Single Status Update
I don’t get how comparing past Nina winters leads to your assumptions going forward, one only has to look back at previous ENSO states and you can see a cluster of colder than average winters with both weak and moderate Nina’s. Granted the sample sizes are small but then we don’t have a great deal of data to actually work with.
Besides which how often have more favourable teleconnective signals been way of the mark when other variables appear to override these. Don’t get me wrong I’m not knocking the science behind them but it seems that there are still far too many other variables at play when it comes to forecasting beyond 10 days.
Please don’t take this as a dig at your good self as I find your post fascinating for all the right reasons.?
Thanks for the comments.
Its the precise relationship that the atmospheric circulation adopts to the ENSO base state that frameworks the pattern. So that means its quite feasible to have a disconnect in the atmosphere to a predisposed ENSO state (in this case La Nina). The disconnect implies that an opposite forcing to the underlying one exists, at least for a time, and what I have repeatedly been trying to explain is that high amplitude tropical forcing very often is the catalyst for it - "destructively interfering" with the base state.
The point of raising these anomalies to a rule is to try to assist and widen the discussion, not to make a forecast (I never attempt those personally) and suggest it is/isn't going to snow. The drivers evolve the models. The models do not evolve the drivers. Furthermore, the MJO etc are intraseasonal phenomena with recurrence timelines which can be used to anticipate forcing on global weather patterns. Of course they are not the be all, but they are highly useful to help framework how NWP may evolve.
Last of all, but perhaps most important of all wrt the context of the MOD thread, they exist ad apply all year around and not simply at a time of year when it might snow...But I accept that is not how various members of the MOD thread see things, and why its probably only worth mentioning any of these phenomena when it might get cold and snow. Good reasons why I don't get involved anymore with that cut and thrust and sit by the sidelines, to which I now return.