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Ben Sainsbury

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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Remarkable consistency from GFS Parallel bringing another widespread snow event Tuesday night.
  2. I already get the vibe the GFS P is going to deepen the first low up a lil again and not leave it like the OP run.
  3. GFS Parallel coming next... The last few runs of the GFS P have been remarkably snowy so we shall wait and see what it lays on our tables! It has always been quite keen to deepen the low pressure for Tuesday's event!
  4. Whilst the feature at T72 on GFS 12z is a lot shallower this run compared to ICON 12z, it helps pep up the snow showers running across England so even these could be heavy and widespread.
  5. GFS Parallel a positive step forward on the 6z, low is 5mb shallower and is further south, almost like a jelly bean shape at T120!
  6. It’s certainly not a million miles away, we just really don’t want the low to deepen any further and as you could see it’s at least 5mb deeper this run which will lead to consequences later on.
  7. Quite possibly & we should all remember that whilst these lows might track quite far south, there will be numerous small features forming within this polar air bringing a few surprises at short notice. A small feature when areas of the SE last week brought to 6-7cm in places. If we see several of these move through the UK next week who knows...!!!
  8. ICON 18z bringing a snow event as a front moves eastwards at T90, this bringing the goodies to Midlands southwards. Another small slider event at T114, south of the M4 only.
  9. FV3 shows a very snowy Southern England, Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uppers well on our side of marginal.
  10. Typically when looking at precipitation type charts, if you want to approximate accumulations, normally 10mm of rain accumulating corresponds to 100mm of snowfall accumulation. So a ratio of snow 10:1 rain, therefore 10mm corresponds to 10cm of snowfall. This is ratio can vary however depending on air mass and direction of wind.
  11. Yes this! And this is where one recent event springs to mind. Until we’re at T48-72 regarding the low then I expect no less than more changes.
  12. Led the way when models were picking up the potential easterly and then led the way when it decided to drop the easterly
  13. Snowfall possibilities for the south look good on ICON 18z, from T63 through T120, the uppers remain around or colder than -5 at 850hpa so not a bad start!
  14. By T132 on the ICON 12z, the building blocks are in place for a decent north-easterly by T180... hopefully! Azores high moving westwards with heights extending towards Greenland, Arctic high beginning to edge south and low heights moving into Southern Europe.
  15. I do have slight random coverings here but obviously am much further east compared to you.
  16. Currently in Reading and waiting for this wave of showers to pass over, temps/dewpoints seem a degree or two too high unfortunately.
  17. Not sure if anyone's posted these, but EURO4 looked quite impressive for coverage of snow showers through Tuesday and the Met Office fax charts show this well. The following are for midday tuesday and tuesday night/wed, both show various troughs moving across the country showing increased precipitation and few small accumulations likely from these in places. Favoured areas look to be western areas.
  18. I'm not quite sure if EURO4 gives tomorrow's possible snow event justice. It looks underwhelming for most and feel like we should see more snow on the back-edge of the front. Thickness look in and around the 528 dam mark. Dew-points marginal at around 0 or 1'c. 850hpa temperatures look between -5 and -6'c; -7'c across parts of East Midlands. 2m Temps look around 2'c I just cannot see how these parameters represent no snow potential along the back-edge of the front, I mean EURO4 shows no snow potential whatsoever for North England southwards.
  19. ICON 6z is coming out at the moment and so far trough dropping more of a SSE direction compared to a ESE direction.
  20. As many have said already it is a knife-edge scenario! The low coming out of the US is EXTREMELY hard to model, and the likeliness of any models nailing its track and intensity down at this time is still unlikely. Until we know how it acts in the next 48 hours is crucial to what we see. If the low takes an unexpected track we could still see large changes at such a small range. I hardly see people comment about the GFS P when it does verify better than the standard GFS. Don’t forget GFS P also follows the ICON & ECM solution.
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