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Recretos

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  1. Recretos
    Come to think of it, latest JMA monthlies/seasonals are equally bad and actually even worse. So far the modelling is far from good, but it is tho important to notice that seasonal models do not have particulary good vertical resolutions or model tops, so they could be undershooting the strat. importance a little bit. We will see, like always.
  2. Recretos
    I was in a hurry, so I forgot to add the point. Gottolovethisweather has pointed it out pretty good, mainly the difference with last year, and the QBO, and of course that the warming we are seeing in the FI right now is not something out of the ordinary. Tho I admit it is a little bit peculiar to say the least. And as fat as Atlantic or Eurasian waves go, we must not forget on the importance of PDO, with very decent correlations. The vortex does seem to have a whole lot of negative attributes this year joined in against him. Lets hope they win.
  3. Recretos
    Time for some quick comparisons, since the GFS is pushing in some top level warming. I will be comparing this years forecast with last two years. Since NCEP has only data up to 10mb for reanalysis, I decided to use the ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis dataset. Also I have to note that GFS charts are only forecasts, and are subject to change and bias. So keep that in mind that we are looking at some general picture as far as GFS goes. First we have 1mb temperature. 2012 is the most similar to our forecast, while 2013 is in its own world. 1mb Geopotential height. Here the 2012 is also closest with an Eurasian wave 1. Notice the +height bias in the GFS forecast with the strong heights towards south. Next up, 5mb temperature. Here there is some difference, but still the 2012 is the preferred closer choice. 5mb Geopotential height. Same story as above, including the +height bias in the GFS. Last but not least, zonal mean zonal wind component. ERA has some faults at 2mb, but it doesnt mean anything really. 2012 is the closest here, mainly due to the -QBO. Vertical scale for GFS is in pascals, so keep that in mind (100pa = 1hpa = 1mb). A post in a hurry, but a post nonetheless. Cheers
  4. Recretos
    Just some test stuff after the re-setup of my computer and software. Latest GFS anomalies. Tho the forecasts at this range are less skillful and biased, it still gives the general idea that we are seeing in the past days. And GEFS forecasts which tend to agree with the wave 1 and slightly displaced vortex to begin with. Regards
  5. Recretos
    Great new topic and the intro post. I also think we should have a lot to write about this season. I will start producing my own graphics once I setup my computer and all the mumbo jumbo software again. I will probably start out with some reanalysis and correlations. In the meanwhile, 12z GFS is a fun run. edit: It looks like the 12z GFS is missing a deal of ozone data in the input fields, that could affect the FI down the line. Just a thought.
  6. Recretos
    Nice wave 1 intro into the new season.
  7. Recretos
    It does seem to be FW actually. Hope is something I have this year and I look forward to the new thread. Should be a blast.
  8. Recretos
    Just some FI GFS stuff going around... The zonal mean zonal winds in comparison with the same date yesterday (from ECMWF reanalysis). Regards
  9. Recretos
    I guess its time to slooowly get this show on the road. All my graphics will be in a bit higher resolution this season, and perhaps a few new visualizations.
  10. Recretos
    The "negative" jet is quite strong at 10mb at 10N lat. across the globe. And will remain so for a while, as we are deep in the warm season. As for the QBO it will of course remain well in the negative waters. Regards.
  11. Recretos
    Exactly. I added the "384h" timestamp on the graphics. Latest runs are trying to keep at it, some more, some less. I made the full globe profile to give the idea of the QBO also, which is kinda in a weak +ve mode (max. 12m/s +ve zonal component) and slowly receding, with the stronger -ve phase already waiting for its turn. Notice also how the south pole is forecasted to be in the initial stages of the cold season, which is normal for second half of March. Temperature wise, the expected shift in the temperature "balance of power" is leaning more towards the N. hem. the more we go into spring. It is most evident in the upper parts of the stratosphere. Speaking of upper strat, it is fun to watch how the upper layers of the stratosphere always have more dynamics than the mid levels, due to all the wave dispersions and other processes. It almost gives a feeling of its own topography (which would kinda make sense). Tho this is only a forecast, it is a good example. Another thing evident on the 18z (and some previous runs), is that warming "blob" in mid-upper strat, which is not really related to the general slow warming of the strat. in spring. It is seems to be a result of E. Asian activities. An actual strato warming (what else ). It is more notable on the lat/lon cross sections, with really obvious and expected tilting. Normally I wouldn't to this for FI in just any run, but I am already testing this for the next season, trying to look at temp. profiles over MT/FT events. The control run from the JMA weeklies was also trying to have a go at something in this range, with a decent Z-component of the EP-flux in the 40-5 layer. Bring on the next season, so I can put all these graphics into real use! Best regards.
  12. Recretos
    Yes they are (by full runs I meant the full vertical and temporal resolution ), but in gridded format only.
  13. Recretos
    It does kinda appear to be the case tho. Looking at GFS/GEFS recent scenarios, there is no way that the vortex can recover back to the extent that the zonal mean zonal component would be positive in the mid-upper strat. And the entire globe, and the south pole strat, that is way underway into the next cold season. Note: The max/min data is for the global scale. Best regards.
