Ben Sainsbury

You're right, those that did have initiated a bit early. Maybe suggests atmosphere is a bit more unstable than initially thought? Purely speculating at this point.

How different it is to the other models, just 18 hours out.

AROME is VERY different to almost every other model, it's scary. AROME is my favourite convective model... Also chasing tomorrow, so I have no idea.

After a line of elevated showers/thunderstorms moves through Saturday morning across England, the UKV is going for good clearance with temperatures rising to mid-high 20s. These seemingly allow surface-based thunderstorms to develop across CS England/Midlands/E Wales, these appear to be in a moderately unstable environment coupled with strong-very strong deep layer shear. These do appear to be within the post-frontal environment which I feel is something I don't see particularly often? That saying, recipe is there for a few severe thunderstorms to develop yet again (possibly a supercell or two as well), the question is, will everything come together?

It's great to hear of all your experiences! For me personally, since a very young age I've always been fascinated by thunderstorms. Something about witnessing thunderstorms makes me feel alive. Overhead thunder has only scared me on a handful of occasions; that saying when I went chasing in the States earlier this year, those storms there were a different breed and scared me on another level.

Some impressive atmospheric profiles being modelled for Saturday, though I can't help but feel like it's very similar to what we had two weekends ago. That saying, I think already at this stage, somewhere is likely to see some active thunderstorms.

Yep, deep convection now. Also in York.

You’re right. Z & UTC are basically the same. So in the model 12Z/UTC would correspond to 13:00BST etc.

Overnight, the models have toned back on the speed of the front a smidge, so a slightly more widespread risk imo vs yesterday model runs.

ECM 12z has slowed down the front a little, allowing it to have better engagement with the high Theta-W plume. Has thunderstorms as far south as Peterborough late tomorrow evening. May have cherry-picked the model, to fit my agenda Anyway, I'm off to drive up to York now for tomorrow chase. All the best tomorrow for those chasing or in the warning area!

Thanks for filling me with confidence before making my drive up to York later this evening

We're still only taking about a couple hours difference from this being a bigger and more widespread event, so it's still not out the realms of possibility.

Either way, the cold front should begin to organise over the next 6 hours or so, so hopefully we'll have a better idea on the timing of the front when the 12z runs are out later.

Timing of the cold front needs to chill, otherwise we're going to be left with nowt at this rate. Looking a very tight affair at the moment.

Very much so. Last 24 hours, models have trended on front moving through a bit quicker. That saying if we're talking severe potential, I'd rather too quick than too slow, as at least we'll have storms in their discrete stage before things get a bit messy. Hopefully, models trend a bit the other way tomorrow. But even then, I am a little more hopeful that high pressure to our east might be a bit more stubborn and I doubt the models will have a good grasp on timing, even during Sunday itself!

stormforecast.eu for Sunday.

UKV 03z looking exceptional for Sunday afternoon, I'm not gonna lie...

UKV now on board for Sunday. Shows warm-sector development, looking impressive! Northern England favoured.

Cracking Skew-T this, for Sun 1500 for C England.

CAPE yeah! The front arriving from the west, results in strong southerly winds ahead of the front, advecting a warm moist airmass over us. However, if the front arrives too soon, then less daytime heating, lower CAPE. If the front arrives through the afternoon, we get maximised daytime heating and much higher CAPE. The strong southerly winds ahead of the front will provide strong wind shear, which combined with large CAPE can lead to strong-severe thunderstorms. Which is why this setup is very knife-edge!

I have seen! Don't want to get my hopes too much as it's only Wednesday. Timing will have to be perfect to maximise severe potential.

UKV 15z looks pretty naughty, I wonder if we're underestimating tonights potential? 1000J/Kg of MUCAPE overlaid by 30-40kts DLS is pretty decent historically for elevated thunderstorms. Regardless, some very heavy rainfall in places likely.

Having a look at both the image and radar, I'm not really seeing much, if anything, to support a supercell unfortunately. I'd be inclined to go with scud to be honest, as it doesn't seem to resemble a wall-cloud and there doesn't appear to be any obvious rotation.

Convection should be pretty explosive tomorrow, with large 3CAPE (Cape in lowest 3km) so I’d debate it’s better to be in Hampshire than say the Sheffield region. But anyway, have to see!

Hampshire may very well be the first place for initiation of surface based activity tomorrow!