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DR(S)NO

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    Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by DR(S)NO
    Can't attach correct post

    On 2 July 2016 at 10:48, knocker said:

     

     

     

    Thank you Tamara for that wonderfully concise update on the current woeful conditions ... It certainly feels like this Summer is going to be particularly unremarkable in terms of any decent spells. Feels very much like a rinse and repeat type of Summer and the wonderful weather ( up here) of June seems a lifetime away now!

    I wonder if the current patterns will have any influence when it comes to the Autumn and then Winter weather.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

    Anyone who likes settled weather will be pleased with the Ecm 12z run because it becomes anticyclonic and stays that way until T+240. As for sunshine, we would all get some and in the sunny spells it would feel pleasant enough in the strengthening March sun, nights are still likely to be chilly, especially where skies clear...at the risk of being criticized again, it looks a good run to me and the most settled spell for a long time is just around the corner!:)

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    Hey Frosty, model runs are open to anyone's individual interpretation...only once the time period has passed can it be viewed as right or wrong . I, for one, enjoy reading your views which always appear to be an honest assessment of the information available at the time.

    I pay no attention whatever to anybody's praise or blame. I simply follow my own feelings.” 
    ― Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

    Yep, 2004 was just a bog standard toppler too. However, it pees all over anything we've seen from that direction over the past few years and anything that's currently showing within the NWP. Even March 2006 saw a decent plunge from that direction. Baffling.

    Well March 11th 2006(as described below..courtesy of weather wise) was the heaviest snowfall I've seen in my area since snowfall in the 1980s. Given the right Synoptics we've still got a good few weeks of snow opportunities ...and goodness knows we deserve something after the long Autumn we seem to have had..

     

    Disruptive frontal snowfall on the weekend of the 11th-12th March 2006

     

    There was further disruption due to heavy snow on the 12th March as Atlantic fronts stalled against a well-established cold block across Scandinavia that extended towards the UK. A very cold air mass moved westward on the 11th to cover all but Ireland and Northern Ireland. Earlier in the week, numerical weather model output predicted the mild air from the Atlantic to make rapid progress eastward bringing a rapid thaw behind a band of snow that was to cross the country on the 12th.

     

    As the event neared, there was a sharp turnaround in model output in such a way that hasn't been seen for some time with the block being sustained across the UK, therefore preventing the mild air from progressing further east than the Irish Sea at the surface. Consequently on the 12th, the Atlantic fronts stalled across Wales, Northwest England and Southwest Scotland bringing some significant falls of snow to these areas overnight and during the morning of the 12th. A significant contrast in temperature was maintained across the Irish Sea throughout the day; under the persistent cloud and snow some parts of Northern England struggled to rise above freezing, the lowest maxima are outlined in Table 1 below. However, across the Irish Sea in parts of Ireland in the milder Atlantic air mass it was very mild with the temperature peaking at spring-like 13.8°C at Shannon Airport during the afternoon.

     

    Surface analysis by the UK Met Office for 00Z on 12th March 2006:

    http://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archive/2006/brack/bracka20060312.gif

     

     

    TABLE 1.  Lowest maxima recorded in the UK on the 12th March 2006

     

    Station

    Maxima (°C)

    Boltshope Park, (County Durham)

    –1.2

    Fylingdales, (North Yorks)

    –0.9

    Carter Bar (Roxburgh)

    –0.6

    Eskdalemuir (Dumfries)

    –0.5

    Thorncliffe (Staffs)

    –0.5

    Shap (Cumbria)

    –0.4

    Ponteland (Northumberland)

    –0.4

    Lake Vyrnwy (Montgomery)

    –0.3

    Loftus (North Yorks)

    –0.2

    Durham

    –0.2

    Wilsden (West Yorks)

    –0.1

    Warcop (Cumbria)

    0.0

     

    The snow fell most heavily across southwest central Scotland (with unofficial reports of 30 to 40cm of lying snow from some locations) in a strong and gusty SE’ly wind, fortunately during the late evening on Saturday and into Sunday when less people needed to travel. However, in Glasgow it left several thousand clubbers stranded during the early hours as the roads quickly became too treacherous and the usual bus and taxi services were suspended. The Garage nightclub and Central Hotel were opened to accommodate those who were stranded waiting for a taxi in the freezing conditions. 

