DanDorsetUK

Well for me its hold your breath time with the key date having been from the 1st as to wether we get a response down to lower levels! Still awaiting full confirmation of this yet. By the end of next week we should know one way or another.

Give it till Wednesday next week and if it still looks the same then its the time for plan B. We can all chip in and pull this off ourselves! Snow machine rental!

First signs of a good response in fi by gfs this evening. I was expecting to see this more Monday to Wednesday think this could be a first stage response to ssw signals although still expecting the pv to be less organised but a good step in the right direction!

It could be the ecm is simply playing with a "possible" qtr scenario! Dont forget the 1st is the main date things really get going where as the gfs is clearly saying no to a qtr. Don't forget there's often a lag of up to two weeks for a strat warming to trigger a tropospheric response down to lower levels. I'm not paying much interest in output untill monday to Wednesday at the earliest when a qtr is more likely to be picked up.

Keep an eye on the final frames of the gfs and see how quickly it changes from a flat zonal to a disrupted vortex. The info is avalible to the models. Look at the last run for example from the 10th to the 13th the signs have already been there on a few runs and its in fi because that's where it belongs there will be no response from the ssw till the 7th. We're a long way from seeing the full effects in the models if at all yet. Hence I give it Monday for it start appearing better in fi.

Yes they are which is why some of the fi charts have given hints of it and for good reason! It's all still fi! The effects haven't appeared in the models because it's to far out and not enough data for the models to start processing from the lower unless there is a qtr which at the moment there isnt so all you'll get is model bias in fi for the time being untill effects start to show at lower levels.

For anyone watching these models thinking nothing is going to happen and no sign of cold etc think again! Models will NOT pick up on any propagation until the bitterly cold air from the actual polar Vortex filters down from the stratosphere to our atmosphere! This is forecast to happen around the 7th Jan. And for anyone thinking the SSW isn't happening, It's already happening Jet stream has already reversed in some places: Bering Sea shows easterly zonal wind at 10 hPa. The models WILL change in a few days time. It's all still to early to be seen! Some on here seem to be writing things off before it's even begun.

Nothing has really changed just a slight rewording with mid Jan always being the point of interest. The colapse of the high always looked the likely outcome. A sudden response to the ssw looks unlikely this time around we are playing the long game and waiting 14 days to see the effects. I'm not expecting anything to been seen in the models just yet. Patience is the key and everything is as we were.

Everone just wait till Monday night. Give it till then at least before the doom posts. Looking out the window now on the south coasts feels like the calm before the storm everything so still and with touch of cold in the air. Game still very much on yet.

The calm before the snow storm fear not! Everything is resetting to default for a nice starting position. Everyone stay calm and watch it unfold before your very eyes in next week.

Clearly it's not so much a lack of data this time of year but hung over data inputters with double vision! Give them a few days to come round after the new year!

T324 yes I know but that is the likely position a ssw will be starting to show on gfs and that in my opinion is a great chart going forward. I'd expect to see major changes come next week just because the charts or not showing any real effects from a ssw now doesn't mean it won't come next Monday at the earliest. I'm keeping optimistic were see sudden changes yet.

Surely it's still safe to assume there is no ssw being picked up by the models yet. We are still to far out. The gfs yesterday gave a slight glimmer of breaking up the pv in fi. I'm going to say by next Sunday or Monday the ssw will start to show at the earliest. A default reset might not be so bad before the main event.

Thought I'd post the final frame from the gfs tonight... Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Sums things up nicely at the moment.

Silence says it's all. Gfs couldn't be more opposite if it tried and back to square one. Groundhog day again!

Slightly less engery south of Greenland on gfs and a small shift west so far of the high with slightly more waa being pumped towards greenlgreen. Could be a better run coming up.

The 7th of January has always been the turning point in my opinion we are still 13 days away and 5 days left of December. The fact we are seeing changes this early can surely only be a good thing with an attempt at a possible qtr being modelled by the gfs. I'm far more optimistic of a better outcome by mid January and much more optimistic that we will start to see some eye candy runs in the next few days.

It's the trends since last night that look good on the gfs despite it ending flat and zonal but surely that's just the gfs bias. Clear signs that the ssw is starting to be seen here. And a couple of "potential' ridges appearing in fi. It's the changes in the 5 to 7 day range that is important.

Wow! Here comes the heights at end. This is a massive change and opened the door to cold. Game very much on!

Surely thats a qtr if I ever saw one? PV heading east. PV splitting? PV smashed to pieces!

It's actually a better run despite the heights dropping quicker there is a path opening! Look north east pv dropping. Big sudden changes in the gfs now being seen I feel.

Already better heights on 6z gfs as early as T96. Collapsed quicker on this run.

Looks another step in the right direction from gfs 00z with less reorganizing of the pv and a renewed height attempt in the final frames. I'm liking the trend in the gfs.

Watching the gfs it was far to progressive with the breakdown! Clearly smelt the coffee panicked and couldn't cope and reset to default. Can't be discounted but highly unlikely to regroup as fast as it did. Fully expecting to see big changes in the next 48hrs. If anything that was a clear indication the gfs is starting to see the developments.