Snowman.

Good line of beefy showers, likely also downplayed by models which as we all know are not great at forecasting showers. Probably the only thing the Met could plan a warning for. Everything regarding the slider or channel low may as well be a dartboard for outcomes.

FI is pretty close, worrying about 120 almost seems pointless, but it the model discussion thread so anyone is free to talk about whatever time they please. Still not convinced by any output shown.

Not surprised to see models barely even developing the low. We had a similar problem in Dec 2021 as that downgraded as we came closer with the low barely developing and allowing the cold in.

Dec 2021 saw a similar situation, we had disagreements on that at 48hours from all 3 of the main models. There’s so many days till landing zone that they will trend north and south overtime. And while It may be unfavourable now, there’s good chance it’s incorrect

Important factor here is that the heights in the mid Atlantic beneath the block are more present which will divert the low further south.

Yes

Most stuggle, the face it has hood peppers of showers is a good sign. Could become organised in the flow and temps will plummet when in one.

Most likely. If you go up the country you’ll find the cold line in which you’ll probably find a lot of snow as well! Its super far out to take as gospel as these tend to change consistently and even at 48hrs out can still vary as much as a 100 miles or so. But the trend is clear for some kind of slider/channel low and the further south it is the more the UK stays cold. Best outcome is through the channel as it gives those south a snow event and allows those north to get some beefy showers as the wind changes direction. March 2013 is a classic example of this. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98450-model-output-discussion-a-cold-start-to-spring/?do=findComment&comment=4815085

Most likely. If you go up the country you’ll find the cold line in which you’ll probably find a lot of snow as well! Its super far out to take as gospel as these tend to change consistently and even at 48hrs out can still vary as much as a 100 miles or so. But the trend is clear for some kind of slider/channel low and the further south it is the more the UK stays cold. Best outcome is through the channel as it gives those south a snow event and allows those north to get some beefy showers as the wind changes direction. March 2013 is a classic example of this.

Low too far south on the 12z I think. Lots of twists and turns to come all to play for a proper channel low I think.

It appears we’re firming up on the beginnings of a cold spell, it’s still somewhat far away and if anything can explode in our face it’s a cold spell at 5 days away. Discussing the end shouldn’t be considered at this stage, we’ve seen 3 day cold snaps become a week long cold spell this winter so no point getting hung up on any model going for a breakdown

GFS 6z raises the bar by giving us a channel low. Something this setup is well known for. Once we get some cold in place any lows approaching from the SW have every possibility to repeat March 2013. While convection is likely, I think a big snow event is going to be the way of getting the goods at this time of year.

GFS fails to cut off the high, leading to a slow collapse. But great improvements earlier on.

Almost full climb down now. vs ECM Ens still had some like left so nothing confirmed yet, but nice to see.

Not bad!

Or not..

Those talking about an Easterly.. Control is about to DELIVER.

Where cloud is forecast over snow you will get sub 0 temps. March 2018 taught me that. Hell even March 2013 which had its event at mid March had the same outcome with uppers of -10 to -12. Heavy lines of snow showers will keep you in the game for some lasting snow

A lot has been said about the 12z, with the double dip reversal beginning very soon, we may now be seeing a truer picture of what’s to come. Just 2 days ago the ECM had little interest in building heights NW keeping the ridge flattened. Now all models are really going for a proper block. I don’t think it’s going to be easy but I think something will become of this.

ECM once again. Is an incredibly frustrating run, you need some trough disruption on that low just spinning endlessly in the Atlantic to allow cold to feedback West from our East. Without it, the high just sinks south.

GEM looking good too.

Ignoring the OP the control is close here. May not appear on the surface but there's a shortwave NE and it did give some trough disruption SW too.

Beautiful 6z with a direct hit.

Think we need some trough disruption, hopefully its not being picked up at this range as we close in we start to get more. The choas during Dec 2021 hangs in my mind that the models really don't do well with it.

18z has some stunners in there.