not saying it will come off, 1 FI ensemble member, but no PV in usual place, no ugly purples to our NW, yet we are still mild! hope it won't be a 'nearly' winter, would rather full on mild than being wet and getting great synoptic setup with no result
Yes all the 12Z models snowless for the south, average temps mostly, mild mon and tues, only snow is showing for hills of the north, low levels maybe Scotland, from Wed to Sun 20th
just hope DWW that winds are westerly enough to avoid dreaded Cheshire Gap day, my favourite chart on there is one on far left! although GFS feel are modeling Tuesday's front too far north
Nov is generally too early in the South for cold, best time for cold setups is Mid Dec to Mid Jan, low sun, lowest daylight hours, but this is usually the most westerly period of the year
yes it's Nov still, even before 2000, Nov was rarely cold, but we appear to be getting back to normal, Atlantic train arriving, but I prefer SW'lys to NW'lys, today will be a washout, Friday dry as you say, Sat hopefully drier than today, Sat PM?
yes, only Nov though, still autumn, but tend to agree with your posts, welcome to 2000+ westerlies modeled all the way
then the straw clutching of the christmas pudding, 384 GFS chart may lead to a SSW, 240 ECM chart shows 6° max, and a NW'ly
yes, and I don't even like christmas pudding, also think the hilly members will have a slow thaw during Wednesday evening, as less cold air moves in from the Atlantic, not exactly a great event us low down members are missing out on, as here air would be even milder when the Atlantic breaks through
being realistic, but probably my christmas pudding biased thoughts, and my believing of snow only on hills, but I think only snow in this region will be on Peaks, Flash, and 200m+, slushy mess, 300m+ proper snow
Flash 425m, powdery snow 20cms