Zakynthos, also known as Zante. In weather terms, eight of the ten days were as you would expect - dry, sunny and hot with a cloudless sky and only a light N'ly wind. We hit 34c twice and above 30c on five other days according to the Greek weather service (hnms.gr). Two days were less settled and more interesting oddly enough. The overall synoptics were a controlling LP system to the south and south east linking back to the thermal LP over the Persian Gulf. With HP to the west and north, Zakynthos enjoyed a refreshing N'ly breeze on most days but on these two days the heat of the day over the Greek interior spawned small LP areas and thunderstorms. Greece has many islands and two significant land masses, the mainland and the Peloponnese (separated by the Corinth Canal). Both generate thunderstorms and thermal LP areas. As the Peloponnese LP evolves, it pulls the winds round more to the NE over the southern Ionian Islands and cloud drifts west from the mainland over to the islands and on one occasion one of the storms came with strong winds and a brief downpour. As the LP drifts north over the mainland, the N'ly over the islands becomes a W'ly and this draws in fresher clearer air from the sea and the humidity crashes. The winter rains and snow in the hills in 2016-17 had been intense with widespread flooding on a couple of occasions.

Looking at the morning output, the westward correction takes the ridge more into the mid-Atlantic (the fabled Scenario B). Fans of heat wanted the ridge just to the east of the British Isles (Scenario A) being propped up from the mid-Atlantic trough. That has happened but the trough has now started to move eastward again dragging everything along with it and the eastward correction does us no favours leaving us under the trough. FWIW (and that's not much), I do think the next correction will see us benefitting from the ridge but that may be late June/early July and that's often an optimum time for high temperatures if the synoptics are right and we can import some hot air from points south.

Morning all Another fine and warm start here in London Town but an upper haziness suggesting something more interesting is on its way. Will we get a storm this afternoon or evening ? Over to the SE Regional or the Convective/Storms Thread if you want to know more - not my place: I'm looking at medium range model output here taking us to the start of a new working week - Monday June 12th: Starting with the GEM 00Z OP output this morning and the picture at T+240: Not perhaps the most summery of charts but quite a lot happens in the evolution though very broad brush it's LP to the north and HP to the south with the British Isles in the middle of the river so to speak. Once the trough breaks through over this weekend and early next week, LP is in charge. There's a fascinating little LP moving west from Scandinavia to Iceland - not sure what that's about but it invigorates a secondary feature which deepens as it moves in from the west next Friday ruining the weekend for many while the next feature from the Atlantic fills and disrupts SE across southern parts though with a strong ridge out of Greenland, a weak Azores HP and a southerly tracking jet it looks as though a chain of LP systems will be moving across the British Isles keeping most parts cool and wet. ECM 00Z at the same time: Not a million miles away from yesterday's offering and pretty bleak for those wanting heat apart perhaps from an occasional transient ridge. Successive and quite vigorous LP systems come in off the Atlantic bringing in periods of rain and strong winds and more worryingly, ECM again, as yesterday, hints at a mid-Atlantic ridge for mid month which suggests a spell of cool N'ly winds might be on offer. Finally, GFS 00Z OP at the same time: No point sugar coating this either, it's a poor run for lovers of heat. A significant and quite intense area of LP moves in from the SW toward the end of next week and basically means three or four days of cool and wet weather with rain or showers for all and strong winds for some. Further into FI, heights build briefly south of Iceland and the weather settles before LP moves in again at the very end of FI. The 00Z Control is very similar but further into FI sets up an HP in mid-Atlantic leaving the British Isles in a slack northerly (Scenario B). Looking at the 00Z GEFS , there's still plenty of spread over Scandinavia - some members take the trough over there which would keep the British Isles cool and unsettled while a minority continue to build heights into Scandinavia - that might be from the trough slowing down just to the west of the British isles or possibly through an undercut as the LP disrupts SE into Europe. The problem with all this variable though it may be the outcome for the British Isles is much the same - LP dominance with the likelihood of rain or showers for many. There's little or no sign of any heat prolonged or otherwise on the charts this morning and, to be honest, I'm left with two thoughts - one, many parts need the rain and second, summer has hardly started and there may be an argument that getting the bad weather out of the way leaves potential for July and August to be better - maybe, maybe not ?

Afternoon all GFS 06Z OP isn't inspiring for fans of heat and it's actually a tad worse than the 00Z in terms of rain but not as cold. GEM had the Scenario A evolution this morning and that looks the best we can hope for at this time. Both ECM and GFS are more progressive and keep the LP systems moving off the Atlantic across the British Isles. I also have to say both show rising heights in the mid-Atlantic further into June which would land us in Scenario B with the trough over us.