Ravelin

A less than easy commute home in awful weather just now. Windy, 5C, pitch black, heavy rain, lots of surface water, including the A944 fully submerged in a couple of the usual places. At least the ice has gone from the driveway, which is about the only positive I can think of.

I saw -8c in Alford and -6C in Westhill, with nothing any higher in between, on this morning's commute (after spending 10mins trying to clear a thick frost off the car windows) . Too busy to notice what kind of day it was, but the commute home was pretty much all sub zero too. In fact, just looking at various weather stations around Alford it was an ice day (so far), or damn close to it, on most. Roads much less icy than yesterday though despite it being colder. Could be interesting again in the morning if the forecast rain moves in overnight. Will have to warm up quickly, and even then the ground will still be very cold.

Currently -2.9C and this might be the last sub-zero night for a bit. Probably welcome too, as the driveway and a lot of the back roads were skating rinks this morning as wet roads refroze. On to the search for the next cold spell, one at Xmas would be nice for a change.

Low of 1.3C, high of 3.3C, currently 2.2C, and the 7mm or so of overnight rain just made the driveway icier than it'd been during the cold spell. Had to throw salt over it again after I got home from work as, if anything, it seemed worse than this morning.

2C here and very similar to the above, just thrown grit across a very icy driveway. Might catch out some of the "must get to work", couldn't get out of bed 5mins earlier, idiots on the A944

Well if the local weather station is to be believed, not quite an ice day as the temp got above freezing around 6pm and has been hovvering around 1C pretty much since then. Stuck my head out the back door and I'd say its currently raining lightly, but the thin covering of snow on the driveway and cars out front seems intact. Possibly as they are still very cold? Could be an interesting commute in the morning if it stays like this. Forecasts suggesting it still stays relatively cold here, if not as cold as the last few days, until late Wed. Then gets a bit milder, but still below average for Dec?

Still -1.8C and just had a brief light snow shower. VID_20231203_120800289.mp4

Rather chilly inside too by the looks of that. Overnight low here of -7.0C in the early hours but it's risen to -3.9C currently. Looks like a bit more cloud around than yesterday. Forecasts a bit all over the place as to when exactly it'll turn milder here, but it should stay on the cold side today. Can we get a second ice day in a row though? Edit: I'm sure Glenshee Ski Center would love this ECM forecast for the end of the week to actually happen...

Warmest it's been so far here is - 1.6C, and with the sun dropping and the temperature back down to - 3.0C I think we can safely call it an ice day. Certainly felt rather chilly when out walking the dog a little while ago, even with it calm and being in the sun some of the time.

Stop moaning about lack of MetO warnings, they just ruin the nice surprises. So far we've hit a high of - 2.9C here, despite wall to wall sunshine.

Cracking photos, only the truly dedicated (or snow starved) go out for a late night snow walk. Great to see so many have a surprise snow fall, and decent amounts lying too. Just very cold here, currently -6.2C, which is only slightly above the current overnight low. Could it be an ice day?

High of 1.6C here today according to the local station along the road, but as that coincided with a spike in solar radiation I'm not sure how accurate it is, ie likely the sun directly hit the station. Low for the day is -2.8C so far, which is the current temp. Likely going to drop further as sky was cloudless on the drive home, with car showing variations between - 2c and -4c between Westhill and Alford.

Bit of a blizzard around Tillyfourie on my drive home around 4:45pm, just about lying as a sleety mess on the road. Road outside my house is similar, with a wet covering on the grass in the garden. Snowed in Westhill too during the afternoon, but no hint of it lying, despite over 900 pupils willing it to in the hope of an early finish (not even close). Now is the point we really enter the freezer around here according to most forecasts, with any snow being a bonus.

Well around 10:30 this morning in Westhill a couple of my pupils said "Oh look, it's snowing" to which I replied "it's not cold enough today, it can't be... oh...so it is". Brief, heavy and wet, but definitely snow. Generally though it's been miserable and wet but although feeling cold it's not quite cold enough to be of real interest. Not even a hint of a frost this morning. Not read the MOD thread today, or really looked at the models, but quick glances at forecasts based on the latest runs still suggest cold but largely dry for NE Scotland.

