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Somerset Squall

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Everything posted by Somerset Squall

  1. As Dec10snow says, it's 4.5C here, what a massive fail!
  2. That's if it actually is snow if it gets down this far. I can confirm the pink precipitation over my area currently is not snow, but rain.
  3. Yup, it's raining. It wasn't cold enough for snow in the rain band, then it probably became cold enough for snow when it cleared, and now the temperatures have risen again and it's started raining. You couldn't make it up lol
  4. It's still 2.9C here, so if the showers stop moving either side of me, they will probably only be rain anyway.
  5. It's still 2.6C here with clear skies and light winds. Impressive cold this haha
  6. It's always the way! It's never cold enough when there is precipitation about. Except on the very rare occasion it is. The last time that happened here was December 2010.
  7. This kind of set up is a nightmare to predict, and quite often fails to deliver if you're not on high ground. I certainly wouldn't pin anything on the BBC weather app!
  8. The most interesting part of the weather today was the wind briefly turned a bit gusty. Too far west it seems, not that I was holding out much hope anyway to be fair. No way am I waiting up tonight waiting for a few possible showers to arrive lol. Quite frequently I am too far west, or two far south. Looking at the latest runs of the models, I might be too far north next week (I know it's just one run and things will likely change, but you've got to laugh!)
  9. Still just rain here, and getting lighter. 3.4C and dropping sloooowly.
  10. Wind picking up from the northwest now, temperature dropping more quickly, I do feel most of the precipitation will have cleared southeastwards before conditions are cold enough here, hoping for some wintery showers later maybe? Temp 4.8C and dropping here, and raining moderately.
  11. This thread is to discuss the ongoing Western Pacific Typhoon season and also the North Indian Ocean cyclone season of 2014. Individual disturbances and invests can also be discussed here, and an individual thread made when a system reaches Tropical Depression/storm status by JTWC or JMA. The West Pacific season has already gotten off to an active start, with 5 named storms, of which 2 have reached typhoon strength (JTWC classification), and a tropical depression. This activity has occured earlier than normal, you don't normally see these kind of number until you get into July most years. Will it continue? Well, an above normal season is forecast, in part due to the developing El Nino, which favours increased tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific due to warmer seas and generally lower shear.
  12. A late season tropical storm formed in the early hours in the central-western portion of the Southern Indian Ocean basin, 400 miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Fantala has since rapidly strengthened and has winds of 60kts according to JTWC. Further quick strengthening is expected as the storm heads westwards. It is unclear just where Fantala will end up, but Madagascar need to be wary of it, even though the country is not in the immediate firing line.
  13. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala

    Fantala became a convectionless remnant low within 24hrs of my last posting over cool waters and in dry air. Fantala's remnants have now moved out of the upwelled waters, and convection is firing once more, fuelled by the warmer water. However, shear is pretty strong, keeping the convection disorganized, so reformation into a tropical cyclone is not expected as the remnants continue to head westwards towards Tanzania.
  14. A new tropical cyclone, named Amos, has formed a few hundred miles west of Samoa and about the same distance northeast of Fiji. Winds are at 35kts. The cyclone has some deep, centralised convection and improving banding features. Amos is forecast to strengthen steadily over the coming days over warm water and low shear. In a few days, increasing shear and cooler along track sea temperatures will serve to weaken Amos. JTWC expect a peak of 60kts before this occurs. Amos is currently heading westwards on the north side of a weakening ridge to the south. A sharp turn back eastwards is expected as the southern ridge continues to weaken and a stronger ridge to the north begins to dominate. Once more, a meandering track, a common thing this year.
  15. Severe Tropical Cyclone Amos

    Amos died a death shortly after clearing Samoa, as strong shear tore it apart, which was not expected to happen. Regeneration is not expected.
  16. Severe Tropical Cyclone Amos

    Indeed Chris. Amos has accelerated eastwards at a faster pace than forecast, meaning it probably will not turn south in time to prevent a severe impact. Winds are up to 90kts according to JTWC, with no further strengthening forecast. A storm of this strength is more than capable of causing damage and flooding however.
  17. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala

    The track has shifted north again, which means that Fantala is tracking directly over waters it has has already travelled over twice. This, along with increasing shear, has negatively impacted Fantala, and the storm is looking very dishevelled, with winds down to 60kts now. Continued tracking over cool, upwelled waters will cause further weakening, and shear will increase further as Fantala approaches Tanzania. There probably won't be much left of Fantala if a landfall occurs.
  18. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala

    Fantala has turned back to the northwest, almost back over it's previous track again. Winds have increased slightly to 100kts. JTWC expect the track to remain just south of Fantala's previous track, which should allow the waters to be warm enough for some further re-intensification before Fantala runs into higher shear north of Madagascar. This will cause some weakening as the cyclone moves quite briskly west towards Tanzania. Landfall in this country is not all that common as most storms impact the coast further south in Mozambique for example. It will be interesting to see whether a) Fantala makes landfall in Tanzania, and b) just how strong it will be.
  19. Severe Tropical Cyclone Amos

    Amos has strengthened more than originally anticipated. Winds are at 75kts, and the system is developing an eye, embedded in the central dense overcast. Further strengthening is expected as Amos moves east-southeast towards Samoa, with winds of 100kts+ now expected as shear is low, waters warm and outflow very good. Rapid intensification is possible.
  20. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala

    Cooler waters caused by upwelling have caused Fantala to weaken to 95kts. A reversed track to the southeast back over where the cyclone tracked previously is happening currently, but Fantala is expected to reverse track yet again soon as the ridge to the south becomes dominant once more. Bit of a strange track again, 2016 seems to be the year of the meandering storm with Winston, Emeraude and now Fantala having erratic tracks.
  21. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala

    Fantala is still packing winds of 150kts today as it lingers north of Madagascar. The turn southeast is expected soon, but later on the cyclone could push back southwest towards Madagascar as ridging builds to the southeast once more.
  22. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala

    Fantala has become a category 5 on the SS scale with winds of 150kts. Fantala has a sharply defined eye with a solid central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops, indicating very deep convection. The turn to the southeast is delayed in comparison to what was previously indicated, putting northern Madagascar in more danger as Fantala moves closer to the coast.
  23. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala

    Fantala has undergone another round of intensification, and is now a strong category 4 on the SS scale, with winds of 130kts. Fantala could strengthen a little more in the next 12hrs before shear rises, causing weakening. As Fantala tracks back southeastwards, shear will ease, but as the cyclone pushes back over water it's already traversed, it will likely continue to weaken, albeit at a slower pace, due to moving over upwelled cooler water.
  24. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala

    Winds increased to 105kts yesterday (cat 3 SS scale) but have since fallen to 100kts as northerly shear has affected Fantala. Fantala should now strengthen again as shear lessens over he next day or so, before rising again as the track bends to the northwest in a few days time. Thereafter, a reversed track towards the southeast is expected as the ridge to the south of Fantala weakens and steering control is then resumed by a near equatorial ridge.
  25. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala

    Fantala has developed an eye and winds have increased to 80kts. Further rapid intensification is expected over the next day or two as shear remains low and outflow good. Thereafter, some weakening will probably occur as upper level conditions deteriorate as Fantala moves north of Madagascar. JTWC expect a peak of 125kts before any weakening occurs.