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Ali1977

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Everything posted by Ali1977

  1. Ali1977
    winterof79 That’s a pretty solid mean day 10 onwards, maybe just coming into view on the ECM too!! And you are correct ref the myth of needing -10c uppers in late Feb, no idea why people make this stuff up The Sea is at its coldest point into March which helps too, and why it’s easier to get snow Into March vs November and even December!! Winter still looks to be coming 24/25 Feb ️ and we have a major SSW so expect some craziness into March too
  2. Ali1977
    Winter still coming 24/25 Feb ️
  3. Ali1977
    Day 4,8,10 strat temps - I don’t know why people are discounting the chance of something very cold late Feb and ignoring op charts for now - just keep an eye on the ENS for another few days till the ops get a handle on the SSW!! Winter is coming - finally ️️️ I’ll add FI - destruction complète!!
  4. Ali1977
    With the GEFS and EPS means looking good later Feb, and the latest op - think Feb 24th is a good point to aim for anything remotely winter like - hopefully it happens and doesn’t slip Anymore to the right!!
  5. Ali1977
    T300 mean is pretty good
  6. Ali1977
    Oh yes
  7. Ali1977
    Great mean - winter is coming ️️ Some of the better ENS here
  8. Ali1977
    Uncertainty we just need a better set of GEFS and a ECM to match now
  9. Ali1977
    UKMO GEM great - GFS hopefully very wrong!!
  10. Ali1977
    Prepare for some 12z upgrades - can feel it
  11. Ali1977
    KTtom not discounting CC , with Scandy having an incredibly cold winter I don’t think getting cold would be a problem if we got the HP in the right place - although I guess some will say that’s due to CC. Over the last few years the UKs snowiest periods have often been into March - so you never know.
  12. Ali1977
    People are giving up too early, this is a good mean late on - let the SSW do its stuff , and I think winter still has a sting in its tail. BFTE was late Feb/early March and that was pretty severe - we could still get that and hopefully some longevity afterwards - and then we’ll all be ready for summer.
  13. Ali1977
    Lukesluckybunch just need the high lay block first - hopefully the cold would come - this is way FI now and the block sets up days 7/8 - it’ll look very different in reality the further we go into FI - hopefully better
  14. Ali1977
    Lukesluckybunch of take that at day 10 , PV ain’t coming back any time soon
  15. Ali1977
    PV Oblitération here, not the perfect set up yet but it’s a good way forward
  16. Ali1977
    Day 8 looking like it’s close to a good set up, good swings so far on the 12z
  17. Ali1977
    SSW with very little recovery - March is going to be fun ️
  18. Ali1977
    This is very close to being very good - let’s see where it goes
  19. Ali1977
    Lukesluckybunch looking likely, and icon in the same sentence?? I’d wait for the rest of the runs first!!
  20. Ali1977
    There are 6/7 decent ensembles at day 9 a bit like these, but I think people are just fed up so not seeing the possibilities here. I think some rapid swings to better Synoptics are really quite probable.
  21. Ali1977
    Lukesluckybunch i don’t think we should be expecting anything cold in the next 10 days, all eyes on the last 10 days of Feb as the SSW starts to manifest itself lower down - we need some luck
  22. Ali1977
    I think it’ll be a day of upgrades from here in, and I just have a feeling the SSW will deliver something pretty good for the U.K. , we are in a world of extremes regarding the weather - so let’s top March 2013 ECM at 216 is trying!!
  23. Ali1977
    If we are lucky we can get the right Synoptics around 20 Feb, still time for some severe stuff before the sun really comes into play early March
  24. Ali1977
    Dog with a bone the Arpege, defo a slight move north though
  25. Ali1977
    Harveyslugger this is true - but at what times at was that? I think that was around 4/5 days out
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