Weather-history

Snow has got heavier, wind whipping it around, grass getting whiter, roofs are starting to collect.

Steady snow, slushy deposit develop on cars and some soil and grass getting a whitish tinge

Snow blowing around in the wind.

Not expecting much. Has been snowing and the wind has been howling at times but I can't see much or any lying from this around here. The temperatures need to drop further and probably the wind as well as well as continuous heavy precipitation. Western parts especially the Liverpool area look favourable at the moment.

Meteoalerte http://meteoalerte.com/france/prev/ncl/fr_12/SN.2.gif

Hmmm, I remember 1995 and that was on the back of one of the wettest winters on record.

The thing is though Gavin is a hot summer going to be any better for farmers especially if it is a very dry one? Hot and dry can be just as bad to farmers as cold and wet. Just looks at summer 2003 for farmers in Europe.

The Manchester long term forecast based on that ECM 12z run http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/long.html Amazing for the last week of March Detailed forecast http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/hour_by_hour.html

Paul Blight has given his analysis on UkWeatherworld http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/97284-synoptic-discussion-heavy-snow-end-march-cold-spell/page__pid__850273#entry850273

The key is calm air. If the wind drops out like with GFS is hinting and we have high pressure then temperatures could plunge in the cold airmass. We had a very cold airmass that Monday but there was a wind associated with it. You are not going to get very low minima under those conditions despite the very cold uppers. You low minima occur under calm conditions and infact the lowest temperature from that spell was recorded under such conditions after the very cold uppers had retreated.

I'm not expecting a lot. Having said that I remember late February 1994 which had a frontal system pushing up from the SW and it stalled over the region and we got a good covering from it. There was hardly any wind associated with it. I don't know what's going to happen.

It got to -7C here.

I point out we are literally entering uncharted territory here. We do not know how this is going to turn out, -10 to -11 air over the region, from an area that is in the deep freeze across a North Sea that is near its coldest and is below normal and this at the back end of March.

Thanks Roger Well if that was the case then that would mean March colder than January and colder than a colder than average January at that.

Might be worth looking at the coldest last week of March on record for the CET. Without looking at the figures, could be the coldest end March since at least 1901

March minima date records 25. -11.7 1919 26. -11.4Â 2008 27. -11.7 1969 28. -10.0 1969 29. -17.2 1901 30. -10.0 1941 31. -9.2 1897 Keep an eye on these. The 28th record could go.

11th February 2001

I think we were due one and it would seem only a matter of time before we get a really cold February. That would be the last piece of the jigsaw now.

December 2010 August 1995 Both for their exceptional nature. August 2004 For how thundery it was January 2010 For the snow May 1992 Very warm and thundery at times.

Yes but my point wasn't rain itself but the frequency and the amount of it. Rain day after day after day. I can't see the enjoyment of constant drizzle or constant steady rain. I really can't.

Yes but the list above are consecutive months below the 1961-90 average. Both March and May 2012 were above the average.

28th January 2001

Consecutive months that were below the 1961-90 average since January 2001 Feb 2013: 3.2 Jan 2013: 3.5 ---------- Oct 2012: 9.7 Sep 2012: 13.0 ---------- Jul 2012: 15.5 Jun 2012: 13.5 ---------- Aug 2011: 15.4 July 2011: 15.2 June 2011: 13.8 ----------- Jan 2011: 3.7 Dec 2010: -0.7 Nov 2010: 5.2 Oct 2010: 10.3 ------------ Feb 2010: 2.8 Jan 2010: 1.4 Dec 2009: 3.1 ----------- Jan 2009: 3.0 Dec 2008: 3.5 ---------- Oct 2008: 9.7 Sep 2008: 13.5 ---------- Aug 2007: 15.4 July 2007: 15.2 ---------- Mar 2006: 4.9 Feb 2006: 3.7 ---------- Dec 2005: 4.4 Nov 2005: 6.2 ---------- Apr 2001: 7.7 Mar 2001: 5.2 Notable how consecutive below average months have increased recently and against the 1961-90 averages at that. If the trend continues than we must expect to return cool or cold seasons more often than recently. We already had the coldest winter since 1978-79 and the joint coolest summer since 1985. Feel we are due for a notably cool/cold spring. The last one was 1996.

What record breaking cold? They show sharp frosts but no negative double digit minima, the maxima are low but not exactly sub zero or hovering near freezing.

Looked at the Manchester forecast based on the ECM 12z run http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/long.html