Ben Sainsbury

Uh, not my area of expertise, but looks like a few storms may develop sometime in the evening but that's about all I can give.

Already seeing some rapid convection over NW France, that looks promising for later today.

Indeed, I am a little hesitant as for any severe storms you generally want them to stay discrete or semi-discrete and when the mid-levels are fairly saturated, this can be difficult. Really want to chase today, but I'm just not sure if I can be bothered, especially since storms could be moving very quickly, talking 40mph+ possibly.

Devon, Somerset, S Wales looks best to me at the moment, but quite a lot of uncertainty at the moment. Probably relatively infrequent lightning but should be some.

Yeah I have been thinking the same. That saying looking at the GFS 06z skew-t, the mid-levels do appear to be pretty saturated. I wonder if that is having a negative effect on instability and any lightning.

Think you're most at risk from tomorrow morning 6am-ish.

Looks like fairly widespread development from AcCas across the channel. Could be quite a thundery night later on.

Yep, definite squall line.

Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

I was at the Torro conference with Dan (Staplehurst) on Saturday, therefore no forecast on that day. But I believe they've been quite busy at the moment, and with the risk of storms generally quite low, there haven't been any forecasts. That saying an increased risk of some elevated thunderstorms, particularly middle of this week, so I will keep an eye on things. Some relatively impressive CAPE (For October) coupled with decent DLS, should be a few good storms around, but details yet to be nailed down.

I'm sure there will be many thunder days to come during Autumn given the above average SSTs, but for any major (large) storm systems I imagine that's more or less it for this year. Been quite a memorable year for coastal southern areas with numerous rounds of elevated thunderstorms during the Summer months, definitely a year I'll remember for a number of reasons. I believe it actually takes us to a slightly above average thunder year! Going forward as I said there will still a few opportunities for a few decent storms. We're approaching the time of year now where under the correct setup, we can still experience low-topped supercells, an increase (possibly) in funnel clouds/waterspouts along coastal areas and classic cold-front squall lines. A pleasure as always being involved with everyone on this forum, the Storm & Convective Discussion thread is a lovely place to be with many like-minded weather enthusiasts!

Safe to say yesterday wasn't too bad! Taken near Weymouth. Managed to get down there in time as the most active part of the squall was approaching! In the 2nd photo think I managed to catch a CG just left of middle, but was taking a panorama, so it didn't capture it really.

Storms W of Brest, sign of things to come later.

Quite like yesterday I think we will likely see a few surprises! I'm gonna be heading out myself today, maybe around the Yeovil area?

That is a monster! That's what happens when you see strong DLS, organising cells into a squall line!

Think a lot of us have been pleasantly surprised tonight and I think it's a good indication of how volatile the atmosphere is at the moment. Warm, moist air streaming up from the south, with well above average SSTs, cold air aloft with the nearby low and overriding jet. A good thundery period was inevitable at some point!

Cracking shelf cloud! WOW! Just heard the loudest most shotgun-like thunder I've ever heard. Jesus.

Just saw a nice big flash, just to the right of bottom-middle for those interested! Maybe 30s behind the lightning detector.

Also to add, a fair bit more lightning than I expected. Though I'd imagine in this scenario the very strong DLS is making up for the lack of "large" CAPE.

Not sure I can justify another late night chase & if so I might hold off until tomorrow before chasing. Thing is, there are going to be so many opportunities the next few days, you'll have to pick carefully!

Quite a large wall-cloud and appears to have been a right splitter on radar, so genuinely a good case for a supercell.

Think tomorrow evening/night is more impressive for CAPE/DLS overlap than tonight personally. Very tricky forecast but the ingredients are there for almost anywhere to see a storm.

Definitely benefitting from markedly above-average SSTs too. Might be a thundery week starting tonight.

Only just seen this... Absolutely amazing photo there, what a memory being down there in Seaford!

Must've been just down the road from me then as I was in Seaford all night. Honestly so surreal when the shelf cloud went over, managed to get a short video. Forgive me it's blurry but gives an indication of how mad the front edge was. IMG_9633.MOV