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Everything posted by Ali1977
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
Ali1977 replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
Ali1977 replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
Ali1977 replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cold enough for a dusting of snow from the East, long way off but a dryer cold air mass looks very possible - snow forecasting pointless at this stage but you never know -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
Ali1977 replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Chilly easterly at day 10, dew points will be below freezing but mot sure it’s a snow machine at this time of the year!! Day 11/12 may be turning colder still though. Edit - Day 11 and the snow showers off the North Sea starts!! -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
Ali1977 replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Best chance of U.K. wide snow this winter - probably last week of March ?? Overnight GFS looking cold day 10, ECM following - if not colder Day 10, -10c uppers -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
Ali1977 replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z vs 18z, that’s some upgrade towards a cold snowy Easterly for the U.K., although I can’t say I’d wish a big freeze hitting those poor people to our East -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO 168, ECM 240 then a cherry picked GFS Control in FI. Let’s hope things speed up and we can get a cold Easterly feed in the first half of March -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM day 10, cold enough for snow showers from the east for most of the U.K. and only getting colder. Long way off , and further into March we need very good Synoptics for lying snow and deep cold but this would do in early March. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Even in FI we’ve not had many charts showing possible chillier easterly feeds, I’d take some nice hard frosts and pleasant days into March - no doubt it’ll be a colder month than Dec/Jan/Feb -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
75-90 mph winds for many, there can’t be many storms in the past showing that inland . I fully expect an Amber warning for most in the above 70mph bracket, I’m not sure what the METO would class as a red warning for wind - has that ever been done ?????? -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS sticks with the track towards north England meaning the south still get hit by storms, the wrap round may still bring some back edge snow for some who get rain earlier in the day. Icon looks great for the south midlands As does the control And lastly the mean for Friday evening suggest snow chance for many, although muted by many different outcomes so can’t take the wide area as “snowing”!! -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The snow event seems to be shifting , the mean brings it south and the control smashes the M4 corridor!! In fact Friday night seems to be showing a snow event for the south midlands on many ENS -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Add the control (and others ) to the shift south, the south Midlands and even into far SW get snow - big snow for some -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ICON takes the precip way south, probably wrong but it may mean the GFS slips further south on the pub run - the icon was much further south on the last run however!! GFS does bring it south, Midlands now in firing line for snow and the strongest winds head towards the channel - interesting times -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There are several GEFS members taking the track of Fridays storm south enough to give snow anywhere, P27 best for this!! -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like the 06z GFS takes both systems further north, good for the Scots but rubbish for the majority of everyone else !! -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ali1977 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Models seem to be forming up on a decent snow event for southern Scotland next weekend as the little low tracks through the U.K.