  14. Recretos
    I went over the full CFSv2 dailies/monthlies output, including this exact same run that you have presented, and I cant say that the FW actually helps with the situation on that chart. Looks like a fluent FW with the strat. kinda "detaching" itself, unlike in winter months when the coupling is at max. and the disruptions and warmings have much more effect. Edit: Besides, there is only one scenario on that chart, while CFSv2 has at least 4-5 scenarios on a daily basis to begin with. (4 as ensemble members)
  15. Recretos
    I've also gathered a few graphics from different centres, which have a bit weird "consensus", so to speak. It might be the current trends affecting the models too much. It certainly wouldn't be the first time. http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/spring-2014-current-model-outlook-2/
  16. Recretos
    Nothing much on the parallel GEFS version. Ensemble mean:
  17. Recretos
    Kinda like that, yes.
  18. Recretos
    Not only if it verified, but if it would actually have an effect on the trop., re. the heights, propagations, etc,... Just like this last warming one week ago when a lot of people ignored the entire atmosphere profile and was holding onto that 10mb temperature, expecting a blockage of the Atlantic. On the other hand, I was calling this warming as an actual "helper" of the Atlantic and that it will help to send more energy into the Atlantic sector down the line. As for the FI, GEFS has a new wave1 warming, that would eventually lead to the FW if it verifies. But since this is FI, I wont go into more details for now. The positioning through the atmosphere does seem less favourable for intense Atlantic pattern down the line and this coincides with the "new dynamics" on the latest ECM32 from Thursday. The shift of the core would take some pressure of the Atlantic region, possibly allowing the S. Atlantic ridge to come out of hiding.
  19. Recretos
    In the "source". GDAS of course. And some "secondary" look around other various sites. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/gdas/ Tho the site needs some time to get used to.
  20. Recretos
    About the 06z GFS/GEFS from today. It was a "red run", featuring abnormal shortage in critical modules of input data (GDAS) and a deficit in secondary data modules. All in all, pretty much half of all input data for the 6z run was on a 60-90% deficit, which is huge and the run was marked for investigation. The 12z run is much better, but it is still a "yellow run" with deficit in two satellite data modules (AMSU-B and HIRS-3). But besides this, it is a clean run.
  21. Recretos
    In my humble opinion, 5 good 99% accurate observations are much better than 20 half accurate or even false observations (just an example). When it comes to models, you want only the best data assimilation in the input data for initial conditions. You wouldn't put sand and dirt in your cars gas tank, now would you? Your car might perhaps still run, but the performance of the engine would be highly questionable, if any at all. Besides, the data assimilated by the GDAS (Assimilation system for GFS/GEFS) for example, is not really thrown directly into the model, but is checked and QA-ed. So for the usage in short term local models, I guess it would be worth experimenting with. But I am very sceptical about the usage of this additional data in the large scale models. Best regards.
  22. Recretos
    Something like that seems plausible. yes.
  23. Recretos
    @CC, not taking anything away from your post, but are you really that focused on the temperature to ignore the heights?
  24. Recretos
    Lets recap all this in a orderly fashioned way. I will just give you my interpretation (which has not changed since my last posts) using the "list" I made. Anyone can use it and fill in his/hers own view. This year, do we have a significant stratospheric warming? Not really. Is the warming propagating downwards? No.Fixed above 20mb. Possible influence of the warming on the entire trop-strat layer? No. Geopotential height only. Do we have a technical SSW? No Do we have a polar high establishing over the pole in the stratosphere? No. Do we have a split vortex? Core only Does the Gph increase greatly in the split cores? Not really Where are the 2 cores situated? Canada and Siberia Is the split long lasting? Short lasting Does the vortex reform? Yes Which core takes the dominant role after the reformation? The one in the N. Atlantic/Canadian sector. Possible effects of the main core on the troposphere? Additional cyclonic energy in the N. Atlantic sector. Possible resulting cold spells? Under the W flank of the main core - N Canada. Annex? Yes - Graphics attached bellow. Call me a "git" if you wish, but as I said in my last posts, at the present moment the only thing this warming 30km-50km above seems to be doing, is eventually helping to send more energy into the N. Atlantic/Canadian sector via the split and reformation of the polar vortex. Now I don't know if you either don't realize it, or don't want to realize it. Kind regards.
  25. Recretos
    I cant understand why people seem to believe that there is little or no tropospheric connection, when it is actually screaming out of the models. Remember what we used to say? An SSW increases the chances for cold spells, but does not guarantee it. Print it out on A4 paper in bold 48 font, and paste it on the first wall that you see in the morning. We will have the warming in the mid-upper strat, but not an SSW, and the vortex split will feature two very decent cores, with a lot of energy going into the Atlantic one. Not to mention the reformation afterparty. So the warming and the split will bring cold weather, but for the USA and not Europe at this current time. Europe is not the only continent in the world or the only place where stratospheric dynamics can cause cold spells. Just stating the obvious at present time. Seems to me that we all got a little spoiled by the last winters and the stratospheric activities. Speaking of current time, here are again some 3D vertical profiles, which might give you the idea of why the models are the way they are at the moment. ECMWF Control run: UKMO Control run: I even added a bottom up view at the end. As for the latest GFS 6z. The 20mb level got bugged on the right image, so ignore it. It is correct on the left one. These are the current model outputs. Take it or leave it. Regards.
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