Tom Jarvis

is the pressure of the low lower that the models were predicting for the current time??

Definate downgrade on that chat las night they were showing 76mph gust for my area.

thanks for that fergie. will the winds still be strong in my area and is there still a chance of sting jet??

Help I'm in the purple area :0

sorry I'm on my phone so cannot see it that is why I asked for a link

Just heard that COBRA has been called to get ready for the storm

Is there a link to the chat so I can save it for tomorrow night

Jp what are is the best case scnario for my location and what is the worst case

just got what that would be in mph and it came up with 115mph gulp

well the 18z ensembles are not good 14 out of the 24 ensembles go for a low deeper than 965mb

round 2

ye the 18Z has deepened the low as well which isn't good

jp do you think the met may release a red warning for our area

18Z

this just posted by fergieweather fergieweather fergieweatherIndeed. We consider sting jet potential increasingly likely as storm exits eastwards meaning backwash winds could be most problematic. Incidentally, all models now have a good grasp of the initiating perturbation and exhibit just minor variation at that juncture. Consequently, Ops Centre note higher than usual confidence on broad story even at this range albeit range of outcomes in MOGREPS-15, EC etc still needs emphasis. I said on air tonight that one area I think will get hammered is contiguous to Lyme Bay (Dorset, S Somerset) and new high-res output doesn't alter my view.On issue of tree damage: history shows us 50 or even 45kt gusts ample to damage/truncate/topple mature trees in some situations and especially oaks with pre-existing weaknesses. Conspiring to this likely outcome on Mon is pre-conditioning of weak trees with Sunday's winds and equally, soil moisture status (EURO4 and other output adds widely 20-40mm Sat PM-Mon AM), thus reducing anchorage. So any suggestion of 60kts being insufficient to topple trees is way wide of proven reality.

I'm in that 92 MPH area and I live on top of a hill

your lucky I'm in a house that dates from the 15th centaury and is listed so the old part isn't allowed to have double glazing only single glazing which means it gets cold in winter

just had this from the met office about the possibility of a sting jet tom jarvis â€@sandle08 26m @metoffice is there a chance that the storm on Monday could have a sting jet and are you taking this into account in your forecast Met Office â€@metoffice 7m @sandle08 We have taken it into account. While there are some strong tail winds it doesn't meet the criteria for a String Jet. ^JS

oh dear

can I ask what are the chances of this storm producing sting jet and do the models take this into account. also if it were to have a sting jet what would be the wind speeds??

worse case scenario again worse than the 12Z

I am sorry you feel like that but the I am not doing for the thrill but doing it to proved food for myself and the amount of work that keepers do for the wildlife is huge. the feed that is put in feeders during winter provide food for our rarer bird species such as yellow hammers and other small birds. also wild game is some of the best food you can eat as it is low in fat and natural. been years since I have last seen them here in our area that may be due to the high populations on badgers

thanks for the update jp my shooting on Saturday is going to be fun. it will be very sporting as the birds will be moving at a very quick pace and my shooting is a bit rusty. but should be a good day even if I miss everything maybe a forecast for people who go hunting would be good as it is key to know what direction the wind is blowing when stalking deer or doing a drive on a shoot, just a suggestion.

where is mr steve mur I would like to know what he thinks of the charts at the moment