     

    Glasgow airport was closed for much of the day as the staff fought a losing battle to keep the runways clear of snow, and rail services were decimated across the areas worst affected as the snow continued to fall thick and fast. The M74 linking Scotland and England was closed for several hours during the day to northbound traffic at Johnstonebridge, and countless minor routes across Scotland were closed for the day as they became simply impassable. Once the snow had stopped falling, there were strong winds, which drifted the snow recently cleared off the roads, back onto them. Thousands of homes were left without power at one point because of downed power lines, though these mainly in the more rural and exposed parts of Dumfries and Galloway.

     

    Snow continued to fall through much of the day leading to some large accumulations across southwest Scotland and northwest England. Notably there were several centimetres even at sea level right by the coast in Blackpool, and many areas further inland and slightly higher above sea level had much more. The highest official totals recorded at 09z were 22cm reported at Bishopton (Renfrew), 21cm at Eskdalemuir (Dumfries) and 20cm in Glasgow. The southern extent of the snow appeared to be Manchester where little or none was reported and the extent of the precipitation from the Atlantic fronts was much patchier. Nearer the coast though the precipitation was much heavier, for instance, Liverpoolwas blanketed by many inches of snow by mid-morning.

     

    During the late afternoon most of the precipitation died out or changed over to ice pellets and light rain as the mild air started to work its way east, at least above the boundary layer. It remained very cold at the surface on the night of the 12th across much of the UK (apart from Northern Ireland and the extreme west coast of Scotland), the lowest temperature recorded was only –4°C at Buxton (Derbyshire) over the snowfields but with a strong S-SE’ly wind it certainly felt like a bitterly cold night.

     

    Surface analysis by the UK Met Office for 00Z on 13th March 2006:

    http://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archive/2006/brack/bracka20060313.gif

     

    The block continued to dominate and exert its influence to the east of the country preventing the mild air from progressing much at the surface. This had the result of tightening the pressure gradient across the UK and drawing gale force S’lies across Scotland, which acted to drift the snow that had fallen during the day. Mild air was beginning to move in aloft on the 13th which led to spells of freezing rain at higher elevations under the inversion coating the snow cover in a frozen glaze, and in Scotland a thaw set in as the mild air raced in at the surface. Temperatures were slightly higher everywhere but still cold for March maxing in the 3 to 6°C range and still with the very cold wind-chill.

     

    Surface analysis by the UK Met Office for 00Z on 14th March 2006:

    http://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archive/2006/brack/bracka20060314.gif

     

    The mild air eventually moved east during the rest of the week, though making slow progress and not before another spell of snow, freezing rain and ice pellets ensued across the north and east of Englandon the 14th. A further 5 – 10 cm fell across northeastern England locally during the morning renewing difficult travel conditions on the roads affected. The heavy snowfall forced the closure of Newcastleairport during the morning causing delays on several flights from the airport, it also forced the closure of many schools in Northumberland, County Durham, Tyne and Wear and Teeside. In south Yorkshire the A57 Snake Pass remained closed for several hours because of ice and the A66 in north Yorkshirewas also temporarily closed near Scotch Corner following a serious incident. Conditions began to improve though on the 15th as pressure began to build from the east and extend a ridge from the anticyclone 

    across Scandinavia, the south had some long sunny spells where it felt a bit more like spring out of the wind and most of the wintry mix had changed back over to rain as the milder air mixed through to the boundary layer. However, during the rest of the week there were strengthening easterly winds and further unseasonably cold weather for March.

     

    Summary 

     

    The snowy spell that occurred on the weekend 11th/12th March 2006 was possibly the worst to hit the UK in March since 1995 in terms of overall extent, snow depths and disruption caused.

    • Like 9

    Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

    in Regional

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    GFS 18z and the 12z FAX charts have really gone for it on Monday. 80mph gusts at rush hour through the central belt. 

    Your spot on Catch ..in fact there's a lot of very interesting weather popping up,over the next few days. Definetely a very good chance of extreme gusts both tomorrow,Friday and Monday...and certainly  some snow risk too. Exciting times ahead:cold:

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