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    North Carolina
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    Any science-y related stuff, lately into Space weather forecasting, and learning more about the Stratosphere.
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    Warm sunny days

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  1. Doesn't last. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/mrf3.nh.shtml
  2. The reason behind the odd QBO locking in earlier this year was due to the strong el Nino event. That explains a lot, actually. In the ensemble with observed SSTs we find a strong and significant alignment of the ensemble members in the equatorial stratospheric winds in the 2 to 4 years after the strong ENSO event in 1997. This alignment also includes the observed QBO. No such alignment is found in the ensemble with climatological SSTs. These results indicate that strong warm ENSO events can lock the phase of the QBO. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070751/abst
  3. The Last 2 GFS runs are showing a full recovery of the +zonalwinds, Recretos, by the weekend.
  4. Can we really use this as a tool? r=.48 doesnt stand out to me as important. As much as I love solar weather ( I run Accuweather Astronomy Facebook page) I Would like to see higher r squared.
  5. Yes in the study I linked shows a 15 K above normal. section 2.2 paragraph [10]
  6. I wonder if this is a response from the USLM disurbance. would be right on cue if so.
  7. A USLM (Upper Strat/lower Meso) disturbance looks to be developing. From studies, this would indicate there is a 33% chance of major SSW within 14 days +/- 2 from this point. To read more about USLMs, check out this study. http://www.academia.edu/4056817/A_climatology_of_polar_winter_stratopause_warmings_and_associated_planetary_wave_breaking
  8. 0z GFS shows wave 2 pattern then giving way to a displaced wave 1 pattern at 30mb
  9. The positive anomaly begins already at the 1mb level. just noting the warming has begun to an extent :-)
  10. Zonal mean zonal winds also seem to be dying down too by Day 10. Good signs!
  11. Just to add to the thread, notice the NAM is pretty darn positive throughout all levels.
  12. Wave2 is on the increase. Maybe that's what the prolonged MT is stirring up as well.
  13. Thanks. Great analogy. helps me understand better. And about the 1Hpa warming is anything to watch? looks to be downwelling at a decent rate. but i assume this is fairly normal this time of year.
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