Overnight low of -1.7C and has dragged itself up to a max of 0.4C so far. Calm with a lot of high cloud with occasional breaks. Best snow potential is definitely later in the week but when, amounts etc keeps changing, as expected at this range. Might manage a couple of lying cm by Friday.

You can see from this why the ECM 0Z run was much favoured by the MOD squad... Rather chilly, but not exactly going to be buried in snow. Currently a sunny 3.3C, which might be as warm as we see for a while.

2.1C here currently, calm, broken cloud, 1.5mm over overnight rain making everything look damp. Not quite sure why it's all sweetness and light in the MOD thread at the moment. Yes it's looking like a cool week, but mainly dry with only an outside chance of snow?

Not a million miles away from what the GFS is showing at the same time though. As I said the other day, it's all very intriguing.

And..... bubbles galore floating around unpopped this morning again as 0Z runs look better. It's hilarious. Even still, I'd better not post a picture of my dusting of snow in there this morning or someone will have a fit. Not that it's unusual for late Nov here. Currently 0.7C and yes, a little snow lying in places from overnight showers, mainly cloudless by the looks of it and doesn't seem too windy.

Much bigger market in Germany, a legal requirement to have winter tyres on during certain months too, so thier sales will be huge compared to most UK tyre wholesalers. Had a look at my tyres the other day and I'm going to need a new set fairly soon, still legal but 2 yrs old and tread getting lower than perhaps optimal for an Aberdeenshire winter. Shoukd make it to the Xmas hols when I'll have more time to sort it out. Temperature here currently 3.5C with a 0.6C dewpoint, down from a high of 12.2 in the early hours. Certainly felt a lot colder outside this afternoon than yesterday, tomorrow should feel even colder.

Down from 12.2C to 7.4C here so far, winds dropping after a breezy night, not a lot of cloud around. Looking forward to potentially seeing a flurry or two of light snow tomorrow if forecasts are right. Not getting carried away with the MOD thread though, in either direction. Best I can say is that I'm intrigued at what the models are showing, but far from the point of being excited. Likely looking cooler for a while, but doubting it'll be snowy in the foreseeable, but hopefully that will come eventually.

I've absolutely no clue what to make of any of the weather models in the last day or two, there is no making sense of it. Best thing to do in this situation, when chaos reigns, both in the models and the MOD thread, is to sit back quietly and watch, possibly hiding behind a cushion, 1970s Dr Who style as a kid. @dryfieDon't give up all together, just stay out of the MOD thread and hang out here. If anything particularly exciting pops up we'll be all over it, without the southern bias. Most of us have been bitten by the MOD thread and had a slap or two on the wrist as a result (some more than others, not naming names ).

It's a real 'car crash' in there this morning. Meanwhile in the real world, currently 3.7C, calm, and with the cloud looking broken enough that I'll likely be able to see the sun once it gets above the horizon.

Looks at date... 21st Nov... it's going to be a long winter on the MOD thread. All this 'which model won' is tiring and pointless. Over the course of time each will perform better than the others at different times, each has its biases. Most of us recognise the ECM can have a tendency to be too flat at times, and the GFS a tendency to be too amplified, at least concerning our little corner of the globe. We also see patterns of modelled northerlies across the UK adjust east as they get closer, it happens time and time again. All the main models are useful if you look at them as different pieces of a larger jigsaw. The knee jerk reactions suggesting that we discount the GFS from now to eternity, for example, because it 'got it wrong' this time (not that I agree it did) , would be akin to trying to do the jigsaw with a substantial portion of the pieces missing.

I tested +ve for Covid this morning despite thinking I only had a mildish cold the last couple of days. Genuinely shocked to find out that means I'm persona non grata at work for the rest of the week. Oh well, at least that means I can enjoy some fresh air, get the garden tidied up etc... looks outside.... oh bugger. Looking like I'm stuck inside reading the bickering going on already in the MOD thread. Today so far.. high of 9.1C around noon but then rain started and temp had dropped off to 6.9C, pretty misty even before the rain (3mm so far) kicked in anyway.